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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Aptargroup, Inc. (XNYS:ATR) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
ATR
Name:
APTARGROUP, INC. (XNYS:ATR)
Sector:
19.02M
Industry:
Packaging & Containers
CEO:
Mr. Stephan Tanda
Total Employees:
13,000
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is -2.04% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF APTARGROUP, INC.(ATR) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND PACKAGING & CONTAINERS INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
101.43
One Month Price Target:
$101.78
Six Month Price Target :
$103.55
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$105.66
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$101.13
Price Upper limit ($) :
$101.73
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$97.81
This week:
$93.33
This month :
$85.22
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
6.56B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
65.34M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
9.75%
-9.27%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$118.26
$110.61
$84.60
$92.25
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$108.12
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$106.49
$94.72
$96.37
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
ATR
Sharpe Ratio:
-0.51%
Comparison:
ATR, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -132.49% lower than the industry
& is -122.31% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
ATR
Daily returns:
0.00%
Weekly returns:
0.00%
Monthly returns:
0.00%
Yearly returns:
11.46%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -99.99% below industry average
Classification:
ATR, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.58
Statistical test of Returns:
ATR has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
1.74%
Weekly Volatility:
3.89%
Monthly Volatility:
7.78%
Yearly Volatility:
26.95%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.65%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -62.84% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-3.57%
Weekly VaR:
-7.99%
Monthly VaR:
-15.98%
How Much Can the price of
ATR
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-14%
Worst case (decline):
-55.34%
This translates to price declining to:
$87.10
This translates to price declining to:
$45.29
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
ATR is a 12.76% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is -3.40% less risky than Nasdaq(IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -27.11% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
ATR
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.62
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.558
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.789
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.422
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.525
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.57
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.205
Beta is -48.45% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.004
Beta is -38.12% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
7.35%
Sustainable growth rate is -80.45% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.074
Alpha is -617.36% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -471% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
ATR
Equity cost of capital:
0.074
Equity cost of capital is -26.14% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
5.03%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.21%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.75%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.75%
WACC is -16.43% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$50.44
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
3.32
Annual revenue growth rate is 29.74% above the industry average
EPS:
$3.29
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-1.78%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -119.35% lower than the Packaging & Containers industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$1.00
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 15.95%
Equity growth rate per share is 34.42% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$19.82
EBITDA per share
$8.81
Valuation Analysis Today of
ATR
P/E Ratio:
29.54
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
14.55
P/E ratio is 103.10% higher than main peers & is 50.24% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $64.69
ATR is 56.78% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $36.85
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $22.33
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
2.01
Price to sales ratio is 61.38% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
3.32
Price to free cash flow: 101.87
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
21.49%
Net income growth rate is -178.81% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 11.19%
Dividend yeild: 1.50%
Previous Dividend: $0.38
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.38
Previous Dividend: $1.52
Expected next dividend best case: $0.39
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.37
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.37
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.56%
Expected next dividend payment date: 16/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 26/07/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 13/07/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 18/05/2022
Previous dividend record date: 27/04/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 14/04/2022
Dividend History:
2022-04-26--$0.38
2021-10-26--$0.38
2021-04-27--$0.38
2022-02-02--$0.38
2021-08-03--$0.38
2021-01-26--$0.36
Dividend growth rate is -92.75% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
65.29%
Net debt to equity ratio:
54.57%
Debt to assets ratio:
29.38%
Net debt to assets ratio:
24.55%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -56.06% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
18.11
Interest coverage ratio is 222.20% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
1.60%
Annual debt growth is -119% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 10.03%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.651
Statistical significance of correlation:
ATR has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.556
Stock price is 17.11% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.556
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.011
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.011
Kurtosis
5.91
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.25
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
ATR
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
142%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
10.70%
Operating profit margin is 62.38% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
142%
Effective Tax Rate:
27.76%
Effective tax rate is -23.12% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
11.22%
Return on equity (ROE) is -77.72% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
5.05%
Return on assets (ROA) is -2.88% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.4x
Current Ratio:
1.91
Current ratio is 21.15% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
95.1
Cash conversion cycle is 49.59% above industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 0.0 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
6.00%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
253.5K
Each employee generates -92% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
44.3K
Each employee generates -92% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
17.1K
Each employee generates -94% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
1.5K
Each employee generates -109% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
212.7K
Each employee generates -109% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
ATR
NORWEGIAN CRUISE LINE HOLDINGS LTD. (XNYS:NCLH)
RALPH LAUREN CORPORATION (XNYS:RL)
LITHIA MOTORS, INC. (XNYS:LAD)
UNDER ARMOUR, INC. (XNYS:UAA)
KOHL'S CORPORATION (XNYS:KSS)
ARAMARK (XNYS:ARMK)
DECKERS OUTDOOR CORPORATION (XNYS:DECK)
SERVICE CORPORATION INTERNATIONAL (XNYS:SCI)
GAMESTOP CORP. (XNYS:GME)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�4%
Hold�25%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
3.30B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
2.12B
1.17B
140.05M
-
562.44M
-
96.03M
798.52M
3.58M
31.80M
236.08M
575.77M
352.46M
222.57M
307.39M
85.32M
222.57M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
58.67M
Differed Income Tax :
- 2859.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
13.36M
Change in Working Capital :
404.88M
Accounts Receivables:
- 28977.00K
Other Working Capital:
780.59M
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 444391.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
92.08M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
355.63M
717.00K
356.35M
694.37M
459.61M
131.75M
1.64B
1.28B
961.76M
-
-
-
526.99M
2.77B
-
4.41B
-
143.02M
-
-
718.47M
861.49M
1.29B
252.66M
1.55B
-
2.41B
-
-
- 338708.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
2.92B
1.98B
4.39B
-
1.44B
1.1B
1.11M
- 69533.00K
- 68421.00K
- 144345.00K
-
- 15983.00K
- 24912.00K
397.16M
211.92M
- 2871.00K
232.70M
355.63M
122.93M
92.08M
- 73058.00K
19.02M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
ATR
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$101.65
$105.90
$110.32
$114.92
$119.72