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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Ameris Bancorp (XNAS:ABCB) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
ABCB
Name:
AMERIS BANCORP (XNAS:ABCB)
Sector:
356.87M
Industry:
Banks�Regional
CEO:
Mr. Dennis Zember
Total Employees:
2,865
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is -9.53% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF AMERIS BANCORP(ABCB) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BANKS�REGIONAL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
46.06
One Month Price Target:
$46.36
Six Month Price Target :
$47.89
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$49.71
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$45.83
Price Upper limit ($) :
$46.34
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$42.99
This week:
$39.2
This month :
$32.35
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
3.13B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
69.36M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
15.5%
-16.4%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$60.29
$53.75
$31.83
$38.37
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$51.63
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$50.23
$40.47
$41.89
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
ABCB
Sharpe Ratio:
1.65%
Comparison:
ABCB, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 34.23% higher than the industry
& is -27.65% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
ABCB
Daily returns:
0.06%
Weekly returns:
0.31%
Monthly returns:
1.26%
Yearly returns:
10.91%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 38.12% above industry average
Classification:
ABCB, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.73
Statistical test of Returns:
ABCB has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.27%
Weekly Volatility:
7.32%
Monthly Volatility:
14.63%
Yearly Volatility:
50.68%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.36%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -88.87% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.66%
Weekly VaR:
-14.88%
Monthly VaR:
-29.77%
How Much Can the price of
ABCB
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-26%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$34.27
This translates to price declining to:
$6.91
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
ABCB is a 110.09% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 79.98% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 14.52% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
ABCB
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.18
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.73
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.032
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.037
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.616
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.967
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.073
Beta is 10.02% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.964
Beta is 22.47% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
11.70%
Sustainable growth rate is 28.17% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.038
Alpha is 230.63% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 244% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
ABCB
Equity cost of capital:
0.112
Equity cost of capital is 15.21% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
9.87%
Before-tax cost of debt:
8.26%
After-tax cost of debt:
6.53%
Overall debt rating:
Non-investment grade (junk/speculative grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
6.53%
WACC is -3.18% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$14.22
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.06
Annual revenue growth rate is 29.93% above the industry average
EPS:
$4.78
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
25.07%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 108.55% higher than the Banks�Regional industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$7.88
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 58.72%
Equity growth rate per share is 51.63% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$7.96
EBITDA per share
$7.64
Valuation Analysis Today of
ABCB
P/E Ratio:
9.57
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
61.8
P/E ratio is -84.52% lower than main peers & is -22.92% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $59.31
ABCB is -22.34% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $31.96
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $5.34
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
3.24
Price to sales ratio is -24.27% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.06
Price to free cash flow: 5.84
Price to free cash flow ratio is 10.80% higher than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
94.00%
Net income growth rate is 70.68% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 3.13%
Dividend yeild: 1.30%
Previous Dividend: $0.15
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.15
Previous Dividend: $0.60
-
-
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.15
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.00%
Expected next dividend payment date: 10/06/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 28/09/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 07/08/2022
Previous dividend record date: 30/06/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-29--$0.15
2021-12-30--$0.15
2021-06-29--$0.15
2022-03-30--$0.15
2021-09-29--$0.15
2021-03-30--$0.15
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
18.37%
Net debt to equity ratio:
9.81%
Debt to assets ratio:
2.34%
Net debt to assets ratio:
1.25%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -98.59% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
11.61
Interest coverage ratio is 1301.28% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
57.64%
Annual debt growth is 18099% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 36.28%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.494
Statistical significance of correlation:
ABCB has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.501
Stock price is -1.28% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.501
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.018
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.034
Kurtosis
4.723
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.021
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
ABCB
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
16.00%
Operating profit margin is -55.33% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Effective Tax Rate:
24.65%
Effective tax rate is 14.38% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
11.10%
Return on equity (ROE) is -6.99% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
1.42%
Return on assets (ROA) is -38.55% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
0
-
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 2.3 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
0.45%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
344.3K
Each employee generates -9% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
185.0K
Each employee generates -18% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
116.5K
Each employee generates -18% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
124.6K
Each employee generates 50% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
728.6K
Each employee generates 50% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
ABCB
WINTRUST FINANCIAL CORPORATION (XNAS:WTFCM)
ENSTAR GROUP LIMITED (XNAS:ESGRO)
SLM CORPORATION (XNAS:SLMBP)
KINSALE CAPITAL GROUP, INC. (XNYS:KNSL)
ENSTAR GROUP LIMITED (XNAS:ESGRP)
EASTERN BANKSHARES, INC. (XNAS:EBC)
GOHEALTH, INC. (XNAS:GOCO)
Brighthouse Financial, Inc. (XNAS:BHF)
FIRST HAWAIIAN, INC. (XNAS:FHB)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�4%
Hold�17%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
986.43M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
-
-
372.74M
381.73M
8.99M
-
-
708.54M
45.64M
41.67M
530.09M
-
333.65M
442.77M
109.12M
333.65M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
12.64M
Differed Income Tax :
6.44M
Stock Based Compensation :
1.50M
Change in Working Capital :
- 18655.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
- 18655.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
276.81M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
360.42M
Investments in PP&E:
- 3550.00K
Net Acquisitions:
- 13237.00K
Purchases of Investments:
- 29825.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
257.32M
579.20M
836.52M
-
-
-
-
224.29M
1.02B
120.76M
720.05M
-
-
2.09B
25.65B
23.56B
-
-
-
-
-
-
552.35M
-
552.35M
21.11B
20.55B
72.21M
1.08B
- 1841.0K
1.86B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
-
3.01B
23.56B
1.30B
552.35M
295.0M
43.25M
- 201665.00K
- 205027.00K
- 314467.00K
-
- 17234.00K
- 10445.00K
- 79447.00K
- 421593.00K
-
- 266197.00K
3.80B
4.06B
360.42M
- 3550.00K
356.87M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
ABCB
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$49.96
$148.65
$160.44
$173.16
$186.90