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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Assurant, Inc. (XNYS:AIZ) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
AIZ
Name:
ASSURANT, INC. (XNYS:AIZ)
Sector:
- 542200.00K
Industry:
Insurance�Specialty
CEO:
Mr. Alan Colberg
Total Employees:
15,600
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A
Technological advancement compared to industry is 45.69% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF ASSURANT, INC.(AIZ) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND INSURANCE�SPECIALTY INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
158.9
One Month Price Target:
$159.39
Six Month Price Target :
$161.84
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$164.78
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$158.4
Price Upper limit ($) :
$159.57
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$151.88
This week:
$143.19
This month :
$127.49
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
8.44B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
53.21M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
14.15%
-19.74%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$191.49
$176.48
$126.31
$141.32
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$171.60
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$168.40
$146.16
$149.40
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
AIZ
Sharpe Ratio:
2.03%
Comparison:
AIZ, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 854.39% higher than the industry
& is -10.85% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
AIZ
Daily returns:
0.05%
Weekly returns:
0.27%
Monthly returns:
1.06%
Yearly returns:
3.76%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 238.78% above industry average
Classification:
AIZ, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.78
Statistical test of Returns:
AIZ has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.18%
Weekly Volatility:
4.87%
Monthly Volatility:
9.74%
Yearly Volatility:
33.75%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.18%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -45.79% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-4.42%
Weekly VaR:
-9.88%
Monthly VaR:
-19.77%
How Much Can the price of
AIZ
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-17%
Worst case (decline):
-68.49%
This translates to price declining to:
$132.09
This translates to price declining to:
$50.08
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
AIZ is a 39.54% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 19.54% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -20.47% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
AIZ
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.55
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.531
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.75
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.408
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.59
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.74
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.879
Beta is -37.34% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.047
Beta is -47.36% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
19.49%
Sustainable growth rate is 18.53% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.058
Alpha is -188.77% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 371% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
AIZ
Equity cost of capital:
0.069
Equity cost of capital is -32.91% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
5.12%
Before-tax cost of debt:
5.01%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.96%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.96%
WACC is -36.98% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$192.40
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.68
Annual revenue growth rate is -23.04% below industry average
EPS:
$22.88
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
19.95%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 163.54% higher than the Insurance�Specialty industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$9.04
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 8.07%
Equity growth rate per share is -3.08% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$41.40
EBITDA per share
$33.70
Valuation Analysis Today of
AIZ
P/E Ratio:
18.89
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
6.4
P/E ratio is 195.41% higher than main peers & is 168.84% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $160.79
AIZ is -1.17% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $72.25
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $44.28
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.83
Price to sales ratio is -70.27% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.68
Price to free cash flow: 17.58
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
438.81%
Net income growth rate is 235.93% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 2.76%
Dividend yeild: 1.70%
Previous Dividend: $0.68
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.68
Previous Dividend: $2.70
Expected next dividend best case: $0.70
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.66
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.65
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.78%
Expected next dividend payment date: 19/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 29/08/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 08/10/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 20/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 31/05/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 05/12/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-27--$0.68
2021-11-26--$0.68
2021-05-28--$0.66
2022-02-25--$0.68
2021-08-27--$0.66
2021-02-19--$0.66
Dividend growth rate is -175.47% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
43.87%
Net debt to equity ratio:
18.96%
Debt to assets ratio:
6.67%
Net debt to assets ratio:
2.88%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -80.73% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
16.25
Interest coverage ratio is 358.34% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-51.10%
Annual debt growth is 1269% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.618
Statistical significance of correlation:
AIZ has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.587
Stock price is 5.26% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.587
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.032
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.041
Kurtosis
17.089
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-1.149
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
AIZ
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
0.07%
Operating profit margin is -99.78% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Effective Tax Rate:
19.74%
Effective tax rate is -9.43% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
26.98%
Return on equity (ROE) is 25.39% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
4.10%
Return on assets (ROA) is -35.12% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.1x
Current Ratio:
0
-
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 1.1 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
0.92%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
656.3K
Each employee generates -36% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
114.9K
Each employee generates -79% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
86.9K
Each employee generates -77% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 34.8K
Each employee generates -132% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
752.4K
Each employee generates -132% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
AIZ
BANK OF CHILE (XNYS:BCH)
REINSURANCE GROUP OF AMERICA, INCORPORATED (XNYS:RZA)
VOYA-PB
Banco Santander Mexico SA Institucion de Banca Multiple Grupo Financiero Santander Mexico (XNYS:BSMX)
CULLEN/FROST BANKERS, INC. (XNYS:CFR)
Banco Santander-Chile (XNYS:BSAC)
FIRST AMERICAN FINANCIAL CORPORATION (XNYS:FAF)
UWM HOLDINGS CORPORATION (XNYS:UWMC)
Woori Financial Group Inc. (XNYS:WF)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�4%
Hold�8%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
10.24B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
-
-
-
5.39B
-
-
-
-
110.30M
177.50M
1.79B
-
1.35B
760.70M
150.20M
1.35B
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
47.30M
Differed Income Tax :
26.10M
Stock Based Compensation :
12.40M
Change in Working Capital :
- 754000.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 198000.00K
Other Working Capital:
- 285000.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
21.60M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 501100.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 41100.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 991500.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
1.25B
7.03B
8.28B
8.34B
-
-
-
585.30M
2.57B
1.18B
7.40B
-
-
11.74B
44.76B
33.02B
5.28B
-
-
-
-
-
2.20B
-
2.20B
30.20B
28.00B
600.00K
3.98B
- 485300.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
9.48B
5.02B
33.02B
14.44B
2.20B
952.1M
1.04B
- 23800.00K
- 13300.00K
-
-
- 230000.00K
- 37400.00K
- 10100.00K
- 277500.00K
- 4100.00K
- 803900.00K
1.25B
2.05B
- 501100.00K
- 41100.00K
- 542200.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
AIZ
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$165.60
$286.72
$297.34
$308.36
$319.77