_edited.png)
RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
American Woodmark Corporation (XNAS:AMWD) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
AMWD
Name:
AMERICAN WOODMARK CORPORATION (XNAS:AMWD)
Sector:
- 5283.00K
Industry:
Furnishings, Fixtures & Appliances
CEO:
Mr. S. Cary Dunston
Total Employees:
10,000
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -76.91% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF AMERICAN WOODMARK CORPORATION(AMWD) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND FURNISHINGS, FIXTURES & APPLIANCES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
51.43
One Month Price Target:
$51.96
Six Month Price Target :
$54.62
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$57.8
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$51.07
Price Upper limit ($) :
$51.77
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$47.19
This week:
$41.95
This month :
$32.48
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
833.58M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
16.62M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
37.75%
-24.03%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$71.11
$62.20
$31.75
$40.66
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$59.29
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$57.39
$43.54
$45.47
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
AMWD
Sharpe Ratio:
-0.87%
Comparison:
AMWD, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -178.52% lower than the industry
& is -138.30% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
AMWD
Daily returns:
-0.03%
Weekly returns:
-0.13%
Monthly returns:
-0.52%
Yearly returns:
14.35%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -143.60% below industry average
Classification:
AMWD, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.69
Statistical test of Returns:
AMWD has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
4.00%
Weekly Volatility:
8.94%
Monthly Volatility:
17.89%
Yearly Volatility:
61.96%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
5.80%
Volatility in last five trading days has been 44.94% above long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-8.24%
Weekly VaR:
-18.42%
Monthly VaR:
-36.85%
How Much Can the price of
AMWD
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-33%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$34.51
This translates to price declining to:
$7.71
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
AMWD is a 160.08% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 122.81% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 1.28% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
AMWD
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.84
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.155
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.634
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.894
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.192
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.348
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.913
Beta is -3.65% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.707
Beta is 7.98% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
3.35%
Sustainable growth rate is -89.98% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.220
Alpha is 4370.95% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -1403% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
AMWD
Equity cost of capital:
0.158
Equity cost of capital is 6.28% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
7.65%
Before-tax cost of debt:
1.64%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.30%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.30%
WACC is 12.81% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$111.73
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.16
Annual revenue growth rate is -7.57% below industry average
EPS:
-$1.79
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$36.00
EBITDA per share
$5.43
Valuation Analysis Today of
AMWD
P/E Ratio:
33.03
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
5.32
P/E ratio is 520.37% higher than main peers & is 104.26% higher than the industry
-
AMWD is -277.66% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.46
Price to sales ratio is -49.78% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.16
-
Price to free cash flow ratio is 194.12% higher than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-3.04%
Net income growth rate is -95.98% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
81.17%
Net debt to equity ratio:
80.49%
Debt to assets ratio:
37.64%
Net debt to assets ratio:
37.32%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -49.33% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
8.87
Interest coverage ratio is -90.23% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
6.34%
Annual debt growth is -97% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 4.64%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.632
Statistical significance of correlation:
AMWD has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.556
Stock price is 13.63% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.556
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.004
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.009
Kurtosis
17.783
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.758
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
AMWD
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
49%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
1.95%
Operating profit margin is -73.68% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
49%
Effective Tax Rate:
-30.85%
Effective tax rate is -267.07% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-4.03%
Return on equity (ROE) is -113.75% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-1.87%
Return on assets (ROA) is -120.87% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.6x
Current Ratio:
1.79
Current ratio is 14.97% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
21.6
Cash conversion cycle is -61.56% below industry average
-
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-3.96%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
185.7K
Each employee generates -58% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
9.0K
Each employee generates -76% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 3.0K
Each employee generates -114% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 0.5K
Each employee generates -96% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
123.4K
Each employee generates -96% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
AMWD
THE CHILDREN'S PLACE, INC. (XNAS:PLCE)
TRAVELCENTERS OF AMERICA INC. (XNAS:TANNI)
PLBY GROUP, INC. (XNAS:PLBY)
WW International, Inc. (XNAS:WW)
ZUMIEZ INC. (XNAS:ZUMZ)
DENNY'S CORPORATION (XNAS:DENN)
SHOE CARNIVAL, INC. (XNAS:SCVL)
BLINK CHARGING CO. (XNAS:BLNK)
THE REALREAL, INC. (XNAS:REAL)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�0%
Hold�8%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
4/30/22
Revenue:
1.86B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
1.63B
226.44M
-
97.55M
190.10M
92.56M
-
190.10M
-
10.19M
96.61M
90.33M
36.16M
- 29722.00K
- 42979.00K
13.26M
- 29722.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
24.44M
Differed Income Tax :
- 24.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
1.18M
Change in Working Capital :
- 31207.00K
Accounts Receivables:
16.64M
Other Working Capital:
- 10538.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
9.22M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
6.59M
Investments in PP&E:
- 11871.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
7/31/21
2022
Q1
27.82M
-
27.82M
130.74M
181.79M
15.07M
355.42M
327.64M
767.61M
110.36M
-
1.56M
27.00M
1.23B
-
1.59B
87.21M
22.77M
-
-
88.84M
198.82M
598.33M
11.89M
653.67M
-
852.48M
359.73M
432.14M
- 54768.0K
-
July 31, 2021 at 6:00:00 AM
1.82B
737.10M
1.59B
-
621.10M
593.3M
-
- 2835.00K
- 14706.00K
- 29105.00K
-
- 25000.00K
-
- 1030.00K
- 55135.00K
-
- 63253.00K
27.82M
91.07M
6.59M
- 11871.00K
- 5283.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
AMWD
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$58.09
$37.55
$42.20
$47.43
$53.30