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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Appfolio, Inc. (XNAS:APPF) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
APPF
Name:
APPFOLIO, INC. (XNAS:APPF)
Sector:
- 7558.00K
Industry:
Software�Application
CEO:
Mr. Jason Randall
Total Employees:
1,600
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -104.26% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF APPFOLIO, INC.(APPF) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND SOFTWARE�APPLICATION INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
96.44
One Month Price Target:
$97.01
Six Month Price Target :
$99.86
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$103.27
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$95.92
Price Upper limit ($) :
$97.04
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$89.71
This week:
$81.39
This month :
$66.35
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
3.29B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
35.00M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
29.36%
-21.94%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$127.67
$113.39
$65.21
$79.49
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$108.74
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$105.69
$84.10
$87.19
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
APPF
Sharpe Ratio:
0.88%
Comparison:
APPF, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -8.72% lower than the industry
& is -61.40% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
APPF
Daily returns:
0.04%
Weekly returns:
0.19%
Monthly returns:
0.78%
Yearly returns:
9.94%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -6.03% below industry average
Classification:
APPF, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.98
Statistical test of Returns:
APPF has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.42%
Weekly Volatility:
7.64%
Monthly Volatility:
15.28%
Yearly Volatility:
52.93%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.42%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -58.36% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.98%
Weekly VaR:
-15.60%
Monthly VaR:
-31.20%
How Much Can the price of
APPF
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-27%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$70.25
This translates to price declining to:
$14.47
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
APPF is a 120.24% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 88.68% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -4.96% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
APPF
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.05
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.85
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.202
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.789
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.189
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.148
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.323
Beta is -20.28% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.335
Beta is -21.03% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
0.64%
Sustainable growth rate is -97.94% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.010
Alpha is -56.13% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -66% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
APPF
Equity cost of capital:
0.104
Equity cost of capital is -15.65% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
7.76%
Before-tax cost of debt:
0.79%
After-tax cost of debt:
0.62%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
0.62%
WACC is -0.18% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$11.02
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
11.69
Annual revenue growth rate is -26.90% below industry average
EPS:
-$0.40
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-69.62%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -354.52% lower than the Software�Application industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$0.18
-
-
Debt per share
$1.57
EBITDA per share
$0.73
Valuation Analysis Today of
APPF
P/E Ratio:
4111.71
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
354.52
P/E ratio is 1059.80% higher than main peers & is 2215.18% higher than the industry
-
APPF is -235.76% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
8.75
Price to sales ratio is -23.71% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
11.69
Price to free cash flow: 524.11
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-94.87%
Net income growth rate is -138.85% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
19.04%
Net debt to equity ratio:
1.89%
Debt to assets ratio:
13.75%
Net debt to assets ratio:
1.36%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -74.95% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
58.89
Interest coverage ratio is 10.85% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
38.83%
Annual debt growth is -96% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.591
Statistical significance of correlation:
APPF has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.503
Stock price is 17.41% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.503
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.037
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.073
Kurtosis
13.406
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.323
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
APPF
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
241%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-5.41%
Operating profit margin is -71.75% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
241%
Effective Tax Rate:
-76.49%
Effective tax rate is -389.98% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-4.76%
Return on equity (ROE) is -63.62% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-3.43%
Return on assets (ROA) is -10.58% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.2x
Current Ratio:
3.14
Current ratio is 4.79% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
8.5
Cash conversion cycle is -91.06% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 0.2 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-57.91%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
241.1K
Each employee generates -30% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
16.0K
Each employee generates 49% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 8.6K
Each employee generates -51% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 4.7K
Each employee generates -39% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
144.0K
Each employee generates -39% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 35.96%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is 2252.04% higher than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
APPF
SONOS, INC. (XNAS:SONO)
AVNET, INC. (XNAS:AVT)
ACI WORLDWIDE, INC. (XNAS:ACIW)
Novanta Inc. (XNAS:NOVT)
SYNAPTICS INCORPORATED (XNAS:SYNA)
FEYE
EVERBRIDGE, INC. (XNAS:EVBG)
ALLEGRO MICROSYSTEMS, INC (XNAS:ALGM)
CYBERARK SOFTWARE LTD. (XNAS:CYBR)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�0%
Hold�8%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
385.75M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
153.99M
231.75M
75.92M
62.88M
144.82M
81.94M
31.89M
252.63M
107.00K
435.00K
32.97M
25.62M
- 20878.00K
- 13738.00K
- 7784.00K
5.95M
- 13738.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
8.77M
Differed Income Tax :
- 342.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
7.96M
Change in Working Capital :
- 4762.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 3431.00K
Other Working Capital:
1.05M
Other Non-Cash Items:
427.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 2244.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 1830.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 23309.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
49.54M
78.39M
127.93M
16.15M
-
25.50M
169.57M
71.15M
56.15M
49.84M
45.85M
-
7.48M
230.46M
-
400.03M
4.81M
-
1.28M
3.69M
45.52M
54.02M
54.99M
2.29M
57.27M
-
111.29M
4.00K
137.11M
- 1539.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
406.62M
288.74M
400.03M
124.24M
54.99M
5.4M
23.34M
- 3484.00K
- 5280.00K
-
-
-
-
- 973.00K
- 973.00K
-
- 8497.00K
49.79M
58.28M
- 2244.00K
- 5314.00K
- 7558.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
APPF
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$103.59
$110.94
$118.80
$127.22
$136.23