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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Apogee Enterprises, Inc. (XNAS:APOG) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
APOG
Name:
APOGEE ENTERPRISES, INC. (XNAS:APOG)
Sector:
2.18M
Industry:
Building Products & Equipment
CEO:
Mr. Joseph Puishys
Total Employees:
5,500
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -46.11% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF APOGEE ENTERPRISES, INC.(APOG) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BUILDING PRODUCTS & EQUIPMENT INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
39.67
One Month Price Target:
$39.91
Six Month Price Target :
$41.08
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$42.5
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$39.45
Price Upper limit ($) :
$39.94
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$36.71
This week:
$33.05
This month :
$26.44
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
866.33M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
22.16M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
25.19%
-28.75%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$53.40
$47.10
$25.94
$32.24
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$45.05
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$43.70
$34.28
$35.64
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
APOG
Sharpe Ratio:
1.67%
Comparison:
APOG, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -33.13% lower than the industry
& is -26.88% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
APOG
Daily returns:
0.07%
Weekly returns:
0.35%
Monthly returns:
1.40%
Yearly returns:
21.19%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -20.76% below industry average
Classification:
APOG, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.99
Statistical test of Returns:
APOG has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.67%
Weekly Volatility:
8.20%
Monthly Volatility:
16.40%
Yearly Volatility:
56.80%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.64%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -82.42% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-7.46%
Weekly VaR:
-16.68%
Monthly VaR:
-33.36%
How Much Can the price of
APOG
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-29%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$28.28
This translates to price declining to:
$5.95
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
APOG is a 135.46% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 101.72% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 18.72% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
APOG
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.06
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.668
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.944
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.873
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.789
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.257
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.394
Beta is -23.89% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.393
Beta is -23.80% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.064
Alpha is -25.03% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 405% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
APOG
Equity cost of capital:
0.104
Equity cost of capital is -17.89% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
8.57%
Before-tax cost of debt:
1.66%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.31%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.31%
WACC is -17.87% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$60.69
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.77
Annual revenue growth rate is -94.22% below industry average
EPS:
$0.68
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$1.80
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 31.45%
Equity growth rate per share is -36.69% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$9.44
EBITDA per share
$3.69
Valuation Analysis Today of
APOG
P/E Ratio:
58.06
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
12.37
P/E ratio is 369.29% higher than main peers & is 117.25% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $18.17
APOG is 118.31% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $22.53
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $10.70
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.65
Price to sales ratio is -77.00% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.77
Price to free cash flow: 22.02
Price to free cash flow ratio is -81.73% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-78.65%
Net income growth rate is -192.60% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 32.70%
Dividend yeild: 2.12%
Previous Dividend: $0.22
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.22
Previous Dividend: $0.84
Expected next dividend best case: $0.23
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.21
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.20
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 2.38%
Expected next dividend payment date: 23/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 08/08/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 20/07/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 25/05/2022
Previous dividend record date: 05/10/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 21/04/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-09--$0.22
2021-10-25--$0.20
2021-05-07--$0.20
2022-01-28--$0.22
2021-07-13--$0.20
2021-01-29--$0.20
Dividend growth rate is -87.49% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
42.04%
Net debt to equity ratio:
37.82%
Debt to assets ratio:
21.11%
Net debt to assets ratio:
18.99%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -55.51% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
21.87
Interest coverage ratio is -94.79% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-1.08%
Annual debt growth is -118% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.509
Statistical significance of correlation:
APOG has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.604
Stock price is -15.74% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.604
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.027
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.057
Kurtosis
15.033
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.656
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
APOG
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
87%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
2.92%
Operating profit margin is -108.34% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
87%
Effective Tax Rate:
48.80%
Effective tax rate is 122.83% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
3.09%
Return on equity (ROE) is -86.08% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
1.55%
Return on assets (ROA) is -85.37% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.3x
Current Ratio:
1.76
Current ratio is -40.35% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
32.7
Cash conversion cycle is -0.57% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 11.0 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
10.87%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
244.5K
Each employee generates -59% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
14.9K
Each employee generates -88% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
2.8K
Each employee generates -96% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
0.4K
Each employee generates -96% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
119.7K
Each employee generates -96% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
APOG
CONIFER HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:CNFRL)
GREAT LAKES DREDGE & DOCK CORPORATION (XNAS:GLDD)
ECHO ENERGY PLC (XLON:ECHO)
ANDAW
OFSSZ
FORRESTER RESEARCH, INC. (XNAS:FORR)
TRAVELCENTERS OF AMERICA INC. (XNAS:TANNZ)
KELLY SERVICES, INC. (XNAS:KELYB)
KELLY SERVICES, INC. (XNAS:KELYA)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�13%
Buy�8%
Hold�4%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
5/28/22
Revenue:
1.34B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
1.05B
292.07M
-
-
203.38M
-
-
203.38M
-
3.74M
47.86M
81.68M
39.22M
15.40M
30.08M
14.68M
15.40M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
12.98M
Differed Income Tax :
941.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
1.67M
Change in Working Capital :
- 22674.00K
Accounts Receivables:
4.46M
Other Working Capital:
1.41M
Other Non-Cash Items:
3.15M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
6.88M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
5/29/21
2022
Q1
36.47M
-
36.47M
200.82M
70.87M
23.97M
332.13M
348.57M
131.46M
131.98M
-
-
46.56M
658.57M
-
990.70M
74.31M
15.44M
7.27M
16.87M
81.58M
188.21M
209.18M
63.41M
304.95M
-
493.15M
8.54M
352.13M
- 21455.0K
158.34M
May 29, 2021 at 6:00:00 AM
1.26B
497.55M
990.70M
-
224.62M
188.2M
-
- 4148.00K
- 4148.00K
-
-
- 12625.00K
- 5035.00K
3.40M
- 14257.00K
714.00K
- 10808.00K
36.47M
47.28M
6.88M
- 4705.00K
2.18M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
APOG
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$38.54
$41.28
$44.23
$47.38
$50.76