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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
American Tower Corporation (XNYS:AMT) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
AMT
Name:
AMERICAN TOWER CORPORATION (XNYS:AMT)
Sector:
277.50M
Industry:
REIT�Specialty
CEO:
Mr. Thomas Bartlett
Total Employees:
6,378
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is 26.76% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF AMERICAN TOWER CORPORATION(AMT) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND REIT�SPECIALTY INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
250.85
One Month Price Target:
$251.54
Six Month Price Target :
$255.01
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$259.17
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$250.08
Price Upper limit ($) :
$251.85
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$240.26
This week:
$227.16
This month :
$203.48
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
118.34B
Market Cap Classification:
Large Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
465.59M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
12.22%
-15.16%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$299.99
$277.39
$201.71
$224.31
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$270.04
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$265.21
$231.60
$236.49
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
AMT
Sharpe Ratio:
1.81%
Comparison:
AMT, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -8.49% lower than the industry
& is -20.78% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
AMT
Daily returns:
0.05%
Weekly returns:
0.23%
Monthly returns:
0.93%
Yearly returns:
14.77%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -24.64% below industry average
Classification:
AMT, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.97
Statistical test of Returns:
AMT has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.08%
Weekly Volatility:
4.65%
Monthly Volatility:
9.30%
Yearly Volatility:
32.20%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
2.00%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -3.62% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-4.22%
Weekly VaR:
-9.44%
Monthly VaR:
-18.88%
How Much Can the price of
AMT
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-16%
Worst case (decline):
-65.42%
This translates to price declining to:
$210.29
This translates to price declining to:
$86.75
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
AMT is a 33.28% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 14.18% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -25.98% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
AMT
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.49
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.5
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.707
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.055
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.688
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.763
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.018
Beta is -51.55% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.954
Beta is -48.27% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
2.25%
Sustainable growth rate is -42.46% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.046
Alpha is -9.57% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 293% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
AMT
Equity cost of capital:
0.065
Equity cost of capital is -32.56% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
0.73%
Before-tax cost of debt:
1.77%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.40%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.40%
WACC is -55.51% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$21.17
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
12.63
Annual revenue growth rate is 44.54% above the industry average
EPS:
$5.78
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
9.85%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -63.41% lower than the REIT�Specialty industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$6.41
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 67.64%
Equity growth rate per share is 445.05% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$99.19
EBITDA per share
$13.79
Valuation Analysis Today of
AMT
P/E Ratio:
41.23
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
50.99
P/E ratio is -19.14% lower than main peers & is -50.39% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $480.41
AMT is -47.78% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $227.60
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $192.84
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
11.85
Price to sales ratio is 62.71% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
12.63
Price to free cash flow: 39.12
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
105.79%
Net income growth rate is -60.47% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 24.34%
Dividend yeild: 2.20%
Previous Dividend: $1.43
Previous adjusted dividend: $1.43
Previous Dividend: $5.53
Expected next dividend best case: $1.55
Expected next dividend worst case: $1.31
Average dividend payment (long-term): $1.23
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 3.56%
Expected next dividend payment date: 10/06/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 15/09/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 07/08/2022
Previous dividend record date: 17/06/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-16--$1.43
2021-12-23--$1.39
2021-06-17--$1.27
2022-04-12--$1.40
2021-09-27--$1.31
2021-04-12--$1.24
Dividend growth rate is -93.09% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
861.12%
Net debt to equity ratio:
937.56%
Debt to assets ratio:
66.20%
Net debt to assets ratio:
72.07%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -14.01% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
6.93
Interest coverage ratio is 31.39% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
41.67%
Annual debt growth is 1287% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 3.79%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.675
Statistical significance of correlation:
AMT has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.604
Stock price is 11.80% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.604
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.006
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.007
Kurtosis
8.633
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.111
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
AMT
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
282%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
30.72%
Operating profit margin is 69.95% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
282%
Effective Tax Rate:
8.20%
Effective tax rate is -23.10% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
49.12%
Return on equity (ROE) is 168.11% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
3.78%
Return on assets (ROA) is -26.11% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
3.0x
Current Ratio:
0.41
Current ratio is -76.84% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-373.5
Cash conversion cycle is -931.05% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 6.7 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
2.15%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
1.5M
Each employee generates -81% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
1.0M
Each employee generates -85% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
413.0K
Each employee generates -86% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
43.5K
Each employee generates -97% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
10.3M
Each employee generates -97% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
AMT
PROLOGIS, INC. (XNYS:PLD)
CROWN CASTLE INC. (XNYS:CCI)
GNL-PB
SPG-PJ
SIMON PROPERTY GROUP, INC. (XNYS:SPG)
DIGITAL REALTY TRUST, INC. (XNYS:DLR)
REALTY INCOME CORPORATION (XNYS:O)
WELLTOWER INC. (XNYS:WELL)
CBRE GROUP, INC. (XNYS:CBRE)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�29%
Buy�58%
Hold�4%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
9.86B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
2.91B
6.95B
-
-
922.90M
-
3.00B
3.92B
38.90M
926.30M
2.63B
6.42B
3.03B
2.63B
2.85B
234.00M
2.63B
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
815.80M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
56.70M
Change in Working Capital :
- 652200.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
- 310700.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 259400.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
663.60M
Investments in PP&E:
- 386100.00K
Net Acquisitions:
- 128600.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
1.94B
-
1.94B
1.19B
-
663.30M
3.79B
29.18B
13.31B
20.22B
-
179.20M
3.08B
65.97B
-
69.76B
215.40M
6.04B
297.00M
1.02B
2.03B
9.30B
46.18B
3.25B
51.21B
-
60.51B
4.70M
- 1072400.00K
- 4553000.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
6.83B
5.36B
65.88B
-
52.22B
50.3B
3.20M
- 1600.00K
- 513100.00K
- 1817100.00K
-
-
- 641200.00K
2.21B
- 250900.00K
28.50M
- 71900.00K
2.27B
2.34B
663.60M
- 386100.00K
277.50M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
AMT
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$308.37
$318.60
$329.16
$340.07
$351.35