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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Amkor Technology, Inc. (XNAS:AMKR) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
AMKR
Name:
AMKOR TECHNOLOGY, INC. (XNAS:AMKR)
Sector:
8.02M
Industry:
Semiconductors
CEO:
Mr. Stephen Kelley
Total Employees:
30,400
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -166.25% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF AMKOR TECHNOLOGY, INC.(AMKR) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND SEMICONDUCTORS INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
19.18
One Month Price Target:
$19.34
Six Month Price Target :
$20.16
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$21.14
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$19.08
Price Upper limit ($) :
$19.33
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$17.69
This week:
$15.84
This month :
$12.49
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
4.62B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
244.84M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
22.01%
-27.57%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$26.11
$22.90
$12.25
$15.46
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$21.86
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$21.17
$16.49
$17.19
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
AMKR
Sharpe Ratio:
3.26%
Comparison:
AMKR, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 5.36% higher than the industry
& ratio is 43.13% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
AMKR
Daily returns:
0.13%
Weekly returns:
0.67%
Monthly returns:
2.70%
Yearly returns:
31.95%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 1.27% above industry average
Classification:
AMKR, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.77
Statistical test of Returns:
AMKR has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.86%
Weekly Volatility:
8.63%
Monthly Volatility:
17.26%
Yearly Volatility:
59.81%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.77%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -80.12% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-7.79%
Weekly VaR:
-17.43%
Monthly VaR:
-34.85%
How Much Can the price of
AMKR
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-29%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$13.57
This translates to price declining to:
$2.88
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
AMKR is a 146.00% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 110.75% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 8.78% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
AMKR
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.52
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.046
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.48
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.137
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.415
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.037
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.59
Beta is -4.38% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.41
Beta is 7.80% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
22.90%
Sustainable growth rate is -17.19% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.188
Alpha is -1.82% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 1196% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
AMKR
Equity cost of capital:
0.136
Equity cost of capital is 5.88% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
10.15%
Before-tax cost of debt:
3.69%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.91%
Overall debt rating:
Upper medium A grade (third highest grade),CO8<=0.0429,"Medium BBB grade (Fourth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.91%
WACC is 6.70% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$26.18
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.5
Annual revenue growth rate is 38.95% above the industry average
EPS:
$2.82
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
73.69%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 41.34% higher than the Semiconductors industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$1.27
-
-
Debt per share
$4.79
EBITDA per share
$5.76
Valuation Analysis Today of
AMKR
P/E Ratio:
6.81
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
1157.09
P/E ratio is -99.41% lower than main peers & is -83.58% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $116.96
AMKR is -83.60% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $800.30
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $2.11
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.73
Price to sales ratio is -90.99% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.5
Price to free cash flow: 15.08
Price to free cash flow ratio is -72.90% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
401.36%
Net income growth rate is -800.68% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 1.76%
Dividend yeild: 0.99%
Previous Dividend: $0.05
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.05
Previous Dividend: $0.19
Expected next dividend best case: $0.06
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.04
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.04
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 4.17%
Expected next dividend payment date: 26/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 09/05/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 27/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 06/07/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-06--$0.05
2021-12-06--$0.05
2021-06-04--$0.04
2022-02-28--$0.05
2021-09-03--$0.04
2021-02-22--$0.04
Dividend growth rate is 57.06% higher than the average industry
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
37.91%
Net debt to equity ratio:
18.77%
Debt to assets ratio:
18.85%
Net debt to assets ratio:
9.34%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -51.64% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
26.63
Interest coverage ratio is -18.79% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
1.22%
Annual debt growth is -99% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 3.87%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.657
Statistical significance of correlation:
AMKR has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.627
Stock price is 4.67% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.627
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.001
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.003
Kurtosis
6.865
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.247
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
AMKR
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
80%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
12.93%
Operating profit margin is -45.02% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
80%
Effective Tax Rate:
11.16%
Effective tax rate is -26.06% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
22.41%
Return on equity (ROE) is -21.63% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
11.14%
Return on assets (ROA) is -15.34% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.2x
Current Ratio:
1.81
Current ratio is -55.41% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
22.2
Cash conversion cycle is -59.83% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 0.5 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
210.8K
Each employee generates -66% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
46.4K
Each employee generates -80% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
22.8K
Each employee generates -86% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
0.3K
Each employee generates -99% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
108.1K
Each employee generates -99% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 17.99%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is 27.02% higher than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
AMKR
BUMBLE INC. (XNAS:BMBL)
AMBARELLA INC (XNAS:AMBA)
RAPID7, INC. (XNAS:RPD)
Novanta Inc. (XNAS:NOVT)
FRESHWORKS INC. (XNAS:FRSH)
LUMINAR TECHNOLOGIES, INC. (XNAS:LAZR)
ALLEGRO MICROSYSTEMS, INC (XNAS:ALGM)
MICROSTRATEGY INCORPORATED (XNAS:MSTR)
-
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�8%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�4%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
6.41B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
5.12B
1.29B
160.08M
-
296.28M
-
-
456.36M
1.39M
52.98M
576.38M
1.41B
828.99M
693.85M
784.34M
87.52M
693.85M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
148.19M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
-
Change in Working Capital :
- 164303.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
11.06M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
166.18M
Investments in PP&E:
- 158154.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 155496.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
854.80M
307.02M
1.16B
1.20B
516.44M
60.29M
2.94B
3.12B
23.18M
-
-
-
143.43M
3.29B
-
6.23B
753.28M
262.33M
48.97M
112.81M
494.71M
1.62B
1.17B
302.14M
1.48B
-
3.10B
291.00K
1.32B
10.5M
1.76B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
5.58B
3.10B
6.20B
-
1.44B
581.2M
72.77M
873.00K
- 240009.00K
- 47301.00K
-
-
- 12228.00K
168.77M
109.24M
- 7795.00K
27.61M
859.13M
831.52M
166.18M
- 158154.00K
8.02M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
AMKR
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$21.25
$1,585.40
$1,747.38
$1,925.91
$2,122.68