_edited.png)
RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Amerco (XNAS:UHAL) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
UHAL
Name:
AMERCO (XNAS:UHAL)
Sector:
285.80M
Industry:
Rental & Leasing Services
CEO:
Mr. Edward Joseph Shoen J.D.
Total Employees:
15,456
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -142.99% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF AMERCO(UHAL) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND RENTAL & LEASING SERVICES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
521.43
One Month Price Target:
$524.19
Six Month Price Target :
$537.97
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$554.51
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$519.91
Price Upper limit ($) :
$523.78
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$498.5
This week:
$470.17
This month :
$418.9
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
10.28B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
19.61M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
15.22%
-13.02%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$627.74
$578.48
$415.12
$464.38
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$562.44
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$551.93
$480.28
$490.93
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
UHAL
Sharpe Ratio:
3.24%
Comparison:
UHAL, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 7.92% higher than the industry
& ratio is 41.94% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
UHAL
Daily returns:
0.08%
Weekly returns:
0.40%
Monthly returns:
1.59%
Yearly returns:
31.25%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -39.05% below industry average
Classification:
UHAL, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.85
Statistical test of Returns:
UHAL has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.18%
Weekly Volatility:
4.87%
Monthly Volatility:
9.75%
Yearly Volatility:
33.76%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
2.29%
Volatility in last five trading days has been 4.87% above long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-4.40%
Weekly VaR:
-9.83%
Monthly VaR:
-19.66%
How Much Can the price of
UHAL
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-16%
Worst case (decline):
-68.11%
This translates to price declining to:
$435.52
This translates to price declining to:
$166.26
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
UHAL is a 38.78% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 18.89% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -40.81% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
UHAL
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.94
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.674
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.953
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.552
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.434
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.669
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.278
Beta is -26.13% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.628
Beta is -42.01% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
14.99%
Sustainable growth rate is 24.18% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.094
Alpha is -44.36% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 600% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
UHAL
Equity cost of capital:
0.096
Equity cost of capital is -32.75% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
5.62%
Before-tax cost of debt:
3.33%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.63%
Overall debt rating:
High AA grade (second highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.63%
WACC is -3.01% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$285.67
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2
Annual revenue growth rate is 8.50% above the industry average
EPS:
$57.29
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
44.09%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 281.92% higher than the Rental & Leasing Services industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 66.68%
Equity growth rate per share is 155.30% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$242.90
EBITDA per share
$117.34
Valuation Analysis Today of
UHAL
P/E Ratio:
9.19
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
22.81
P/E ratio is -59.69% lower than main peers & is -49.01% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $1,032.91
UHAL is -49.52% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.83
Price to sales ratio is -3.05% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-22.81%
Net income growth rate is -110.01% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
Dividend yeild: 0.38%
Previous Dividend: $0.50
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.50
Previous Dividend: $2.00
Expected next dividend best case: $1.17
Expected next dividend worst case: -$0.17
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.71
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 37.50%
Expected next dividend payment date: 28/07/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 18/07/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 07/07/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 29/04/2022
Previous dividend record date: 18/04/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 04/08/2022
Dividend History:
2022-04-14--$0.50
2021-09-03--$0.50
2020-12-18--$2.00
2021-10-15--$0.50
2021-06-23--$0.50
2020-09-03--$0.50
Dividend growth rate is -9790.76% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
93.18%
Net debt to equity ratio:
63.44%
Debt to assets ratio:
31.51%
Net debt to assets ratio:
21.45%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -57.91% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
14.5
Interest coverage ratio is -136.48% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
0.71%
Annual debt growth is -97% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 3.14%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.449
Statistical significance of correlation:
UHAL has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.547
Stock price is -17.91% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.547
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.016
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.02
Kurtosis
8.897
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.085
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
UHAL
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
382%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
28.94%
Operating profit margin is 197.11% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
382%
Effective Tax Rate:
23.68%
Effective tax rate is 4.15% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
21.72%
Return on equity (ROE) is -145.28% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
7.35%
Return on assets (ROA) is 86.83% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.5x
Current Ratio:
1.3
Current ratio is 1.80% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
48.6
Cash conversion cycle is 121.04% above industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 6.1 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
362.4K
Each employee generates -84% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
148.9K
Each employee generates -100% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
71.8K
Each employee generates -100% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
18.5K
Each employee generates -91% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
834.8K
Each employee generates -91% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
UHAL
NORDSON CORPORATION (XNAS:NDSN)
C.H. ROBINSON WORLDWIDE, INC. (XNAS:CHRW)
BUILDERS FIRSTSOURCE, INC. (XNYS:BLDR)
AMERICAN AIRLINES GROUP INC. (XNAS:AAL)
THE MIDDLEBY CORPORATION (XNAS:MIDD)
ICAHN ENTERPRISES UNT (XNAS:IEP)
AXON ENTERPRISE, INC. (XNAS:AXON)
WOODWARD, INC. (XNAS:WWD)
LINCOLN ELECTRIC HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:LECO)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�4%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
12/31/21
Revenue:
5.60B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
247.99M
5.35B
-
218.00M
218.00M
-
3.49B
3.70B
102.96M
158.64M
687.39M
2.30B
1.62B
1.11B
1.45B
344.50M
1.11B
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
172.04M
Differed Income Tax :
82.37M
Stock Based Compensation :
-
Change in Working Capital :
221.06M
Accounts Receivables:
- 8082.00K
Other Working Capital:
2.87M
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 26435.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
794.21M
Investments in PP&E:
- 508411.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 301317.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
6/30/21
2022
Q1
1.52B
-
1.52B
267.54M
117.98M
306.57M
2.21B
9.47B
-
-
3.28B
-
148.08M
12.90B
-
15.11B
696.80M
-
-
-
1.01B
1.70B
4.76B
2.24B
8.30B
-
10.00B
10.50M
5.29B
31.1M
- 223831.00K
June 30, 2021 at 6:00:00 AM
3.95B
5.11B
15.11B
-
4.76B
3.2B
139.51M
147.06M
- 523158.00K
- 154504.00K
-
-
-
210.95M
56.45M
- 1531.00K
325.97M
1.52B
1.19B
794.21M
- 508411.00K
285.80M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
UHAL
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$557.28
$1,070.89
$1,138.84
$1,211.10
$1,287.94