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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Arcbest Corporation (XNAS:ARCB) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
ARCB
Name:
ARCBEST CORPORATION (XNAS:ARCB)
Sector:
- 35234.00K
Industry:
Trucking
CEO:
Ms. Judy McReynolds
Total Employees:
14,000
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -85.76% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF ARCBEST CORPORATION(ARCB) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND TRUCKING INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
78.94
One Month Price Target:
$79.65
Six Month Price Target :
$83.18
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$87.42
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$78.64
Price Upper limit ($) :
$79.58
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$73.45
This week:
$66.66
This month :
$54.38
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
1.94B
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
24.53M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
15.1%
-12.95%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$104.38
$92.43
$53.50
$65.45
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$88.55
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$86.00
$69.30
$71.88
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
ARCB
Sharpe Ratio:
5.83%
Comparison:
ARCB, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 82.07% higher than the industry
& ratio is 155.92% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
ARCB
Daily returns:
0.21%
Weekly returns:
1.06%
Monthly returns:
4.25%
Yearly returns:
31.49%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 61.94% above industry average
Classification:
ARCB, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.11
Statistical test of Returns:
ARCB has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.49%
Weekly Volatility:
7.80%
Monthly Volatility:
15.61%
Yearly Volatility:
54.07%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.98%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -43.40% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.96%
Weekly VaR:
-15.55%
Monthly VaR:
-31.11%
How Much Can the price of
ARCB
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-25%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$59.15
This translates to price declining to:
$11.84
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
ARCB is a 119.56% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 88.10% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 7.19% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
ARCB
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.60
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.961
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.359
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.315
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.5
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.526
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.48
Beta is 8.00% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.38
Beta is 15.77% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
22.58%
Sustainable growth rate is 0.49% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.369
Alpha is 95.40% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 2348% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
ARCB
Equity cost of capital:
0.141
Equity cost of capital is 11.83% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
11.60%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.16%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.71%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.71%
WACC is 21.19% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$182.88
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.97
Annual revenue growth rate is -61.11% below industry average
EPS:
$9.80
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
72.30%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 86.91% higher than the Trucking industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$8.15
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -0.23%
Equity growth rate per share is -100.18% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$11.23
EBITDA per share
$19.37
Valuation Analysis Today of
ARCB
P/E Ratio:
6.84
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
35.94
P/E ratio is -80.97% lower than main peers & is -58.64% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $162.05
ARCB is -51.29% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $36.72
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $4.16
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.43
Price to sales ratio is -97.64% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.97
Price to free cash flow: 9.69
Price to free cash flow ratio is -81.64% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
220.81%
Net income growth rate is 3772.11% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 0.76%
Dividend yeild: 0.46%
Previous Dividend: $0.12
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.12
Previous Dividend: $0.36
Expected next dividend best case: $0.13
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.11
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.08
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 5.00%
Expected next dividend payment date: 23/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 08/09/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 26/07/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 25/05/2022
Previous dividend record date: 05/11/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 27/04/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-10--$0.12
2021-11-10--$0.08
2021-05-12--$0.08
2022-02-10--$0.08
2021-08-10--$0.08
2021-02-10--$0.08
Dividend growth rate is -89.27% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
28.01%
Net debt to equity ratio:
33.07%
Debt to assets ratio:
12.46%
Net debt to assets ratio:
14.72%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -73.89% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
56.47
Interest coverage ratio is -61.48% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
10.27%
Annual debt growth is -87% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 10.69%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.333
Statistical significance of correlation:
ARCB has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.451
Stock price is -26.32% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.451
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.017
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.035
Kurtosis
1.577
Returns are more concentrated around the mean (platykurtic), compared to a normal distribution
Skewness of returns:
-0.025
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
ARCB
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
38%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
7.66%
Operating profit margin is -100.68% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
38%
Effective Tax Rate:
23.17%
Effective tax rate is 2.60% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
26.42%
Return on equity (ROE) is 58.47% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
11.75%
Return on assets (ROA) is 72.71% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.1x
Current Ratio:
1.16
Current ratio is -72.18% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
7.4
Cash conversion cycle is -74.41% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 0.2 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.06%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
320.4K
Each employee generates 22% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
33.9K
Each employee generates -33% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
18.6K
Each employee generates -21% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 2.5K
Each employee generates -147% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
96.4K
Each employee generates -147% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
ARCB
PATRICK INDUSTRIES, INC. (XNAS:PATK)
SUN COUNTRY AIRLINES HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:SNCY)
VERRA MOBILITY CORPORATION (XNAS:VRRM)
HYDROFARM HOLDINGS GROUP, INC. (XNAS:HYFM)
Central North Airport Group (XNAS:OMAB)
HWCPL
ATLAS AIR WORLDWIDE HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:AAWW)
HELIOS TECHNOLOGIES, INC. (XNYS:HLIO)
HEADHUNTER GROUP PLC (XNAS:HHR)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�46%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
4.49B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
2.87B
429.61M
-
132.47M
132.47M
-
1.14B
1.27B
989.00K
8.42M
128.69M
475.18M
343.72M
259.73M
338.08M
78.35M
259.73M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
34.82M
Differed Income Tax :
- 1417.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
2.76M
Change in Working Capital :
- 115617.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
- 3003.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 1374.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 11253.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 19471.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 12339.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
64.11M
37.02M
101.13M
698.31M
-
61.14M
860.58M
818.36M
299.01M
123.36M
-
5.32M
103.06M
1.35B
-
2.21B
340.97M
113.89M
8.36M
-
285.25M
740.11M
275.38M
147.18M
486.42M
-
1.23B
294.00K
868.91M
5.3M
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
4.14B
983.17M
2.21B
-
389.27M
325.2M
23.59M
824.00K
- 7396.00K
- 32967.00K
-
- 16506.00K
- 1978.00K
57.59M
6.14M
-
- 12512.00K
64.11M
76.62M
- 11253.00K
- 23981.00K
- 35234.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
ARCB
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$87.86
$260.50
$288.47
$319.45
$353.75