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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Ansys, Inc. (XNAS:ANSS) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
ANSS
Name:
ANSYS, INC. (XNAS:ANSS)
Sector:
205.87M
Industry:
Software�Application
CEO:
Dr. Ajei Gopal
Total Employees:
5,100
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -101.17% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF ANSYS, INC.(ANSS) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND SOFTWARE�APPLICATION INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
244.63
One Month Price Target:
$246.43
Six Month Price Target :
$255.43
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$266.24
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$243.65
Price Upper limit ($) :
$245.74
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$232.05
This week:
$216.49
This month :
$188.36
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
21.01B
Market Cap Classification:
Large Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
87.07M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
15.14%
-12.35%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$303.03
$276.33
$186.23
$212.93
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$267.64
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$261.94
$221.54
$227.32
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
ANSS
Sharpe Ratio:
0.74%
Comparison:
ANSS, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -23.13% lower than the industry
& is -67.49% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
ANSS
Daily returns:
0.03%
Weekly returns:
0.14%
Monthly returns:
0.55%
Yearly returns:
9.94%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -33.57% below industry average
Classification:
ANSS, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.85
Statistical test of Returns:
ANSS has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.52%
Weekly Volatility:
5.63%
Monthly Volatility:
11.26%
Yearly Volatility:
39.01%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.10%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -95.98% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.14%
Weekly VaR:
-11.50%
Monthly VaR:
-23.00%
How Much Can the price of
ANSS
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-20%
Worst case (decline):
-79.68%
This translates to price declining to:
$195.63
This translates to price declining to:
$49.70
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
ANSS is a 62.35% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 39.08% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -29.96% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
ANSS
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.31
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.016
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.437
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.13
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.183
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.762
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.277
Beta is 2.94% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.335
Beta is -1.57% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
11.12%
Sustainable growth rate is -64.24% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.056
Alpha is 135.21% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -353% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
ANSS
Equity cost of capital:
0.122
Equity cost of capital is -1.17% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
10.45%
Before-tax cost of debt:
1.39%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.10%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.10%
WACC is 16.78% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$22.61
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
4.88
Annual revenue growth rate is -63.43% below industry average
EPS:
$5.14
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-1.26%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -104.60% lower than the Software�Application industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$6.48
-
-
Debt per share
$9.86
EBITDA per share
$7.66
Valuation Analysis Today of
ANSS
P/E Ratio:
46.94
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
137.65
P/E ratio is -65.90% lower than main peers & is -73.57% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $912.85
ANSS is -73.20% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
10.82
Price to sales ratio is -5.67% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
4.88
Price to free cash flow: 37.78
Price to free cash flow ratio is -46.23% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
6.05%
Net income growth rate is -97.52% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
19.68%
Net debt to equity ratio:
4.82%
Debt to assets ratio:
14.19%
Net debt to assets ratio:
3.48%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -74.14% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
55.29
Interest coverage ratio is 4.09% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-6.65%
Annual debt growth is -101% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.79
Statistical significance of correlation:
ANSS has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.503
Stock price is 57.01% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.503
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.017
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.025
Kurtosis
4.939
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.196
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
ANSS
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
346%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
27.66%
Operating profit margin is -244.33% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
346%
Effective Tax Rate:
16.96%
Effective tax rate is -35.72% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
10.39%
Return on equity (ROE) is -179.41% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
7.49%
Return on assets (ROA) is -294.94% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.2x
Current Ratio:
2.28
Current ratio is -23.73% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
108.3
Cash conversion cycle is 14.25% above industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 4.6 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
7.87%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
386.0K
Each employee generates 12% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
130.7K
Each employee generates 1116% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
88.9K
Each employee generates -609% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
40.4K
Each employee generates -620% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
902.6K
Each employee generates -620% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 13.93%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is 811.05% higher than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
ANSS
SKYWORKS SOLUTIONS, INC. (XNAS:SWKS)
Garmin Ltd (XNYS:GRMN)
XILINX, INC. (XNAS:XLNX)
THE TRADE DESK, INC. (XNAS:TTD)
Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario SpA (XMIL:MB)
ZEBRA TECHNOLOGIES CORPORATION (XNAS:ZBRA)
MXIM
VERISIGN, INC. (XNAS:VRSN)
CDW CORPORATION (XNAS:CDW)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�0%
Hold�54%
Sell�8%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
1.97B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
260.64M
1.71B
409.67M
-
738.92M
-
14.93M
1.16B
2.09M
12.06M
108.87M
666.68M
544.41M
453.22M
545.76M
92.54M
453.22M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
29.08M
Differed Income Tax :
- 861.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
35.65M
Change in Working Capital :
67.28M
Accounts Receivables:
180.26M
Other Working Capital:
455.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
8.80M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
210.94M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
- 4915.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
657.42M
344.00K
657.77M
722.14M
-
69.97M
1.45B
214.95M
3.40B
739.06M
-
22.01M
227.38M
4.60B
-
6.05B
17.10M
9.13M
32.93M
386.02M
222.37M
634.62M
858.81M
96.36M
1.05B
-
1.69B
953.00K
4.33B
- 78204.0K
110.99M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
1.42B
4.36B
6.05B
-
867.94M
210.5M
-
- 5049.00K
- 9964.00K
-
-
- 155571.00K
-
- 49074.00K
- 204645.00K
- 6573.00K
- 10246.00K
657.42M
667.67M
210.94M
- 5062.00K
205.87M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
ANSS
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$267.57
$436.00
$474.51
$516.43
$562.05