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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
American Campus Communities, Inc. (XNYS:ACC) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
ACC
Name:
AMERICAN CAMPUS COMMUNITIES, INC. (XNYS:ACC)
Sector:
63.16M
Industry:
REIT�Residential
CEO:
Mr. William Bayless
Total Employees:
3,006
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Technological advancement compared to industry is 1961.95% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF AMERICAN CAMPUS COMMUNITIES, INC.(ACC) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND REIT�RESIDENTIAL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
65.18
One Month Price Target:
$65.46
Six Month Price Target :
$66.87
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$68.56
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$64.93
Price Upper limit ($) :
$65.55
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$61.54
This week:
$57.05
This month :
$48.92
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
9.09B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
139.48M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
17.82%
-31.72%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$82.04
$74.24
$48.32
$56.12
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$71.70
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$70.04
$58.63
$60.32
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
ACC
Sharpe Ratio:
2.97%
Comparison:
ACC, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 87.33% higher than the industry
& ratio is 30.37% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
ACC
Daily returns:
0.09%
Weekly returns:
0.45%
Monthly returns:
1.82%
Yearly returns:
13.06%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 67.03% above industry average
Classification:
ACC, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.99
Statistical test of Returns:
ACC has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.76%
Weekly Volatility:
6.17%
Monthly Volatility:
12.34%
Yearly Volatility:
42.76%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
-
-
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.58%
Weekly VaR:
-12.47%
Monthly VaR:
-24.95%
How Much Can the price of
ACC
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-21%
Worst case (decline):
-86.41%
This translates to price declining to:
$51.48
This translates to price declining to:
$8.86
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
ACC is a 76.07% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 50.83% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 12.57% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
ACC
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.77
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.588
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.831
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.341
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.739
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.982
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.058
Beta is -27.02% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.785
Beta is -1.71% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.134
Alpha is 195.35% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 851% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
ACC
Equity cost of capital:
0.084
Equity cost of capital is -1.08% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
3.72%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.97%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.34%
Overall debt rating:
High AA grade (second highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.34%
WACC is -13.10% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$7.05
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.77
Annual revenue growth rate is -12.72% below industry average
EPS:
$0.40
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-26.72%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -628.14% lower than the REIT�Residential industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$2.06
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 4.22%
Equity growth rate per share is -202.12% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$28.74
EBITDA per share
$3.28
Valuation Analysis Today of
ACC
P/E Ratio:
164.98
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
25.36
P/E ratio is 550.46% higher than main peers & is 148.78% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $26.53
ACC is 145.72% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $32.61
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $22.28
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
9.24
Price to sales ratio is -21.15% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.77
Price to free cash flow: 31.59
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-69.86%
Net income growth rate is -93.51% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 111.96%
Dividend yeild: 2.88%
Previous Dividend: $0.47
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.47
Previous Dividend: $1.88
-
-
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.47
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.00%
Expected next dividend payment date: 26/05/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 05/05/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 25/04/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 25/02/2022
Previous dividend record date: 02/04/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 24/01/2022
Dividend History:
2022-02-03--$0.47
2021-08-13--$0.47
2021-01-27--$0.47
2021-11-12--$0.47
2021-05-07--$0.47
2020-11-13--$0.47
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
129.56%
Net debt to equity ratio:
126.73%
Debt to assets ratio:
53.47%
Net debt to assets ratio:
52.30%
Debt-to-asset ratio is 4.88% above industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
3.85
Interest coverage ratio is 47.03% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
11.50%
Annual debt growth is -358% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.03%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.612
Statistical significance of correlation:
ACC has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.63
Stock price is -2.87% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.63
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.052
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.084
Kurtosis
34.027
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-1.892
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
ACC
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
213%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
18.73%
Operating profit margin is -38.42% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
213%
Effective Tax Rate:
2.22%
Effective tax rate is 66.15% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
1.91%
Return on equity (ROE) is -77.62% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
0.79%
Return on assets (ROA) is -77.54% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
2.1x
Current Ratio:
2.18
Current ratio is -76.67% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
5.5
Cash conversion cycle is -61.38% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 4.0 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
7.27%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
327.2K
Each employee generates -59% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
152.1K
Each employee generates -74% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
19.6K
Each employee generates -91% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
21.0K
Each employee generates -72% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
2.5M
Each employee generates -72% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
ACC
FIRST INDUSTRIAL REALTY TRUST, INC. (XNYS:FR)
EASTGROUP PROPERTIES, INC. (XNYS:EGP)
HEALTHCARE REALTY TRUST INCORPORATED (XNYS:HR)
BRIXMOR PROPERTY GROUP INC. (XNYS:BRX)
STAG INDUSTRIAL, INC. (XNYS:STAG)
DOUGLAS EMMETT, INC. (XNYS:DEI)
Apartment Income REIT Corp. (XNYS:AIRC)
SPIRIT REALTY CAPITAL, INC. (XNYS:SRC)
STARWOOD PROPERTY TRUST, INC. (XNYS:STWD)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�13%
Hold�29%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
983.43M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
452.69M
530.74M
-
64.03M
64.03M
-
278.03M
342.06M
1.71M
118.88M
278.03M
457.32M
184.15M
59.05M
61.38M
1.36M
59.05M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
70.55M
Differed Income Tax :
340.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
4.29M
Change in Working Capital :
- 46513.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 6289.00K
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
2.02M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
73.41M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
87.66M
-
87.66M
20.48M
-
16.99M
125.12M
455.63M
-
-
-
-
6.92B
7.37B
-
7.50B
-
-
-
-
57.28M
57.28M
4.01B
152.20M
4.16B
-
4.22B
1.39M
- 1586700.00K
- 9830.0K
4.69B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
794.75M
3.09B
7.31B
-
4.01B
3.9B
-
- 27557.00K
- 27557.00K
- 1120.00K
-
-
- 66118.00K
- 8652.00K
- 75890.00K
-
- 30033.00K
104.64M
134.68M
73.41M
- 10252.00K
63.16M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
ACC
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$56.80
$59.74
$62.84
$66.10
$69.53