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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Aspen Technology, Inc. (XNAS:AZPN) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
AZPN
Name:
ASPEN TECHNOLOGY, INC. (XNAS:AZPN)
Sector:
32.26M
Industry:
Software�Application
CEO:
Mr. Antonio Pietri
Total Employees:
1,897
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -97.06% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF ASPEN TECHNOLOGY, INC.(AZPN) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND SOFTWARE�APPLICATION INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
208.57
One Month Price Target:
$209.96
Six Month Price Target :
$216.92
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$225.26
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$207.84
Price Upper limit ($) :
$209.8
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$196.99
This week:
$182.68
This month :
$156.79
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
13.39B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
64.43M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
29.08%
-13.24%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$262.25
$237.28
$154.89
$179.86
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$229.15
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$223.83
$187.92
$193.31
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
AZPN
Sharpe Ratio:
4.02%
Comparison:
AZPN, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 316.89% higher than the industry
& ratio is 76.30% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
AZPN
Daily returns:
0.12%
Weekly returns:
0.60%
Monthly returns:
2.40%
Yearly returns:
9.94%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 189.37% above industry average
Classification:
AZPN, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.46
Statistical test of Returns:
AZPN has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.76%
Weekly Volatility:
6.17%
Monthly Volatility:
12.35%
Yearly Volatility:
42.78%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.99%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -64.06% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.55%
Weekly VaR:
-12.41%
Monthly VaR:
-24.83%
How Much Can the price of
AZPN
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-21%
Worst case (decline):
-86.00%
This translates to price declining to:
$165.65
This translates to price declining to:
$29.19
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
AZPN is a 75.23% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 50.12% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -23.18% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
AZPN
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.19
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.987
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.396
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.875
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.589
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.65
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.675
Beta is -28.91% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.335
Beta is -10.83% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
35.54%
Sustainable growth rate is 14.25% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.174
Alpha is -839.04% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 1111% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
AZPN
Equity cost of capital:
0.113
Equity cost of capital is -8.06% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
8.30%
Before-tax cost of debt:
1.92%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.51%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.51%
WACC is -1.72% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$10.76
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
19.41
Annual revenue growth rate is -57.82% below industry average
EPS:
$4.02
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.44%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -98.39% lower than the Software�Application industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$3.69
-
-
Debt per share
$4.59
EBITDA per share
$5.25
Valuation Analysis Today of
AZPN
P/E Ratio:
55.47
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
35.13
P/E ratio is 57.93% higher than main peers & is -68.77% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $713.94
AZPN is -70.79% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
19.39
Price to sales ratio is 69.04% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
19.41
Price to free cash flow: 56.48
Price to free cash flow ratio is -64.13% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
128.64%
Net income growth rate is -47.32% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
42.74%
Net debt to equity ratio:
11.15%
Debt to assets ratio:
22.41%
Net debt to assets ratio:
5.84%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -59.16% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
54.3
Interest coverage ratio is 2.22% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-29.49%
Annual debt growth is -103% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 1.33%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.411
Statistical significance of correlation:
AZPN has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.503
Stock price is -18.38% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.503
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.012
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.019
Kurtosis
20.98
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
1.396
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
AZPN
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
366%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
42.56%
Operating profit margin is -322.13% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
366%
Effective Tax Rate:
15.40%
Effective tax rate is -41.61% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
39.27%
Return on equity (ROE) is -400.24% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
20.59%
Return on assets (ROA) is -636.11% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.3x
Current Ratio:
3.39
Current ratio is 13.16% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
168.6
Cash conversion cycle is 77.91% above industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 0.0 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
3.71%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
365.4K
Each employee generates 6% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
178.4K
Each employee generates 1560% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
143.3K
Each employee generates -922% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
17.0K
Each employee generates -319% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
374.3K
Each employee generates -319% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 2.17%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is 41.76% higher than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
AZPN
SYNAPTICS INCORPORATED (XNAS:SYNA)
PFPT
Gitlab Inc. (XNAS:GTLB)
LATTICE SEMICONDUCTOR CORPORATION (XNAS:LSCC)
Amdocs Limited (XNAS:DOX)
MKS INSTRUMENTS, INC. (XNAS:MKSI)
MONDAY.COM LTD (XNAS:MNDY)
dLocal Ltd (XNAS:DLO)
CREE
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�8%
Hold�21%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
693.09M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
57.72M
635.37M
104.63M
108.79M
235.74M
126.96M
-
340.37M
36.05M
6.23M
10.86M
338.42M
295.00M
271.83M
321.32M
49.49M
271.83M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
2.78M
Differed Income Tax :
- 53352.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
10.09M
Change in Working Capital :
29.14M
Accounts Receivables:
12.19M
Other Working Capital:
- 4858.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
4.63M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
32.69M
Investments in PP&E:
- 253.00K
Net Acquisitions:
- 350.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
9/30/21
2022
Q1
247.97M
-
247.97M
344.64M
-
17.52M
610.12M
37.01M
157.24M
43.00M
-
2.07M
470.73M
710.05M
-
1.32B
4.09M
29.28M
48.30M
53.84M
92.78M
179.99M
295.84M
3.70M
447.94M
-
627.93M
10.47M
1.82B
5.0M
- 1140719.00K
September 30, 2021 at 6:00:00 AM
398.09M
692.25M
1.32B
-
325.12M
77.2M
-
- 178.00K
- 781.00K
- 4000.00K
1.39M
- 154353.00K
-
- 6063.00K
- 163025.00K
- 558.00K
- 131677.00K
248.18M
379.85M
32.69M
- 431.00K
32.26M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
AZPN
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$232.24
$250.82
$270.90
$292.57
$315.99