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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Ashland Inc. (XNYS:ASH) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
ASH
Name:
ASHLAND INC. (XNYS:ASH)
Sector:
- 9000.00K
Industry:
Specialty Chemicals
CEO:
Mr. Guillermo Novo
Total Employees:
3,800
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -55.48% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF ASHLAND INC.(ASH) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND SPECIALTY CHEMICALS INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
99.34
One Month Price Target:
$99.9
Six Month Price Target :
$102.72
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$106.1
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$99.03
Price Upper limit ($) :
$99.78
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$94.86
This week:
$89.33
This month :
$79.32
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
5.38B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
54.14M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
10.19%
-12.13%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$120.10
$110.52
$78.58
$88.16
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$107.40
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$105.35
$91.26
$93.33
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
ASH
Sharpe Ratio:
2.53%
Comparison:
ASH, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 19.27% higher than the industry
& ratio is 10.84% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
ASH
Daily returns:
0.07%
Weekly returns:
0.33%
Monthly returns:
1.30%
Yearly returns:
24.57%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -36.43% below industry average
Classification:
ASH, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.88
Statistical test of Returns:
ASH has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.23%
Weekly Volatility:
4.98%
Monthly Volatility:
9.95%
Yearly Volatility:
34.48%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.37%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -83.28% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-4.51%
Weekly VaR:
-10.08%
Monthly VaR:
-20.15%
How Much Can the price of
ASH
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-17%
Worst case (decline):
-69.80%
This translates to price declining to:
$82.38
This translates to price declining to:
$30.00
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
ASH is a 42.22% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 21.84% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -33.79% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
ASH
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.01
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.668
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.945
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.602
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.751
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.746
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.552
Beta is -34.78% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.164
Beta is -13.05% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
4.94%
Sustainable growth rate is -82.90% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.055
Alpha is -58.84% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 352% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
ASH
Equity cost of capital:
0.101
Equity cost of capital is -9.36% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
5.99%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.48%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.96%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.96%
WACC is -10.37% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$38.38
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.95
Annual revenue growth rate is -2381.98% below industry average
EPS:
$16.68
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-25.01%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -2858.21% lower than the Specialty Chemicals industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$4.51
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 26.90%
Equity growth rate per share is 157.30% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$31.10
EBITDA per share
$22.83
Valuation Analysis Today of
ASH
P/E Ratio:
53.77
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
27.98
P/E ratio is 92.17% higher than main peers & is 43.55% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $624.82
ASH is -84.10% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $55.92
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $15.75
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
2.59
Price to sales ratio is -6.20% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.95
Price to free cash flow: 22.03
Price to free cash flow ratio is -62.78% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
109.91%
Net income growth rate is -298.81% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 1.77%
Dividend yeild: 1.24%
Previous Dividend: $0.34
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.34
Previous Dividend: $1.24
Expected next dividend best case: $0.35
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.32
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.29
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 2.08%
Expected next dividend payment date: 13/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 30/08/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 15/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 06/01/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-05-31--$0.34
2021-11-30--$0.30
2021-05-28--$0.30
2022-02-28--$0.30
2021-08-31--$0.30
2021-02-25--$0.28
Dividend growth rate is -89.87% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
60.95%
Net debt to equity ratio:
68.80%
Debt to assets ratio:
25.71%
Net debt to assets ratio:
29.03%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -52.47% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
23.77
Interest coverage ratio is 13.04% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
12.10%
Annual debt growth is -97% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.65%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.725
Statistical significance of correlation:
ASH has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.58
Stock price is 25.11% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.58
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.035
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.046
Kurtosis
5.57
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.401
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
ASH
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
131%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
9.82%
Operating profit margin is -103.49% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
131%
Effective Tax Rate:
-12.00%
Effective tax rate is -166.83% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
34.67%
Return on equity (ROE) is 20.62% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
14.63%
Return on assets (ROA) is 457.03% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.3x
Current Ratio:
1.91
Current ratio is -28.76% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
32.8
Cash conversion cycle is -46.87% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 0.0 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
0.42%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
546.8K
Each employee generates -27% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
325.3K
Each employee generates 229% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
252.1K
Each employee generates 694% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 2.4K
Each employee generates -94% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
1.3M
Each employee generates -94% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- -21.88%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -309.23% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
ASH
ELEMENT SOLUTIONS INC (XNYS:ESI)
THE CHEMOURS COMPANY (XNYS:CC)
National Steel Company (XNYS:SID)
EAGLE MATERIALS INC. (XNYS:EXP)
AVIENT CORPORATION (XNYS:AVNT)
KINROSS GOLD CORPORATION (XNYS:KGC)
UNITED STATES STEEL CORPORATION (XNYS:X)
UNIVAR SOLUTIONS INC. (XNYS:UNVR)
SUMMIT MATERIALS, INC. (XNYS:SUM)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�13%
Buy�21%
Hold�13%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
2.08B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
1.40B
683.00M
47.00M
-
339.00M
-
102.00M
488.00M
1.00M
52.00M
241.00M
1.24B
204.00M
958.00M
125.00M
- 15000.00K
958.00M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
60.00M
Differed Income Tax :
3.00M
Stock Based Compensation :
4.00M
Change in Working Capital :
- 72000.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
826.00M
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 37000.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
6.00M
Investments in PP&E:
- 15000.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 4000.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
12/31/21
2022
Q1
194.00M
-
194.00M
340.00M
530.00M
670.00M
1.73B
1.52B
1.41B
1.07B
390.00M
30.00M
398.00M
4.82B
-
6.55B
236.00M
411.00M
-
-
261.00M
908.00M
1.68B
956.00M
2.88B
-
3.79B
-
2.86B
-
-
December 31, 2021 at 12:00:00 AM
1.88B
2.76B
6.55B
-
2.10B
1.9B
4.00M
7.00M
- 8000.00K
- 11000.00K
-
-
- 17000.00K
17.00M
- 11000.00K
- 3000.00K
- 16000.00K
194.00M
210.00M
6.00M
- 15000.00K
- 9000.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
ASH
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$106.63
$343.89
$367.28
$392.27
$418.96