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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings Inc. (XNAS:ARCT) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
ARCT
Name:
ARCTURUS THERAPEUTICS HOLDINGS INC. (XNAS:ARCT)
Sector:
- 51150.00K
Industry:
Biotechnology
CEO:
Mr. Joseph E. Payne M.Sc.
Total Employees:
177
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is 8.74% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF ARCTURUS THERAPEUTICS HOLDINGS INC.(ARCT) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BIOTECHNOLOGY INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
14.32
One Month Price Target:
$14.54
Six Month Price Target :
$15.64
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$16.96
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$14.18
Price Upper limit ($) :
$14.57
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$12.01
This week:
$9.15
This month :
$3.98
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
365.42M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
26.58M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
68.06%
-54.17%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$25.03
$20.04
$3.61
$8.60
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$18.42
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$17.36
$10.21
$11.28
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
ARCT
Sharpe Ratio:
4.47%
Comparison:
ARCT, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 129.88% higher than the industry
& ratio is 96.11% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
ARCT
Daily returns:
0.37%
Weekly returns:
1.84%
Monthly returns:
7.36%
Yearly returns:
25.22%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 250.31% above industry average
Classification:
ARCT, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.27
Statistical test of Returns:
ARCT has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
8.04%
Weekly Volatility:
17.98%
Monthly Volatility:
35.95%
Yearly Volatility:
124.54%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
7.41%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -7.77% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-16.14%
Weekly VaR:
-36.09%
Monthly VaR:
-72.19%
How Much Can the price of
ARCT
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-60%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$5.78
This translates to price declining to:
$2.15
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
ARCT is a 409.50% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 336.48% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 69.09% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
ARCT
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--2.75
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.787
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
2.527
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
-
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.369
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.489
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.613
Beta is 348.01% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.152
Beta is 138.38% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.664
Alpha is 368.16% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 4227% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
ARCT
Equity cost of capital:
0.220
Equity cost of capital is 98.89% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
-
Before-tax cost of debt:
3.09%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.44%
Overall debt rating:
High AA grade (second highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.44%
WACC is 98.55% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$0.58
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.06
Annual revenue growth rate is -112.22% below industry average
EPS:
-$7.53
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
53.26%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 433.70% higher than the Biotechnology industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$1.63
EBITDA per share
-$7.35
Valuation Analysis Today of
ARCT
P/E Ratio:
-
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
95.51
-
-
ARCT is -102.12% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
24.59
Price to sales ratio is -39.29% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.06
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
257.71%
Net income growth rate is 265.11% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
23.43%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-135.57%
Debt to assets ratio:
12.66%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-73.24%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -69.97% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-91.28
Interest coverage ratio is -22.87% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
196.78%
Annual debt growth is 46% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.221
Statistical significance of correlation:
ARCT has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.34
Stock price is -34.88% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.34
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.068
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.316
Kurtosis
12.881
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.586
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
ARCT
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-1263.67%
Operating profit margin is 194.78% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Effective Tax Rate:
-
-
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-107.44%
Return on equity (ROE) is 87.40% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-58.04%
Return on assets (ROA) is 184.48% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.1x
Current Ratio:
3.05
Current ratio is -62.35% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 12.3 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-3.71%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
87.4K
Each employee generates -95% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
- 1103.1K
Each employee generates -386% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 1121.5K
Each employee generates -976% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 289.0K
Each employee generates -296% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
84.6K
Each employee generates -296% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 200.38%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -5685.36% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
ARCT
BIOVENTUS INC. (XNAS:BVS)
Pharming Group NV (XNAS:PHAR)
EPIZYME, INC. (XNAS:EPZM)
ORGANIGRAM HOLDINGS INC. (XNAS:OGI)
AERIE PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. (XNAS:AERI)
AVIDITY BIOSCIENCES, INC. (XNAS:RNA)
HEALTHSTREAM, INC. (XNAS:HSTM)
iTeos Therapeutics, Inc. (XNAS:ITOS)
ORTHOFIX MEDICAL INC. (XNAS:OFIX)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�4%
Hold�4%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
15.48M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
-
168.60M
42.44M
42.44M
-
-
211.04M
536.00K
2.14M
1.11M
- 195248.00K
- 195565.00K
- 198497.00K
- 198497.00K
-
- 198497.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
224.00K
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
7.37M
Change in Working Capital :
- 6610.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 324.00K
Other Working Capital:
- 3710.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
1.15M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 49039.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 2111.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
319.68M
-
319.68M
3.69M
-
3.64M
327.01M
12.78M
-
-
131.00K
-
2.08M
14.98M
-
341.99M
10.01M
25.91M
-
53.06M
18.32M
107.31M
43.29M
-
49.93M
-
157.24M
26.00K
- 398659.00K
-
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
167.60M
184.75M
341.99M
-
69.21M
- 250473.0K
-
-
- 2111.00K
-
-
-
-
336.00K
336.00K
-
- 50814.00K
321.76M
372.57M
- 49039.00K
- 2111.00K
- 51150.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
ARCT
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$17.01
$20.15
$23.87
$28.27
$33.49