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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Americold Realty Trust, Inc. (XNYS:COLD) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
COLD
Name:
AMERICOLD REALTY TRUST, INC. (XNYS:COLD)
Sector:
- 77434.00K
Industry:
REIT�Industrial
CEO:
Mr. Fred Boehler
Total Employees:
16,275
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is 26.45% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF AMERICOLD REALTY TRUST, INC.(COLD) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND REIT�INDUSTRIAL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
28.99
One Month Price Target:
$29.05
Six Month Price Target :
$29.32
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$29.65
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$28.88
Price Upper limit ($) :
$29.1
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$27.69
This week:
$26.08
This month :
$23.16
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
7.87B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
269.37M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
18.19%
-19.15%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$35.04
$32.29
$22.94
$25.69
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$31.40
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$30.81
$26.57
$27.17
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
COLD
Sharpe Ratio:
-0.57%
Comparison:
COLD, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -123.43% lower than the industry
& is -124.89% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
COLD
Daily returns:
0.00%
Weekly returns:
-0.02%
Monthly returns:
-0.07%
Yearly returns:
14.06%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -106.07% below industry average
Classification:
COLD, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.75
Statistical test of Returns:
COLD has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.19%
Weekly Volatility:
4.89%
Monthly Volatility:
9.78%
Yearly Volatility:
33.88%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.61%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -72.22% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-4.50%
Weekly VaR:
-10.05%
Monthly VaR:
-20.10%
How Much Can the price of
COLD
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-18%
Worst case (decline):
-69.64%
This translates to price declining to:
$23.82
This translates to price declining to:
$8.80
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
COLD is a 41.89% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 21.56% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -0.62% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
COLD
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.34
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.576
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.815
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.16
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.664
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.698
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.983
Beta is -65.32% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.735
Beta is -53.63% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.063
Alpha is -207.84% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -404% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
COLD
Equity cost of capital:
0.055
Equity cost of capital is -32.99% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
2.57%
Before-tax cost of debt:
1.61%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.27%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.27%
WACC is -33.00% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$10.34
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.97
Annual revenue growth rate is -153.38% below industry average
EPS:
-$0.13
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -100.00%
Equity growth rate per share is -913.56% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$11.07
EBITDA per share
$1.17
Valuation Analysis Today of
COLD
P/E Ratio:
0
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
24.57
P/E ratio is -100.00% lower than main peers & is higher than the industry
-
COLD is -431.25% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $38.79
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $19.72
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
2.8
Price to sales ratio is -79.07% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.97
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-137.64%
Net income growth rate is -835.00% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: -114.13%
Dividend yeild: 3.04%
Previous Dividend: $0.22
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.22
Previous Dividend: $0.88
Expected next dividend best case: $0.23
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.21
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.21
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.98%
Expected next dividend payment date: 13/10/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 28/09/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 15/07/2022
Previous dividend record date: 30/06/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-29--$0.22
2021-12-30--$0.22
2021-06-29--$0.22
2022-03-30--$0.22
2021-09-29--$0.22
2021-03-30--$0.22
Dividend growth rate is -110.66% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
75.29%
Net debt to equity ratio:
86.97%
Debt to assets ratio:
36.34%
Net debt to assets ratio:
41.97%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -78.43% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
5.58
Interest coverage ratio is -11194.18% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-100.00%
Annual debt growth is -1008% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.27%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.584
Statistical significance of correlation:
COLD has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.617
Stock price is -5.29% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.617
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.02
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.025
Kurtosis
17.619
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.045
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
COLD
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
91%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
2.39%
Operating profit margin is -92.56% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
91%
Effective Tax Rate:
-50.18%
Effective tax rate is -9838.22% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-1.33%
Return on equity (ROE) is -115.96% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-0.64%
Return on assets (ROA) is -116.49% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.6x
Current Ratio:
0.44
Current ratio is -84.98% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
51.1
Cash conversion cycle is 180.45% above industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 4.5 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-15.41%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
171.2K
Each employee generates -90% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
19.3K
Each employee generates -99% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 3.2K
Each employee generates -100% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 4.8K
Each employee generates -102% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
475.4K
Each employee generates -102% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
COLD
KILROY REALTY CORPORATION (XNYS:KRC)
KIM-PL
Apartment Income REIT Corp. (XNYS:AIRC)
NATIONAL RETAIL PROPERTIES, INC. (XNYS:NNN)
KIMCO REALTY CORPORATION (XNYS:KIM)
FIRST INDUSTRIAL REALTY TRUST, INC. (XNYS:FR)
EASTGROUP PROPERTIES, INC. (XNYS:EGP)
STAG INDUSTRIAL, INC. (XNYS:STAG)
VORNADO REALTY TRUST (XNYS:VNO)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�8%
Hold�4%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
2.79B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
2.15B
630.72M
-
57.60M
194.63M
-
900.93M
1.10B
282.00K
56.32M
292.97M
314.34M
66.63M
- 52517.00K
- 35004.00K
17.57M
- 52517.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
83.13M
Differed Income Tax :
- 1889.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
8.09M
Change in Working Capital :
- 61655.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 41994.00K
Other Working Capital:
15.91M
Other Non-Cash Items:
5.35M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
15.59M
Investments in PP&E:
- 93020.00K
Net Acquisitions:
- 1322.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
50.97M
-
50.97M
419.35M
-
-
470.31M
308.35M
1.07B
968.10M
43.53M
-
5.35B
7.74B
-
8.21B
-
513.82M
-
28.35M
535.62M
1.08B
2.98B
11.15M
3.16B
-
4.24B
2.69M
- 1234875.00K
15.9M
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
3.25B
3.96B
8.20B
-
3.50B
3.4B
-
98.00K
- 94244.00K
- 8138.00K
-
-
- 59940.00K
114.33M
46.26M
409.00K
- 31993.00K
50.97M
82.96M
15.59M
- 93020.00K
- 77434.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
COLD
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$25.15
$25.72
$26.31
$26.91
$27.53