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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
American National Group, Inc. (XNAS:ANAT) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
ANAT
Name:
AMERICAN NATIONAL GROUP, INC. (XNAS:ANAT)
Sector:
97.26M
Industry:
Insurance�Diversified
CEO:
Mr. James Pozzi
Total Employees:
4,545
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
-
-
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF AMERICAN NATIONAL GROUP, INC.(ANAT) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND INSURANCE�DIVERSIFIED INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
189.06
One Month Price Target:
$189.78
Six Month Price Target :
$193.4
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$197.74
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$188.51
Price Upper limit ($) :
$189.99
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$180.84
This week:
$170.69
This month :
$152.32
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
5.08B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
26.89M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
16.09%
-9.92%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$227.14
$209.40
$150.98
$168.72
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$203.63
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$199.84
$174.44
$178.28
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
ANAT
Sharpe Ratio:
4.21%
Comparison:
ANAT, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 71.78% higher than the industry
& ratio is 84.54% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
ANAT
Daily returns:
0.10%
Weekly returns:
0.50%
Monthly returns:
2.00%
Yearly returns:
19.61%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 22.28% above industry average
Classification:
ANAT, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.09
Statistical test of Returns:
ANAT has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.16%
Weekly Volatility:
4.84%
Monthly Volatility:
9.68%
Yearly Volatility:
33.53%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
-
-
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-4.35%
Weekly VaR:
-9.72%
Monthly VaR:
-19.43%
How Much Can the price of
ANAT
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-16%
Worst case (decline):
-67.32%
This translates to price declining to:
$158.74
This translates to price declining to:
$61.78
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
ANAT is a 37.17% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 17.51% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -29.42% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
ANAT
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.68
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
-
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
-
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.67
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.417
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.666
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.07
Beta is -36.15% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.088
Beta is -37.21% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
10.08%
Sustainable growth rate is -88.99% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.161
Alpha is 79.33% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 1028% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
ANAT
Equity cost of capital:
0.078
Equity cost of capital is -26.16% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
7.68%
Before-tax cost of debt:
-
After-tax cost of debt:
-
Overall debt rating:
-
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
-
-
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$159.90
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
0.76
Annual revenue growth rate is -2.72% below industry average
EPS:
-
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
4.06%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -24.15% lower than the Insurance�Diversified industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -0.01%
Equity growth rate per share is -100.04% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$5.89
EBITDA per share
$31.17
Valuation Analysis Today of
ANAT
P/E Ratio:
7.97
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
10.51
P/E ratio is -24.22% lower than main peers & is -86.52% lower than the industry
-
-
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $51.90
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $41.89
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.18
Price to sales ratio is -58.42% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
0.76
-
Price to free cash flow ratio is -66.29% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
339.97%
Net income growth rate is -101.26% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 3.46%
Dividend yeild: 1.73%
Previous Dividend: $0.82
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.82
Previous Dividend: $3.28
-
-
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.82
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.00%
Expected next dividend payment date: 16/06/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 06/02/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 25/05/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 18/03/2022
Previous dividend record date: 03/04/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 24/02/2022
Dividend History:
2022-03-03--$0.82
2021-09-03--$0.82
2021-03-05--$0.82
2021-12-02--$0.82
2021-06-03--$0.82
2020-12-03--$0.82
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
2.36%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-15.46%
Debt to assets ratio:
0.51%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-3.36%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -99.46% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-
-
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-63.03%
Annual debt growth is 5711% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.498
Statistical significance of correlation:
ANAT has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.59
Stock price is -15.55% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.59
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.088
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.116
Kurtosis
9.645
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.398
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
ANAT
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
100%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
0.00%
Operating profit margin is -99.91% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
100%
Effective Tax Rate:
19.09%
Effective tax rate is -11.22% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
9.51%
Return on equity (ROE) is -151.26% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
2.07%
Return on assets (ROA) is 29.09% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
0
-
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 4.2 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
945.9K
Each employee generates -9% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
184.4K
Each employee generates -16% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
140.4K
Each employee generates 0% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
21.4K
Each employee generates -329% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
0.0K
Each employee generates -329% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
ANAT
SIMMONS FIRST NATIONAL CORPORATION (XNAS:SFNC)
OLD NATIONAL BANCORP (XNAS:ONB)
ATLANTIC UNION BANKSHARES CORPORATION (XNAS:AUB)
INDEPENDENT BANK GROUP, INC. (XNAS:IBTX)
CATHAY GENERAL BANCORP (XNAS:CATY)
COLUMBIA BANKING SYSTEM, INC. (XNAS:COLB)
PROSPECT CAPITAL CORPORATION (XNAS:PSEC)
INTERNATIONAL BANCSHARES CORPORATION (XNAS:IBOC)
NAVIENT CORPORATION (XNAS:NAVI)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: -
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
4.30B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
1.21B
-
-
-
-
25.67M
25.67M
-
-
49.47M
838.09M
-
637.92M
789.33M
150.70M
637.92M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
12.17M
Differed Income Tax :
- 8479.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
-
Change in Working Capital :
38.93M
Accounts Receivables:
- 14067.00K
Other Working Capital:
- 11134.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 45013.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
107.79M
Investments in PP&E:
- 10533.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 2135900.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
1.20B
10.69B
11.89B
856.25M
-
-
-
143.04M
-
-
17.80B
-
-
-
30.87B
30.87B
-
-
356.58M
-
-
-
158.35M
-
251.22M
24.41B
24.15B
269.00K
6.89B
- 224811.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
3.51B
6.71B
30.86B
28.49B
158.35M
- 1037409.0K
1.20B
67.56M
- 876852.00K
-
-
-
- 22048.00K
55.99M
33.94M
-
- 735125.00K
1.20B
1.93B
107.79M
- 10533.00K
97.26M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
-
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
ANAT
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$148.31
$155.12
$162.24
$169.69
$177.48