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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Ani Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (XNAS:ANIP) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
ANIP
Name:
ANI PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. (XNAS:ANIP)
Sector:
- 21120.00K
Industry:
Drug Manufacturers�Specialty & Generic
CEO:
Mr. Arthur Przybyl
Total Employees:
601
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -13862.45% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF ANI PHARMACEUTICALS, INC.(ANIP) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND DRUG MANUFACTURERS�SPECIALTY & GENERIC INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
36.57
One Month Price Target:
$36.77
Six Month Price Target :
$37.79
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$39.02
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$36.31
Price Upper limit ($) :
$36.84
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$33.4
This week:
$29.47
This month :
$22.37
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
609.25M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
17.44M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
49.52%
-18.68%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$51.31
$44.60
$21.83
$28.54
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$42.42
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$40.98
$30.71
$32.16
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
ANIP
Sharpe Ratio:
0.05%
Comparison:
ANIP, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -94.45% lower than the industry
& is -97.78% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
ANIP
Daily returns:
0.01%
Weekly returns:
0.05%
Monthly returns:
0.22%
Yearly returns:
14.20%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -81.43% below industry average
Classification:
ANIP, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.56
Statistical test of Returns:
ANIP has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
4.23%
Weekly Volatility:
9.46%
Monthly Volatility:
18.92%
Yearly Volatility:
65.56%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
2.32%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -45.28% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-8.68%
Weekly VaR:
-19.41%
Monthly VaR:
-38.82%
How Much Can the price of
ANIP
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-34%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$24.06
This translates to price declining to:
$5.49
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
ANIP is a 173.97% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 134.71% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 12.54% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
ANIP
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.00
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.925
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.309
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.522
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.881
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.057
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.708
Beta is 40.60% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.054
Beta is -5.56% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.073
Alpha is -291.31% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -467% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
ANIP
Equity cost of capital:
0.100
Equity cost of capital is -3.87% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
5.23%
Before-tax cost of debt:
-2.70%
After-tax cost of debt:
-2.14%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
-2.14%
WACC is -30.50% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$7.19
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.84
Annual revenue growth rate is -97.67% below industry average
EPS:
-$4.52
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$16.42
EBITDA per share
-$3.01
Valuation Analysis Today of
ANIP
P/E Ratio:
70.87
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
21.54
P/E ratio is 229.04% higher than main peers & is 77.35% higher than the industry
-
ANIP is -120.25% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
5.08
Price to sales ratio is -28.18% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.84
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-537.88%
Net income growth rate is -1.82% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: -0.45%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
82.73%
Net debt to equity ratio:
60.75%
Debt to assets ratio:
38.44%
Net debt to assets ratio:
28.23%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -25.42% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
6.77
Interest coverage ratio is -2.56% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-99.85%
Annual debt growth is -1616% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.26%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.418
Statistical significance of correlation:
ANIP has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.408
Stock price is 2.38% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.408
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.039
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.096
Kurtosis
36.033
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
2.99
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
ANIP
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
-31%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-49.47%
Operating profit margin is 47.10% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
-31%
Effective Tax Rate:
-9.38%
Effective tax rate is -172.07% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-25.93%
Return on equity (ROE) is 160.64% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-12.05%
Return on assets (ROA) is 222.86% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.6x
Current Ratio:
3.79
Current ratio is 15.02% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
198.1
Cash conversion cycle is 30.94% above industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 3.8 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-3.61%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
208.7K
Each employee generates -75% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
- 87.5K
Each employee generates -192% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 149.3K
Each employee generates -245% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 35.1K
Each employee generates -39% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
737.8K
Each employee generates -39% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- -28.95%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -541.01% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
ANIP
PRECISION BIOSCIENCES, INC. (XNAS:DTIL)
ALTIMMUNE, INC. (XNAS:ALT)
NEOLEUKIN THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:NLTX)
VERASTEM, INC. (XNAS:VSTM)
VISTAGEN THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:VTGN)
BIOMEA FUSION, INC. (XNAS:BMEA)
Corner Growth Acquisition Corp (XNAS:COOL)
AKEBIA THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:AKBA)
89BIO, INC. (XNAS:ETNB)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�0%
Hold�4%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
125.41M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
114.90M
10.51M
13.68M
-
95.52M
-
163.89M
273.09M
-
- 7763.00K
37.23M
- 52567.00K
- 62033.00K
- 89729.00K
- 82031.00K
7.70M
- 89729.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
14.56M
Differed Income Tax :
- 7464.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
3.24M
Change in Working Capital :
- 10877.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 3099.00K
Other Working Capital:
- 248.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
1.74M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 18942.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 1949.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
76.91M
-
76.91M
131.63M
83.16M
9.71M
301.40M
52.71M
28.19M
281.57M
-
73.54M
7.43M
443.45M
-
744.85M
22.06M
850.00K
-
116.00K
56.51M
79.53M
286.31M
32.91M
319.22M
-
398.75M
1.00K
- 68300.00K
2.7M
386.83M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
387.98M
346.09M
744.85M
-
287.16M
210.2M
-
- 229.00K
- 2178.00K
- 750.00K
-
- 1118.00K
- 405.00K
3.00K
- 2270.00K
-
- 23390.00K
81.91M
105.30M
- 18942.00K
- 2178.00K
- 21120.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
ANIP
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$39.14
$41.76
$44.55
$47.53
$50.71