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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Amicus Therapeutics, Inc. (XNAS:FOLD) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
FOLD
Name:
AMICUS THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:FOLD)
Sector:
- 59186.00K
Industry:
Biotechnology
CEO:
Mr. John Crowley
Total Employees:
496
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is -10.90% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF AMICUS THERAPEUTICS, INC.(FOLD) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BIOTECHNOLOGY INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
11.46
One Month Price Target:
$11.52
Six Month Price Target :
$11.81
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$12.15
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$11.39
Price Upper limit ($) :
$11.55
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$10.5
This week:
$9.32
This month :
$7.17
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
3.14B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
280.50M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
26.56%
-32.89%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$15.91
$13.86
$7.01
$9.06
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$13.19
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$12.75
$9.73
$10.17
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
FOLD
Sharpe Ratio:
2.56%
Comparison:
FOLD, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 31.43% higher than the industry
& ratio is 12.13% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
FOLD
Daily returns:
0.11%
Weekly returns:
0.57%
Monthly returns:
2.29%
Yearly returns:
25.22%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 8.81% above industry average
Classification:
FOLD, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.62
Statistical test of Returns:
FOLD has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
4.13%
Weekly Volatility:
9.23%
Monthly Volatility:
18.46%
Yearly Volatility:
63.95%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.81%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -56.15% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-8.36%
Weekly VaR:
-18.70%
Monthly VaR:
-37.41%
How Much Can the price of
FOLD
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-32%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$7.82
This translates to price declining to:
$1.72
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
FOLD is a 164.00% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 126.17% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -13.17% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
FOLD
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.90
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.782
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.105
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.306
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.184
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.112
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.177
Beta is -23.82% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.152
Beta is -22.16% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.182
Alpha is 27.98% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 1156% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
FOLD
Equity cost of capital:
0.093
Equity cost of capital is -15.84% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
3.18%
Before-tax cost of debt:
7.29%
After-tax cost of debt:
5.76%
Overall debt rating:
Non-investment grade (junk/speculative grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
5.76%
WACC is -18.65% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$1.13
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
13.47
Annual revenue growth rate is -77.45% below industry average
EPS:
-$0.97
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-14.66%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -246.85% lower than the Biotechnology industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$1.57
EBITDA per share
-$0.79
Valuation Analysis Today of
FOLD
P/E Ratio:
-
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
83.21
-
-
FOLD is -113.17% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
10.11
Price to sales ratio is -75.03% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
13.47
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-50.88%
Net income growth rate is -172.08% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
184.58%
Net debt to equity ratio:
89.85%
Debt to assets ratio:
53.26%
Net debt to assets ratio:
25.93%
Debt-to-asset ratio is 26.34% above industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-6.75
Interest coverage ratio is -94.29% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
11.11%
Annual debt growth is -92% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.497
Statistical significance of correlation:
FOLD has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.34
Stock price is 46.02% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.34
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.048
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.115
Kurtosis
11.284
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.113
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
FOLD
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
355%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-71.96%
Operating profit margin is -83.21% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
355%
Effective Tax Rate:
-4.30%
Effective tax rate is -175.38% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-113.18%
Return on equity (ROE) is 97.40% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-32.66%
Return on assets (ROA) is 60.06% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
2.1x
Current Ratio:
4
Current ratio is -50.58% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-94.9
Cash conversion cycle is -117.80% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 8.1 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-11.35%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
640.8K
Each employee generates -60% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
- 444.1K
Each employee generates -215% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 544.5K
Each employee generates -525% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 119.3K
Each employee generates -181% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
621.0K
Each employee generates -181% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- -11.80%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is 228.88% higher than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
FOLD
I-MAB (XNAS:IMAB)
ZENTALIS PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. (XNAS:ZNTL)
EQRx, Inc. (XNAS:EQRX)
Newegg Commerce, Inc. (XNAS:NEGG)
INSMED INCORPORATED (XNAS:INSM)
Tilray Brands, Inc. (XNAS:TLRY)
OPKO HEALTH, INC. (XNAS:OPK)
ABCELLERA BIOLOGICS INC. (XNAS:ABCL)
MERIT MEDICAL SYSTEMS, INC. (XNAS:MMSI)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�13%
Buy�13%
Hold�4%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
317.83M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
35.51M
282.32M
289.45M
-
204.10M
-
6.02M
499.57M
477.00K
32.63M
6.02M
- 220281.00K
- 228718.00K
- 270056.00K
- 258923.00K
11.13M
- 270056.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
1.41M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
30.65M
Change in Working Capital :
- 11855.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 1000.00K
Other Working Capital:
- 1436.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
6.74M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 58315.00K
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 49244.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
233.32M
177.88M
411.20M
52.42M
24.32M
30.96M
518.90M
62.05M
197.80M
23.00M
-
-
25.19M
308.04M
-
826.94M
22.91M
7.26M
-
-
99.53M
129.70M
440.45M
13.24M
458.62M
-
588.32M
2.81M
- 2381182.00K
- 1028.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
535.07M
238.62M
826.94M
-
447.71M
214.4M
108.33M
- 871.00K
58.21M
- 20.00K
-
-
-
- 8134.00K
- 8154.00K
- 3377.00K
- 11633.00K
237.82M
249.46M
- 58315.00K
- 871.00K
- 59186.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
FOLD
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$12.19
$12.92
$13.70
$14.53
$15.40