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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
America'S Car-Mart, Inc. (XNAS:CRMT) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
CRMT
Name:
AMERICA'S CAR-MART, INC. (XNAS:CRMT)
Sector:
- 33084.00K
Industry:
Auto & Truck Dealerships
CEO:
Mr. Jeffrey Williams
Total Employees:
2,100
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -52.10% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF AMERICA'S CAR-MART, INC.(CRMT) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND AUTO & TRUCK DEALERSHIPS INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
78.22
One Month Price Target:
$78.79
Six Month Price Target :
$81.66
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$85.1
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$77.72
Price Upper limit ($) :
$78.8
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$71.71
This week:
$63.67
This month :
$49.12
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
498.07M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
6.37M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
30.76%
-35.24%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$108.42
$94.61
$48.02
$61.83
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$90.11
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$87.17
$66.29
$69.27
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
CRMT
Sharpe Ratio:
0.93%
Comparison:
CRMT, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -66.57% lower than the industry
& is -59.30% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
CRMT
Daily returns:
0.05%
Weekly returns:
0.23%
Monthly returns:
0.93%
Yearly returns:
30.75%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -63.60% below industry average
Classification:
CRMT, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.89
Statistical test of Returns:
CRMT has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
4.07%
Weekly Volatility:
9.11%
Monthly Volatility:
18.21%
Yearly Volatility:
63.10%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.95%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -76.58% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-8.32%
Weekly VaR:
-18.60%
Monthly VaR:
-37.20%
How Much Can the price of
CRMT
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-32%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$52.90
This translates to price declining to:
$11.73
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
CRMT is a 162.55% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 124.92% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -0.56% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
CRMT
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.31
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.781
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.104
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.81
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.795
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.124
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.972
Beta is -33.62% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.468
Beta is -10.83% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
46.43%
Sustainable growth rate is 99.06% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.009
Alpha is -105.25% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -59% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
CRMT
Equity cost of capital:
0.121
Equity cost of capital is -8.25% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
7.50%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.74%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.16%
Overall debt rating:
High AA grade (second highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.16%
WACC is 12.16% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$178.97
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.18
Annual revenue growth rate is -19.66% below industry average
EPS:
$13.67
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
31.38%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 111.16% higher than the Auto & Truck Dealerships industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 9.10%
Equity growth rate per share is -75.99% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$52.39
EBITDA per share
$24.25
Valuation Analysis Today of
CRMT
P/E Ratio:
6.46
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
9.3
P/E ratio is -30.55% lower than main peers & is -92.71% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $1,210.56
CRMT is -93.54% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.44
Price to sales ratio is -42.99% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.18
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
211.20%
Net income growth rate is 55.25% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 0.01%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
79.02%
Net debt to equity ratio:
78.73%
Debt to assets ratio:
37.04%
Net debt to assets ratio:
36.90%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -38.91% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
16.83
Interest coverage ratio is 318.67% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
4.39%
Annual debt growth is -99% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 8.47%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.444
Statistical significance of correlation:
CRMT has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.499
Stock price is -10.90% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.499
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.022
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.052
Kurtosis
18.42
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.527
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
CRMT
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
184%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
13.23%
Operating profit margin is 625.59% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
184%
Effective Tax Rate:
22.15%
Effective tax rate is -19.21% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
26.09%
Return on equity (ROE) is -5752.65% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
12.23%
Return on assets (ROA) is -107.58% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.6x
Current Ratio:
23.39
Current ratio is 1220.89% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
17.5
Cash conversion cycle is 47.54% above industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 1.1 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
2.70%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
542.7K
Each employee generates -38% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
73.5K
Each employee generates 13% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
52.4K
Each employee generates 32% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 15.8K
Each employee generates -2984% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
48.6K
Each employee generates -2984% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
CRMT
CITI TRENDS, INC. (XNAS:CTRN)
GOLDEN NUGGET ONLINE GAMING, INC.. (XNAS:GNOG)
TRAVELCENTERS OF AMERICA INC. (XNAS:TANNI)
RUTH'S HOSPITALITY GROUP, INC. (XNAS:RUTH)
SHOE CARNIVAL, INC. (XNAS:SCVL)
WESTPORT FUEL SYSTEMS INC. (XNAS:WPRT)
THE LOVESAC COMPANY (XNAS:LOVE)
CHUY'S HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:CHUY)
DENNY'S CORPORATION (XNAS:DENN)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�0%
Hold�17%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
1/31/22
Revenue:
1.14B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
615.95M
523.66M
-
-
151.28M
-
221.64M
372.92M
-
9.18M
3.77M
154.41M
150.73M
110.13M
141.47M
31.34M
110.13M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
915.00K
Differed Income Tax :
1.97M
Stock Based Compensation :
2.97M
Change in Working Capital :
- 121613.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 137551.00K
Other Working Capital:
13.86M
Other Non-Cash Items:
59.39M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 31395.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 1689.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
7/31/21
2022
Q1
2.72M
-
2.72M
692.12M
97.03M
6.86M
798.73M
94.74M
7.28M
-
-
-
-
102.02M
-
900.75M
20.75M
1.49M
4.97M
-
11.91M
34.15M
333.62M
16.15M
444.32M
-
478.47M
136.00K
589.93M
-
- 168287.00K
July 31, 2021 at 6:00:00 AM
988.87M
422.18M
900.65M
-
335.11M
332.4M
-
-
- 1689.00K
- 30871.00K
81.00K
- 11618.00K
- 10.00K
75.33M
32.91M
-
- 174.00K
2.72M
2.89M
- 31395.00K
- 1689.00K
- 33084.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
CRMT
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$85.53
$134.82
$146.67
$159.57
$173.60