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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Amphastar Pharmaceuticals Inc (XNAS:AMPH) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
AMPH
Name:
AMPHASTAR PHARMACEUTICALS INC (XNAS:AMPH)
Sector:
44.63M
Industry:
Drug Manufacturers�Specialty & Generic
CEO:
Dr. Jack Zhang
Total Employees:
1,761
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -4369.95% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF AMPHASTAR PHARMACEUTICALS INC(AMPH) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND DRUG MANUFACTURERS�SPECIALTY & GENERIC INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
28.91
One Month Price Target:
$29.03
Six Month Price Target :
$29.62
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$30.33
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$28.81
Price Upper limit ($) :
$29.07
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$27.36
This week:
$25.44
This month :
$21.97
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
1.39B
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
49.02M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
12.57%
-21.15%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$36.11
$32.77
$21.71
$25.05
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$31.69
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$30.98
$26.12
$26.84
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
AMPH
Sharpe Ratio:
3.21%
Comparison:
AMPH, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 252.30% higher than the industry
& ratio is 40.86% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
AMPH
Daily returns:
0.09%
Weekly returns:
0.47%
Monthly returns:
1.88%
Yearly returns:
14.20%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 59.27% above industry average
Classification:
AMPH, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.41
Statistical test of Returns:
AMPH has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.66%
Weekly Volatility:
5.95%
Monthly Volatility:
11.89%
Yearly Volatility:
41.20%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.51%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -43.26% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.37%
Weekly VaR:
-12.00%
Monthly VaR:
-24.01%
How Much Can the price of
AMPH
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-20%
Worst case (decline):
-83.16%
This translates to price declining to:
$23.09
This translates to price declining to:
$4.87
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
AMPH is a 69.44% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 45.16% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -29.26% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
AMPH
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.73
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.969
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.37
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.628
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.41
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.644
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.335
Beta is -45.31% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.054
Beta is -30.70% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
8.69%
Sustainable growth rate is -73.04% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.145
Alpha is 277.51% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 921% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
AMPH
Equity cost of capital:
0.082
Equity cost of capital is -21.38% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
7.01%
Before-tax cost of debt:
0.92%
After-tax cost of debt:
0.73%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
0.73%
WACC is -7.43% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$9.29
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.96
Annual revenue growth rate is -76.64% below industry average
EPS:
$1.61
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
6.32%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -73.06% lower than the Drug Manufacturers�Specialty & Generic industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$1.36
-
-
Debt per share
$2.04
EBITDA per share
$2.58
Valuation Analysis Today of
AMPH
P/E Ratio:
16.26
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
872.9
P/E ratio is -98.14% lower than main peers & is -59.31% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $64.34
AMPH is -55.07% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
3.11
Price to sales ratio is -56.02% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.96
Price to free cash flow: 21.30
Price to free cash flow ratio is 15.27% higher than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-1188.11%
Net income growth rate is 116.86% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
20.82%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-14.05%
Debt to assets ratio:
13.94%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-9.40%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -72.95% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
130.4
Interest coverage ratio is 1776.38% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
110.14%
Annual debt growth is 1572% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.54%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.322
Statistical significance of correlation:
AMPH has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.408
Stock price is -21.23% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.408
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.023
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.035
Kurtosis
10.097
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.748
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
AMPH
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
185%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
17.84%
Operating profit margin is -153.05% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
185%
Effective Tax Rate:
21.99%
Effective tax rate is 68.88% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
16.96%
Return on equity (ROE) is -270.50% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
11.35%
Return on assets (ROA) is -404.32% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.2x
Current Ratio:
3.19
Current ratio is -3.29% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
74.3
Cash conversion cycle is -50.89% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 6.3 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
6.17%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
258.4K
Each employee generates -69% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
71.7K
Each employee generates -24% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
46.2K
Each employee generates -55% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
25.3K
Each employee generates -144% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
199.8K
Each employee generates -144% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 6.69%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is 1.95% higher than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
AMPH
SUTRO BIOPHARMA, INC. (XNAS:STRO)
Connect Biopharma Holdings Ltd (XNAS:CNTB)
IKENA ONCOLOGY, INC. (XNAS:IKNA)
OPTIMIZERX CORPORATION (XNAS:OPRX)
VIEWRAY, INC. (XNAS:VRAY)
MESOBLAST LIMITED (XNAS:MESO)
ORIC PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. (XNAS:ORIC)
Trean Insurance Group Inc (XNAS:TIG)
VAXCYTE, INC. (XNAS:PCVX)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�8%
Hold�8%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
455.12M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
244.50M
210.62M
62.39M
48.57M
67.03M
18.47M
-
129.42M
621.00K
968.00K
20.17M
126.23M
81.20M
81.33M
108.06M
23.76M
81.33M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
6.80M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
5.02M
Change in Working Capital :
17.00M
Accounts Receivables:
5.60M
Other Working Capital:
3.93M
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 2309.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
50.77M
Investments in PP&E:
- 6139.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 5317.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
172.63M
14.38M
187.01M
73.39M
95.15M
8.87M
364.42M
271.37M
3.26M
35.18M
3.32M
22.40M
16.30M
351.82M
-
716.24M
23.84M
5.44M
13.12M
-
85.08M
114.36M
99.84M
15.49M
122.35M
-
236.71M
6.00K
204.59M
- 7245.0K
282.17M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
373.92M
479.53M
716.24M
17.70M
105.28M
- 67352.0K
2.54M
- 189.00K
- 9110.00K
- 538.00K
-
- 1229.00K
-
6.42M
4.65M
- 29.00K
46.27M
172.86M
126.59M
50.77M
- 6139.00K
44.63M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
AMPH
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$30.48
$419.07
$439.64
$461.22
$483.85