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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Amphenol Corporation (XNYS:APH) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
APH
Name:
AMPHENOL CORPORATION (XNYS:APH)
Sector:
272.70M
Industry:
Electronic Components
CEO:
Mr. Richard Norwitt
Total Employees:
90,000
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A
Technological advancement compared to industry is 54.13% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF AMPHENOL CORPORATION(APH) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND ELECTRONIC COMPONENTS INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
72.58
One Month Price Target:
$73.09
Six Month Price Target :
$75.65
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$78.71
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$72.38
Price Upper limit ($) :
$72.87
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$69.67
This week:
$66.08
This month :
$59.58
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
43.32B
Market Cap Classification:
Large Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
594.83M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
10.11%
-14.15%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$86.07
$79.83
$59.09
$65.33
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$77.80
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$76.47
$67.35
$68.69
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
APH
Sharpe Ratio:
2.87%
Comparison:
APH, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 41.27% higher than the industry
& ratio is 25.73% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
APH
Daily returns:
0.07%
Weekly returns:
0.33%
Monthly returns:
1.31%
Yearly returns:
15.78%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -0.09% below industry average
Classification:
APH, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.96
Statistical test of Returns:
APH has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
1.98%
Weekly Volatility:
4.43%
Monthly Volatility:
8.87%
Yearly Volatility:
30.72%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.45%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -77.19% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-4.01%
Weekly VaR:
-8.96%
Monthly VaR:
-17.92%
How Much Can the price of
APH
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-15%
Worst case (decline):
-62.07%
This translates to price declining to:
$61.63
This translates to price declining to:
$27.53
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
APH is a 26.46% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 8.34% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -25.40% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
APH
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.26
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.797
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.127
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.747
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.868
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.732
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.156
Beta is 8.78% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.174
Beta is 7.11% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
22.65%
Sustainable growth rate is 48.72% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.040
Alpha is -12.77% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 255% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
APH
Equity cost of capital:
0.118
Equity cost of capital is 5.11% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
6.99%
Before-tax cost of debt:
1.18%
After-tax cost of debt:
0.93%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
0.93%
WACC is -11.65% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$19.25
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
6.64
Annual revenue growth rate is 44.14% above the industry average
EPS:
$2.70
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
8.97%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -54.72% lower than the Electronic Components industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$2.03
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 37.85%
Equity growth rate per share is -862.64% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$8.25
EBITDA per share
$4.35
Valuation Analysis Today of
APH
P/E Ratio:
25.6
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
17.46
P/E ratio is 46.65% higher than main peers & is 6.76% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $64.75
APH is 12.09% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $16.35
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $6.58
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
3.77
Price to sales ratio is 43.28% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
6.64
Price to free cash flow: 35.76
Price to free cash flow ratio is -32.58% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
101.14%
Net income growth rate is -46.28% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 6.33%
Dividend yeild: 1.03%
Previous Dividend: $0.20
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.20
Previous Dividend: $0.75
Expected next dividend best case: $0.24
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.16
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.21
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.39%
Expected next dividend payment date: 10/11/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 19/09/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 13/07/2022
Previous dividend record date: 21/06/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-17--$0.20
2021-12-20--$0.20
2021-06-21--$0.15
2022-03-21--$0.20
2021-09-20--$0.15
2021-03-22--$0.29
Dividend growth rate is -103.74% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
76.39%
Net debt to equity ratio:
57.34%
Debt to assets ratio:
33.00%
Net debt to assets ratio:
24.78%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -38.48% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
44.45
Interest coverage ratio is 220.79% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
24.01%
Annual debt growth is -3955% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.05%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.857
Statistical significance of correlation:
APH has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.614
Stock price is 39.53% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.614
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.022
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.026
Kurtosis
6.93
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.57
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
APH
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
126%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
19.48%
Operating profit margin is 124.95% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
126%
Effective Tax Rate:
10.71%
Effective tax rate is -28.08% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
29.44%
Return on equity (ROE) is 70.49% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
12.72%
Return on assets (ROA) is 81.79% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.5x
Current Ratio:
2.55
Current ratio is -0.50% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
41.1
Cash conversion cycle is -42.73% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 1.5 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.04%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
127.2K
Each employee generates -29% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
28.7K
Each employee generates 2% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
21.0K
Each employee generates 28% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
3.0K
Each employee generates -209% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
97.4K
Each employee generates -209% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
APH
VMWARE, INC. (XNYS:VMW)
TE Connectivity Ltd (XNYS:TEL)
PALO ALTO NETWORKS, INC. (XNAS:PANW)
SUNSTONE METALS LTD (XASX:STM)
DELL TECHNOLOGIES INC. (XNYS:DELL)
MOTOROLA SOLUTIONS, INC. (XNYS:MSI)
HP INC. (XNYS:HPQ)
ARISTA NETWORKS, INC. (XNYS:ANET)
Unity Software Inc (XNYS:U)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�17%
Buy�17%
Hold�25%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
11.45B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
7.85B
3.60B
-
-
1.30B
-
- 300.00K
1.30B
-
58.20M
409.90M
2.59B
2.23B
1.89B
2.12B
226.80M
1.89B
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
91.10M
Differed Income Tax :
13.40M
Stock Based Compensation :
19.70M
Change in Working Capital :
- 202600.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
- 202600.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
-
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
350.80M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 100300.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
1.25B
52.10M
1.30B
2.42B
1.99B
397.30M
6.11B
1.18B
6.35B
738.40M
-
-
502.40M
8.76B
-
14.87B
1.28B
23.70M
116.60M
-
1.10B
2.40B
4.91B
642.40M
5.97B
-
8.37B
600.00K
4.39B
- 303500.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
9.15B
6.43B
14.80B
-
4.93B
3.7B
35.80M
- 79600.00K
- 144100.00K
- 2500.00K
-
- 204000.00K
- 119800.00K
175.10M
- 151200.00K
- 5100.00K
50.40M
1.25B
1.20B
350.80M
- 78100.00K
272.70M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
APH
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$80.87
$87.70
$95.11
$103.15
$111.86