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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Appian Corporation (XNAS:APPN) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
APPN
Name:
APPIAN CORPORATION (XNAS:APPN)
Sector:
- 23994.00K
Industry:
Software�Infrastructure
CEO:
Mr. Matthew Calkins
Total Employees:
1,798
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is -5.94% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF APPIAN CORPORATION(APPN) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND SOFTWARE�INFRASTRUCTURE INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
43.16
One Month Price Target:
$43.55
Six Month Price Target :
$45.47
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$47.78
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$42.83
Price Upper limit ($) :
$43.62
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$38.45
This week:
$32.63
This month :
$22.1
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
3.13B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
72.45M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
38.59%
-27.79%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$65.00
$54.92
$21.32
$31.40
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$51.64
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$49.49
$34.65
$36.83
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
APPN
Sharpe Ratio:
2.73%
Comparison:
APPN, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 67.11% higher than the industry
& ratio is 19.87% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
APPN
Daily returns:
0.16%
Weekly returns:
0.78%
Monthly returns:
3.12%
Yearly returns:
14.38%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 160.45% above industry average
Classification:
APPN, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.67
Statistical test of Returns:
APPN has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
5.39%
Weekly Volatility:
12.05%
Monthly Volatility:
24.10%
Yearly Volatility:
83.49%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
3.14%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -41.71% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-10.91%
Weekly VaR:
-24.40%
Monthly VaR:
-48.80%
How Much Can the price of
APPN
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-41%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$25.31
This translates to price declining to:
$6.47
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
APPN is a 244.42% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 195.06% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 61.74% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
APPN
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.59
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.787
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.113
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.333
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.618
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.027
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.138
Beta is 40.09% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.112
Beta is 43.36% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.234
Alpha is 546.61% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 1489% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
APPN
Equity cost of capital:
0.141
Equity cost of capital is 30.67% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
11.76%
Before-tax cost of debt:
0.65%
After-tax cost of debt:
0.51%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
0.51%
WACC is 66.61% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$5.45
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
12.88
Annual revenue growth rate is -36.15% below industry average
EPS:
-$1.38
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
17.53%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -41.82% lower than the Software�Infrastructure industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$0.66
EBITDA per share
-$1.28
Valuation Analysis Today of
APPN
P/E Ratio:
-
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
715.46
-
-
APPN is -147.94% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
7.92
Price to sales ratio is -27.86% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
12.88
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
61.31%
Net income growth rate is -99.28% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
19.76%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-20.88%
Debt to assets ratio:
9.54%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-10.09%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -86.31% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-253.49
Interest coverage ratio is 20.12% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-2.10%
Annual debt growth is -102% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.446
Statistical significance of correlation:
APPN has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.48
Stock price is -7.03% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.48
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.048
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.152
Kurtosis
6.544
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.586
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
APPN
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
286%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-24.65%
Operating profit margin is 107.68% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
286%
Effective Tax Rate:
0.93%
Effective tax rate is -97.04% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-40.46%
Return on equity (ROE) is -137.90% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-19.54%
Return on assets (ROA) is 416.08% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.1x
Current Ratio:
1.64
Current ratio is -29.53% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
108.3
Cash conversion cycle is -3.78% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 13.9 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-7.07%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
219.5K
Each employee generates -44% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
- 51.5K
Each employee generates -179% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 54.6K
Each employee generates -361% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 13.3K
Each employee generates -167% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
91.1K
Each employee generates -167% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 38.83%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -1597.53% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
APPN
SPS COMMERCE, INC. (XNAS:SPSC)
TOWER SEMICONDUCTOR LTD (XNAS:TSEM)
EXLSERVICE HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:EXLS)
Jamf Holding Corp. (XNAS:JAMF)
DIODES INCORPORATED (XNAS:DIOD)
PAYCOR HCM, INC. (XNAS:PYCR)
FEYE
APPFOLIO, INC. (XNAS:APPF)
AVNET, INC. (XNAS:AVT)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�25%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
394.67M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
111.48M
283.19M
106.67M
96.02M
273.81M
177.78M
-
380.47M
-
365.00K
6.24M
- 92523.00K
- 97283.00K
- 98208.00K
- 99126.00K
- 918.00K
- 98208.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
1.77M
Differed Income Tax :
- 1073.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
6.94M
Change in Working Capital :
- 5202.00K
Accounts Receivables:
8.42M
Other Working Capital:
- 11945.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
109.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 20604.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 3390.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 16240.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
106.80M
53.44M
160.23M
121.63M
-
56.80M
338.66M
66.08M
27.27M
6.62M
8.18M
1.99M
53.71M
163.85M
-
502.51M
4.48M
8.14M
732.00K
146.23M
47.59M
206.43M
47.96M
3.38M
53.33M
-
259.76M
7.00K
- 280685.00K
- 5041.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
491.95M
242.76M
502.51M
61.62M
56.10M
- 50696.0K
21.73M
-
2.10M
-
-
-
-
24.40M
24.40M
40.00K
5.94M
109.90M
103.96M
- 20604.00K
- 3390.00K
- 23994.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
APPN
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$47.93
$53.06
$58.75
$65.04
$72.00