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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Astec Industries, Inc. (XNAS:ASTE) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
ASTE
Name:
ASTEC INDUSTRIES, INC. (XNAS:ASTE)
Sector:
- 32800.00K
Industry:
Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery
CEO:
Mr. Barry Ruffalo
Total Employees:
4,041
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A
Technological advancement compared to industry is 63.34% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF ASTEC INDUSTRIES, INC.(ASTE) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND FARM & HEAVY CONSTRUCTION MACHINERY INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
37.64
One Month Price Target:
$37.93
Six Month Price Target :
$39.4
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$41.17
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$37.47
Price Upper limit ($) :
$37.84
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$35.41
This week:
$32.66
This month :
$27.68
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
846.92M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
22.86M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
14.92%
-15.24%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$47.98
$43.25
$27.30
$32.03
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$41.71
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$40.70
$33.55
$34.58
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
ASTE
Sharpe Ratio:
0.81%
Comparison:
ASTE, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -60.05% lower than the industry
& is -64.30% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
ASTE
Daily returns:
0.03%
Weekly returns:
0.16%
Monthly returns:
0.65%
Yearly returns:
21.02%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -62.98% below industry average
Classification:
ASTE, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.9
Statistical test of Returns:
ASTE has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.90%
Weekly Volatility:
6.48%
Monthly Volatility:
12.96%
Yearly Volatility:
44.89%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.90%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -69.11% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.92%
Weekly VaR:
-13.24%
Monthly VaR:
-26.47%
How Much Can the price of
ASTE
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-23%
Worst case (decline):
-91.70%
This translates to price declining to:
$28.97
This translates to price declining to:
$3.12
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
ASTE is a 86.83% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 60.06% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -14.00% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
ASTE
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.39
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
-
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
-
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.393
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.717
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.679
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.277
Beta is 9.17% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.134
Beta is 22.92% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
4.92%
Sustainable growth rate is -63.77% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.049
Alpha is -148.63% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -313% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
ASTE
Equity cost of capital:
0.127
Equity cost of capital is 16.31% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
12.69%
Before-tax cost of debt:
650.00%
After-tax cost of debt:
513.50%
Overall debt rating:
Non-investment grade (junk/speculative grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
513.50%
WACC is 27.96% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$48.28
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.31
Annual revenue growth rate is -158.55% below industry average
EPS:
$0.57
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-6.36%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -178.98% lower than the Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 7.46%
Equity growth rate per share is -92.09% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$0.01
EBITDA per share
$1.85
Valuation Analysis Today of
ASTE
P/E Ratio:
3712.03
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
40.94
P/E ratio is 8967.76% higher than main peers & is 14271.13% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $14.72
ASTE is 155.65% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $121.83
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $3.99
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.78
Price to sales ratio is -57.28% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.31
-
Price to free cash flow ratio is -33.31% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-129.86%
Net income growth rate is -363.64% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
Dividend yeild: 1.25%
Previous Dividend: $0.12
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.12
Previous Dividend: $0.47
Expected next dividend best case: $0.12
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.12
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.11
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.83%
Expected next dividend payment date: 25/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 08/11/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 27/07/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 27/05/2022
Previous dividend record date: 13/05/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 28/04/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-12--$0.12
2021-11-09--$0.12
2021-05-10--$0.11
2022-03-09--$0.12
2021-08-10--$0.11
2021-03-10--$0.11
Dividend growth rate is -98.81% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
0.03%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-16.96%
Debt to assets ratio:
0.02%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-11.82%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -99.95% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
32.62
Interest coverage ratio is 23.42% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
0.00%
-
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.538
Statistical significance of correlation:
ASTE has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.555
Stock price is -3.15% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.555
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.034
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.057
Kurtosis
4.532
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.085
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
ASTE
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
90%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
1.60%
Operating profit margin is -130.76% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
90%
Effective Tax Rate:
-11.76%
Effective tax rate is -118.25% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
2.01%
Return on equity (ROE) is -86.29% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
1.40%
Return on assets (ROA) is -69.77% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
2.63
Current ratio is 7.08% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
44.4
Cash conversion cycle is -8.42% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 4.6 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-6.06%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
273.2K
Each employee generates -48% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
10.5K
Each employee generates -116% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
3.3K
Each employee generates -104% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 8.1K
Each employee generates -350% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
66.2K
Each employee generates -350% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- -100.00%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -206.08% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
ASTE
SUN COUNTRY AIRLINES HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:SNCY)
FORTERRA, INC. (XNAS:FRTA)
H&E EQUIPMENT SERVICES, INC. (XNAS:HEES)
MICROVAST HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:MVST)
AEROVIRONMENT, INC. (XNAS:AVAV)
THE SHYFT GROUP, INC. (XNAS:SHYF)
GXGXW
MYR GROUP INC. (XNAS:MYRG)
TRIMAS CORPORATION (XNAS:TRS)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�13%
Buy�0%
Hold�17%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
1.10B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
854.70M
249.30M
20.70M
-
208.10M
-
1.00M
229.80M
300.00K
1.30M
29.30M
42.40M
17.70M
13.20M
11.90M
- 1400.00K
13.20M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
6.70M
Differed Income Tax :
- 4000.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
- 800.00K
Change in Working Capital :
- 15600.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
-
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 9600.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 11600.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
300.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
111.70M
6.10M
117.80M
137.90M
352.90M
67.10M
675.70M
164.00M
-
-
-
-
103.70M
267.70M
-
943.40M
99.70M
-
-
69.80M
87.00M
256.50M
200.00K
29.30M
29.50M
-
286.00M
-
4.10M
-
653.30M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
1.08B
657.40M
943.40M
-
200.00K
- 111500.0K
-
- 400.00K
- 11700.00K
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
134.40M
- 9600.00K
- 23200.00K
- 32800.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
ASTE
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$41.38
$575.83
$629.76
$688.74
$753.25