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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Ameren Corporation (XNYS:AEE) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
AEE
Name:
AMEREN CORPORATION (XNYS:AEE)
Sector:
- 402000.00K
Industry:
Utilities�Regulated Electric
CEO:
Mr. Warner Baxter
Total Employees:
9,116
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is 2.49% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF AMEREN CORPORATION(AEE) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND UTILITIES�REGULATED ELECTRIC INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
92.34
One Month Price Target:
$92.53
Six Month Price Target :
$93.48
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$94.62
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$92.09
Price Upper limit ($) :
$92.68
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$88.81
This week:
$84.46
This month :
$76.57
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
24.01B
Market Cap Classification:
Large Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
258.37M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
17.8%
-13.39%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$108.69
$101.16
$75.99
$83.52
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$98.70
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$97.10
$85.95
$87.58
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
AEE
Sharpe Ratio:
2.13%
Comparison:
AEE, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 82.15% higher than the industry
& is -6.38% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
AEE
Daily returns:
0.05%
Weekly returns:
0.25%
Monthly returns:
0.98%
Yearly returns:
7.85%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 49.95% above industry average
Classification:
AEE, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.69
Statistical test of Returns:
AEE has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
1.88%
Weekly Volatility:
4.21%
Monthly Volatility:
8.42%
Yearly Volatility:
29.17%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.40%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -25.42% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-3.82%
Weekly VaR:
-8.54%
Monthly VaR:
-17.07%
How Much Can the price of
AEE
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-15%
Worst case (decline):
-59.15%
This translates to price declining to:
$78.92
This translates to price declining to:
$37.72
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
AEE is a 20.51% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 3.24% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -7.21% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
AEE
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.37
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.486
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.687
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.175
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.477
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.713
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.607
Beta is -39.53% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.5
Beta is -26.50% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
4.53%
Sustainable growth rate is 29.72% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.061
Alpha is 378.49% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 388% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
AEE
Equity cost of capital:
0.057
Equity cost of capital is -13.80% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
2.69%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.73%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.16%
Overall debt rating:
High AA grade (second highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.16%
WACC is -18.26% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$25.96
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.4
Annual revenue growth rate is -126.57% below industry average
EPS:
$3.90
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
4.45%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -171.92% lower than the Utilities�Regulated Electric industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 23.65%
Equity growth rate per share is 303.10% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$48.62
EBITDA per share
$11.18
Valuation Analysis Today of
AEE
P/E Ratio:
23.69
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
44.95
P/E ratio is -47.29% lower than main peers & is -14.43% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $107.98
AEE is -14.49% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $95.39
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $60.21
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
3.56
Price to sales ratio is 22.53% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.4
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
19.90%
Net income growth rate is -775.56% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 15.06%
Dividend yeild: 2.47%
Previous Dividend: $0.59
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.59
Previous Dividend: $2.28
Expected next dividend best case: $0.62
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.56
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.53
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 1.81%
Expected next dividend payment date: 28/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 09/06/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 30/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 06/08/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-07--$0.59
2021-12-07--$0.55
2021-06-08--$0.55
2022-03-08--$0.59
2021-09-07--$0.55
2021-03-09--$0.55
Dividend growth rate is -281.01% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
128.12%
Net debt to equity ratio:
144.42%
Debt to assets ratio:
34.71%
Net debt to assets ratio:
39.12%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -44.78% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
7.46
Interest coverage ratio is 189.84% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
17.59%
Annual debt growth is -62% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.607
Statistical significance of correlation:
AEE has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.597
Stock price is 1.70% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.597
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.033
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.036
Kurtosis
20.451
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.163
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
AEE
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
181%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
20.10%
Operating profit margin is 72.75% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
181%
Effective Tax Rate:
13.93%
Effective tax rate is -30.80% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
10.29%
Return on equity (ROE) is 13.19% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
2.79%
Return on assets (ROA) is 20.55% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.5x
Current Ratio:
0.65
Current ratio is -73.02% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
38.7
Cash conversion cycle is -59.05% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 1.1 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
0.40%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
735.7K
Each employee generates -73% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
316.8K
Each employee generates -73% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
110.7K
Each employee generates -73% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 44.1K
Each employee generates 34% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
3.7M
Each employee generates 34% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
AEE
PPL CORPORATION (XNYS:PPL)
ENTERGY CORPORATION (XNYS:ETR)
DTE ENERGY COMPANY (XNYS:DTE)
FIRSTENERGY CORP. (XNYS:FE)
EDISON INTERNATIONAL (XNYS:EIX)
Avangrid, Inc. (XNYS:AGR)
CMS ENERGY CORPORATION (XNYS:CMS)
PG&E CORPORATION (XNYS:PCG)
BROOKFIELD INFRASTRUCTUR PARTNER UNT (XNYS:BIP)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�0%
Hold�25%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
6.71B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
3.67B
3.04B
-
- 46000.00K
- 46000.00K
-
1.69B
1.64B
19.00M
387.00M
1.33B
2.89B
1.35B
1.01B
1.18B
164.00M
1.01B
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
346.00M
Differed Income Tax :
31.00M
Stock Based Compensation :
4.00M
Change in Working Capital :
- 253000.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
60.00M
Other Non-Cash Items:
7.00M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
388.00M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 97000.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
7.00M
-
7.00M
930.00M
520.00M
574.00M
2.03B
29.58B
411.00M
-
1.09B
-
3.08B
34.17B
-
36.20B
690.00M
1.61B
-
-
849.00M
3.15B
12.56B
7.00B
23.12B
-
26.26B
3.00M
3.28B
14.0M
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
5.31B
9.81B
36.07B
-
14.17B
14.2B
92.00M
- 775000.00K
- 780000.00K
-
5.00M
-
- 152000.00K
538.00M
391.00M
-
- 1000.00K
154.00M
155.00M
388.00M
- 790000.00K
- 402000.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
AEE
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$95.09
$132.22
$135.48
$138.83
$142.25