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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Antares Pharma, Inc. (XNAS:ATRS) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
ATRS
Name:
ANTARES PHARMA, INC. (XNAS:ATRS)
Sector:
- 4962.00K
Industry:
Medical Instruments & Supplies
CEO:
Mr. Robert Apple
Total Employees:
201
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Technological advancement compared to industry is 30497.66% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF ANTARES PHARMA, INC.(ATRS) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND MEDICAL INSTRUMENTS & SUPPLIES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
5.58
One Month Price Target:
$5.62
Six Month Price Target :
$5.79
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$6.
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$5.55
Price Upper limit ($) :
$5.62
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$5.15
This week:
$4.62
This month :
$3.66
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
955.06M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
170.85M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
49.2%
-24.73%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$7.57
$6.65
$3.59
$4.51
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$6.36
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$6.16
$4.80
$5.00
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
ATRS
Sharpe Ratio:
2.25%
Comparison:
ATRS, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 40.75% higher than the industry
& is -1.12% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
ATRS
Daily returns:
0.09%
Weekly returns:
0.47%
Monthly returns:
1.89%
Yearly returns:
14.68%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 54.11% above industry average
Classification:
ATRS, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.92
Statistical test of Returns:
ATRS has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.79%
Weekly Volatility:
8.48%
Monthly Volatility:
16.95%
Yearly Volatility:
58.72%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
-
-
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-7.69%
Weekly VaR:
-17.20%
Monthly VaR:
-34.39%
How Much Can the price of
ATRS
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-29%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$3.94
This translates to price declining to:
$0.84
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
ATRS is a 142.75% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 107.96% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 30.57% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
ATRS
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.12
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
-
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
-
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.02
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.906
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.92
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.928
Beta is 21.00% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.989
Beta is 13.50% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
51.93%
Sustainable growth rate is 253.38% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.118
Alpha is 147.80% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 750% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
ATRS
Equity cost of capital:
0.108
Equity cost of capital is 9.22% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
9.84%
Before-tax cost of debt:
8.08%
After-tax cost of debt:
6.38%
Overall debt rating:
Non-investment grade (junk/speculative grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
6.38%
WACC is 19.19% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$1.07
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
5.42
Annual revenue growth rate is 260.61% above the industry average
EPS:
-
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$0.13
EBITDA per share
$0.36
Valuation Analysis Today of
ATRS
P/E Ratio:
21.02
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
26.29
P/E ratio is -20.05% lower than main peers & is -57.87% lower than the industry
-
-
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
5.2
Price to sales ratio is -29.93% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
5.42
-
Price to free cash flow ratio is -61.40% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-796.85%
Net income growth rate is 654.06% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
13.06%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-20.61%
Debt to assets ratio:
8.98%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-14.17%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -74.99% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
29.5
Interest coverage ratio is -58.41% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-43.11%
Annual debt growth is -139% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 1.61%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.449
Statistical significance of correlation:
ATRS has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.505
Stock price is -11.08% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.505
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.042
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.096
Kurtosis
49.822
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
3.087
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
ATRS
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
245%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
31.46%
Operating profit margin is 135.05% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
245%
Effective Tax Rate:
22.45%
Effective tax rate is -31.70% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
24.16%
Return on equity (ROE) is -152.98% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
16.61%
Return on assets (ROA) is 131.89% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.1x
Current Ratio:
3.08
Current ratio is -15.68% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
88.7
Cash conversion cycle is 68.28% above industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 9.8 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
4.57%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
912.7K
Each employee generates 158% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
302.2K
Each employee generates 171% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
211.2K
Each employee generates 172% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 24.7K
Each employee generates 329% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
418.3K
Each employee generates 329% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 43.29%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is 16617.77% higher than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
ATRS
COMPUGEN LTD. (XNAS:CGEN)
CRINETICS PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. (XNAS:CRNX)
ORCHARD THERAPEUTICS PLC (XNAS:ORTX)
IDEAYA BIOSCIENCES, INC. (XNAS:IDYA)
GOSSAMER BIO, INC. (XNAS:GOSS)
KARYOPHARM THERAPEUTICS INC. (XNAS:KPTI)
CARA THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:CARA)
ESPERION THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:ESPR)
ARDELYX, INC. (XNAS:ARDX)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�13%
Buy�8%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
183.46M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
70.60M
112.85M
16.87M
-
76.85M
-
18.97M
112.69M
-
2.06M
3.94M
60.75M
57.72M
42.46M
54.75M
12.29M
42.46M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
931.00K
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
1.94M
Change in Working Capital :
- 6256.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 1434.00K
Other Working Capital:
- 937.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
825.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 4881.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 81.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 249.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
61.72M
498.00K
62.21M
93.28M
11.59M
4.50M
171.59M
30.23M
1.10M
17.69M
-
33.86M
1.20M
84.07M
-
255.66M
19.88M
2.54M
-
3.10M
30.22M
55.73M
22.95M
-
24.16M
-
79.89M
1.71M
- 178658.00K
- 686.0K
353.41M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
183.29M
175.77M
255.66M
-
25.49M
- 36226.0K
996.00K
-
666.00K
- 375.00K
-
-
-
392.00K
17.00K
-
- 4198.00K
61.72M
65.91M
- 4881.00K
- 81.00K
- 4962.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
ATRS
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$4.50
$4.84
$5.21
$5.60
$6.02