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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Apellis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (XNAS:APLS) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
APLS
Name:
APELLIS PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. (XNAS:APLS)
Sector:
- 111646.00K
Industry:
Biotechnology
CEO:
DR. Cedric Francois
Total Employees:
476
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is 2.99% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF APELLIS PHARMACEUTICALS, INC.(APLS) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BIOTECHNOLOGY INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
62.69
One Month Price Target:
$63.22
Six Month Price Target :
$65.86
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$69.02
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$62.35
Price Upper limit ($) :
$63.32
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$57.
This week:
$49.96
This month :
$37.24
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
6.37B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
109.87M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
28.29%
-37.19%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$89.07
$76.75
$36.31
$48.63
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$72.74
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$70.11
$52.61
$55.27
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
APLS
Sharpe Ratio:
4.90%
Comparison:
APLS, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 151.98% higher than the industry
& ratio is 114.96% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
APLS
Daily returns:
0.23%
Weekly returns:
1.15%
Monthly returns:
4.62%
Yearly returns:
25.22%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 119.74% above industry average
Classification:
APLS, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.68
Statistical test of Returns:
APLS has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
4.53%
Weekly Volatility:
10.14%
Monthly Volatility:
20.27%
Yearly Volatility:
70.22%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
2.72%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -39.96% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-9.08%
Weekly VaR:
-20.30%
Monthly VaR:
-40.60%
How Much Can the price of
APLS
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-33%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$41.85
This translates to price declining to:
$9.40
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
APLS is a 186.56% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 145.49% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -4.66% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
APLS
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.50
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.862
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.219
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.04
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.014
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.774
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.842
Beta is 78.65% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.152
Beta is 30.54% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.420
Alpha is 195.95% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 2672% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
APLS
Equity cost of capital:
0.134
Equity cost of capital is 21.83% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
9.30%
Before-tax cost of debt:
8.37%
After-tax cost of debt:
6.61%
Overall debt rating:
Non-investment grade (junk/speculative grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
6.61%
WACC is 34.44% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$0.74
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
14.9
-
EPS:
-$8.02
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
21.74%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 117.80% higher than the Biotechnology industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$1.87
EBITDA per share
-$6.20
Valuation Analysis Today of
APLS
P/E Ratio:
-
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
352.44
-
-
APLS is -108.71% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
85.09
Price to sales ratio is 110.08% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
14.9
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
277.18%
Net income growth rate is 292.70% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
44.54%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-91.52%
Debt to assets ratio:
17.97%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-36.92%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -57.39% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-38.68
Interest coverage ratio is -67.31% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-42.01%
Annual debt growth is -131% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.364
Statistical significance of correlation:
APLS has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.34
Stock price is 7.03% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.34
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.009
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.023
Kurtosis
9.938
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.224
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
APLS
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
280%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-667.97%
Operating profit margin is 55.82% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
280%
Effective Tax Rate:
-0.22%
Effective tax rate is -103.91% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-151.79%
Return on equity (ROE) is 164.75% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-61.23%
Return on assets (ROA) is 200.12% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.2x
Current Ratio:
8.85
Current ratio is 9.30% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-7.2
Cash conversion cycle is -101.35% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 4.7 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-2.96%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
170.1K
Each employee generates -89% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
- 1430.7K
Each employee generates -471% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 1474.0K
Each employee generates -1252% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 234.6K
Each employee generates -259% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
88.0K
Each employee generates -259% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 40.33%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -1224.04% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
APLS
Legend Biotech Corporation (XNAS:LEGN)
AGIOS PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. (XNAS:AGIO)
InnovAge Holding Corp. (XNAS:INNV)
ARENA PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. (XNAS:ARNA)
MERIT MEDICAL SYSTEMS, INC. (XNAS:MMSI)
Olink Holding AB (publ) (XNAS:OLK)
SPRINGWORKS THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:SWTX)
HUTCHMED (CHINA) LIMITED (XNAS:HCM)
NUVASIVE, INC. (XNAS:NUVA)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�8%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
80.94M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
6.45M
73.87M
427.80M
187.38M
187.38M
-
-
615.18M
383.00K
17.61M
1.46M
- 681007.00K
- 540684.00K
- 701630.00K
- 700070.00K
1.56M
- 701630.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
360.00K
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
20.77M
Change in Working Capital :
- 615.00K
Accounts Receivables:
3.77M
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
6.86M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 111560.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 86.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 331863.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
633.46M
331.84M
965.30M
6.33M
32.85M
99.50M
1.10B
25.87M
-
-
-
-
16.01M
41.87M
-
1.15B
12.27M
4.56M
-
-
107.94M
124.77M
205.86M
352.99M
558.85M
-
683.62M
11.00K
- 1795623.00K
- 2059.0K
2.26B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
621.63M
462.24M
1.15B
-
210.42M
- 423038.0K
60.00M
-
- 271949.00K
-
380.12M
-
-
- 3416.00K
376.70M
64.00K
- 6741.00K
635.01M
641.76M
- 111560.00K
- 86.00K
- 111646.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
APLS
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$69.24
$76.23
$83.93
$92.41
$101.75