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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Apa Corporation (XNAS:APA) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
APA
Name:
APA CORPORATION (XNAS:APA)
Sector:
891.00M
Industry:
Oil & Gas E&P
CEO:
Mr. John Christmann
Total Employees:
2,253
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is -36.30% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF APA CORPORATION(APA) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND OIL & GAS E&P INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
38.8
One Month Price Target:
$39.63
Six Month Price Target :
$43.76
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$48.72
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$38.53
Price Upper limit ($) :
$39.26
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$34.5
This week:
$29.18
This month :
$19.57
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
12.35B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
326.53M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
29.47%
-53.86%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$58.74
$49.45
$18.86
$28.15
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$46.43
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$44.45
$31.15
$33.15
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
APA
Sharpe Ratio:
4.42%
Comparison:
APA, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -3.91% lower than the industry
& ratio is 93.75% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
APA
Daily returns:
0.25%
Weekly returns:
1.26%
Monthly returns:
5.05%
Yearly returns:
61.42%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -1.28% below industry average
Classification:
APA, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.41
Statistical test of Returns:
APA has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
5.52%
Weekly Volatility:
12.34%
Monthly Volatility:
24.69%
Yearly Volatility:
85.52%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
3.15%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -43.02% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-11.08%
Weekly VaR:
-24.79%
Monthly VaR:
-49.57%
How Much Can the price of
APA
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-41%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$22.92
This translates to price declining to:
$5.82
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
APA is a 249.87% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 199.73% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 3.41% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
APA
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--3.81
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.666
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
2.356
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
-0.015
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.179
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.223
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.31
Beta is 190.36% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
2.012
Beta is 89.10% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.314
Alpha is -29.38% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 2000% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
APA
Equity cost of capital:
0.292
Equity cost of capital is 72.52% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
-0.12%
Before-tax cost of debt:
5.00%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.95%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.95%
WACC is 21.81% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$26.90
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
14.87
Annual revenue growth rate is -86.28% below industry average
EPS:
$7.01
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
30.90%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -4.14% lower than the Oil & Gas E&P industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$7.82
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -74.07%
Equity growth rate per share is -159.36% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$17.65
EBITDA per share
$8.50
Valuation Analysis Today of
APA
P/E Ratio:
4.37
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
11.5
P/E ratio is -62.04% lower than main peers & is -89.63% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $295.21
APA is -86.86% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $15.64
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $2.98
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.44
Price to sales ratio is -70.70% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
14.87
Price to free cash flow: 4.96
Price to free cash flow ratio is -64.44% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
2767.53%
Net income growth rate is 289.33% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
Dividend yeild: 0.87%
Previous Dividend: $0.13
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.13
Previous Dividend: $0.34
Expected next dividend best case: $0.20
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.05
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.09
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 16.04%
Expected next dividend payment date: 22/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 21/07/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 08/10/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 23/05/2022
Previous dividend record date: 22/04/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 05/12/2022
Dividend History:
2022-04-21--$0.13
2021-10-21--$0.06
2021-04-21--$0.03
2022-01-20--$0.13
2021-07-21--$0.03
2021-01-21--$0.03
Dividend growth rate is -61.24% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
-32022.22%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-32027.78%
Debt to assets ratio:
46.20%
Net debt to assets ratio:
46.21%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -13.26% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
9.25
Interest coverage ratio is 16.67% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-14.39%
Annual debt growth is -101% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.488
Statistical significance of correlation:
APA has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.394
Stock price is 23.75% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.394
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.041
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.131
Kurtosis
17.889
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-1.123
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
APA
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
225%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
49.31%
Operating profit margin is -3684.33% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
225%
Effective Tax Rate:
22.42%
Effective tax rate is 13.25% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-3655.56%
Return on equity (ROE) is -43041.45% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
5.27%
Return on assets (ROA) is 129.40% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.9x
Current Ratio:
1.23
Current ratio is -38.59% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
63.7
Cash conversion cycle is -9.96% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 0.6 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
3.9M
Each employee generates -51% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
1.2M
Each employee generates -49% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
292.1K
Each employee generates -30% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
395.5K
Each employee generates -529% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
4.4M
Each employee generates -529% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
APA
RELIANCE STEEL & ALUMINUM CO. (XNYS:RS)
KIRKLAND LAKE GOLD LTD. (XNYS:KL)
ALCOA CORPORATION (XNYS:AA)
West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd. (XNYS:WFG)
CEMEX PUBLICLY TRADED STOCK CORPORATION WITH VARIABLE CAPITAL (XNYS:CX)
RPM INTERNATIONAL INC. (XNYS:RPM)
Ternium SA (XNYS:TX)
AGNICO EAGLE MINES LIMITED (XNYS:AEM)
SIBANYE STILLWATER LIMITED (XNYS:SBSW)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�21%
Hold�58%
Sell�25%
Strong sell�8%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
8.78B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
3.63B
5.15B
-
449.00M
449.00M
-
372.00M
821.00M
6.00M
300.00M
1.02B
2.78B
4.33B
658.00M
3.57B
800.00M
658.00M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
-
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
-
Change in Working Capital :
891.00M
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
-
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
891.00M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
234.00M
-
234.00M
1.63B
529.00M
200.00M
2.59B
8.08B
-
-
576.00M
-
1.23B
9.88B
-
12.48B
735.00M
235.00M
103.00M
-
1.14B
2.11B
5.76B
3.64B
9.51B
-
11.62B
262.00M
- 7605000.00K
21.0M
7.30B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
4.45B
- 18000.00K
11.61B
-
6.00B
5.8B
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
302.00M
891.00M
-
891.00M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
APA
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$48.96
$83.93
$105.39
$132.34
$166.19