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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Amerisafe, Inc (XNAS:AMSF) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
AMSF
Name:
AMERISAFE, INC (XNAS:AMSF)
Sector:
6.86M
Industry:
Insurance�Specialty
CEO:
Ms. Gerry Frost
Total Employees:
371
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
-
-
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF AMERISAFE, INC(AMSF) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND INSURANCE�SPECIALTY INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
48.01
One Month Price Target:
$48.08
Six Month Price Target :
$48.41
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$48.8
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$47.82
Price Upper limit ($) :
$48.18
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$45.83
This week:
$43.13
This month :
$38.25
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
915.02M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
19.28M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
16.58%
-13.26%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$58.15
$53.57
$37.87
$42.45
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$52.08
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$51.10
$43.93
$44.92
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
AMSF
Sharpe Ratio:
-1.51%
Comparison:
AMSF, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -807.36% lower than the industry
& is -166.08% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
AMSF
Daily returns:
-0.02%
Weekly returns:
-0.12%
Monthly returns:
-0.49%
Yearly returns:
3.76%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -255.13% below industry average
Classification:
AMSF, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.22
Statistical test of Returns:
AMSF has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.20%
Weekly Volatility:
4.92%
Monthly Volatility:
9.85%
Yearly Volatility:
34.12%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.71%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -67.83% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-4.55%
Weekly VaR:
-10.17%
Monthly VaR:
-20.34%
How Much Can the price of
AMSF
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-18%
Worst case (decline):
-70.45%
This translates to price declining to:
$39.24
This translates to price declining to:
$14.19
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
AMSF is a 43.54% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 22.97% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -19.59% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
AMSF
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.25
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.403
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.57
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.091
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.407
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.674
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.898
Beta is -72.57% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.047
Beta is -76.48% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.107
Alpha is 62.74% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -679% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
AMSF
Equity cost of capital:
0.048
Equity cost of capital is -53.14% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
1.78%
Before-tax cost of debt:
-
After-tax cost of debt:
-
Overall debt rating:
-
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
-
-
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$15.97
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.34
Annual revenue growth rate is -150.42% below industry average
EPS:
$3.29
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-11.07%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -246.25% lower than the Insurance�Specialty industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$1.40
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 17.78%
Equity growth rate per share is 113.66% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$0.00
EBITDA per share
$4.06
Valuation Analysis Today of
AMSF
P/E Ratio:
20.2
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
13.69
P/E ratio is 47.50% higher than main peers & is 187.40% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $23.12
AMSF is 107.65% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
3.01
Price to sales ratio is 8.18% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.34
Price to free cash flow: 34.41
Price to free cash flow ratio is 133.39% higher than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-8.58%
Net income growth rate is -106.57% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 9.38%
Dividend yeild: 10.23%
Previous Dividend: $0.31
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.31
Previous Dividend: $4.91
Expected next dividend best case: $1.48
Expected next dividend worst case: -$0.86
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.92
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 209.53%
Expected next dividend payment date: 22/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 15/09/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 24/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 17/06/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-16--$0.31
2021-12-02--$0.29
2021-09-09--$0.29
2022-03-10--$0.31
2021-11-09--$4.00
2021-06-17--$0.29
Dividend growth rate is -20373.04% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
208.22%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-7.78%
Debt to assets ratio:
67.56%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-2.21%
Debt-to-asset ratio is 95.15% above industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-
-
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
0.00%
-
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 100.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.44
Statistical significance of correlation:
AMSF has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.587
Stock price is -25.02% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.587
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0
Kurtosis
11.374
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.028
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
AMSF
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
0.00%
-
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Effective Tax Rate:
17.44%
Effective tax rate is -20.01% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
16.13%
Return on equity (ROE) is -25.03% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
4.58%
Return on assets (ROA) is -27.52% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
3.1x
Current Ratio:
0
-
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 7.1 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-0.01%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
830.3K
Each employee generates -19% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
211.0K
Each employee generates -62% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
171.9K
Each employee generates -55% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
18.5K
Each employee generates -83% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
0.0K
Each employee generates -83% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
AMSF
CITY HOLDING COMPANY (XNAS:CHCO)
BPFH
StepStone Group Inc (XNAS:STEP)
STONEX GROUP INC. (XNAS:SNEX)
MERCHANTS BANCORP (XNAS:MBIN)
SAFETY INSURANCE GROUP, INC. (XNAS:SAFT)
OAKTREE SPECIALTY LENDING CORPORATION (XNAS:OCSL)
FIRST BANCORP (XNAS:FBNC)
OCEANFIRST FINANCIAL CORP. (XNAS:OCFC)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�13%
Hold�8%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
308.04M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
-
-
25.30M
25.30M
-
-
-
-
-
1.04M
78.29M
-
63.78M
77.25M
13.47M
63.78M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
294.00K
Differed Income Tax :
364.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
- 9.00K
Change in Working Capital :
- 11247.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 5501.00K
Other Working Capital:
4.28M
Other Non-Cash Items:
385.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
7.12M
Investments in PP&E:
- 258.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 72849.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
30.74M
415.79M
446.53M
268.76M
-
-
-
6.42M
-
-
1.03B
-
-
-
1.39B
1.39B
38.44M
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
996.11M
996.11M
206.00K
201.83M
57.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
230.80M
395.27M
1.39B
1.45B
-
- 30741.0K
34.06M
-
- 39045.00K
- 12.00K
-
- 2059.00K
- 5983.00K
-
- 8054.00K
-
- 39981.00K
30.74M
70.72M
7.12M
- 258.00K
6.86M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
-
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
AMSF
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$55.29
$56.20
$57.13
$58.08
$59.04