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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Amerant Bancorp Inc. (XNAS:AMTB) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
AMTB
Name:
AMERANT BANCORP INC. (XNAS:AMTB)
Sector:
- 14035.00K
Industry:
Banks�Regional
CEO:
Mr. Millar Wilson
Total Employees:
763
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Technological advancement compared to industry is 463.65% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF AMERANT BANCORP INC.(AMTB) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BANKS�REGIONAL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
25.71
One Month Price Target:
$25.89
Six Month Price Target :
$26.79
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$27.87
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$25.57
Price Upper limit ($) :
$25.89
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$23.82
This week:
$21.49
This month :
$17.26
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
858.94M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
33.78M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
21.88%
-19.63%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$34.47
$30.44
$16.95
$20.98
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$29.13
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$28.26
$22.28
$23.16
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
AMTB
Sharpe Ratio:
2.18%
Comparison:
AMTB, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 77.63% higher than the industry
& is -4.27% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
AMTB
Daily returns:
0.09%
Weekly returns:
0.44%
Monthly returns:
1.76%
Yearly returns:
10.91%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 93.22% above industry average
Classification:
AMTB, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.81
Statistical test of Returns:
AMTB has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.62%
Weekly Volatility:
8.09%
Monthly Volatility:
16.19%
Yearly Volatility:
56.08%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.87%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -76.04% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-7.35%
Weekly VaR:
-16.43%
Monthly VaR:
-32.86%
How Much Can the price of
AMTB
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-28%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$18.50
This translates to price declining to:
$3.86
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
AMTB is a 131.90% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 98.67% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 26.73% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
AMTB
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.25
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.695
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.983
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.547
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.634
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.064
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.045
Beta is 19.73% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.964
Beta is 29.88% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
13.29%
Sustainable growth rate is 45.57% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.094
Alpha is 706.69% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 596% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
AMTB
Equity cost of capital:
0.117
Equity cost of capital is 20.23% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
5.12%
Before-tax cost of debt:
3.11%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.45%
Overall debt rating:
High AA grade (second highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.45%
WACC is -11.06% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$8.11
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.16
Annual revenue growth rate is -101.73% below industry average
EPS:
$3.10
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
35.50%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 195.25% higher than the Banks�Regional industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$1.17
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -100.00%
Equity growth rate per share is -358.25% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$37.54
EBITDA per share
$5.76
Valuation Analysis Today of
AMTB
P/E Ratio:
8.86
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
19.93
P/E ratio is -55.52% lower than main peers & is -28.58% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $38.47
AMTB is -33.16% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
3.17
Price to sales ratio is -25.91% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.16
Price to free cash flow: 22.06
Price to free cash flow ratio is 29.98% higher than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
150.80%
Net income growth rate is 173.83% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 2.76%
Dividend yeild: 0.93%
Previous Dividend: $0.09
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.09
Previous Dividend: $0.24
Expected next dividend best case: $0.16
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.02
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.08
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 25.00%
Expected next dividend payment date: 29/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 08/11/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 13/07/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 31/05/2022
Previous dividend record date: 13/05/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 14/04/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-12--$0.09
2021-12-21--$0.06
--$0.00
2022-02-10--$0.09
--$0.00
--$0.00
Dividend growth rate is 6.13% higher than the average industry
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
168.38%
Net debt to equity ratio:
132.53%
Debt to assets ratio:
16.24%
Net debt to assets ratio:
12.79%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -90.24% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
4.94
Interest coverage ratio is 495.62% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-8.83%
Annual debt growth is -2887% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 12.47%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.412
Statistical significance of correlation:
AMTB has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.501
Stock price is -17.79% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.501
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.036
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.075
Kurtosis
7.64
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.445
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
AMTB
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
0.00%
-
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Effective Tax Rate:
23.51%
Effective tax rate is 9.12% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
15.19%
Return on equity (ROE) is 27.35% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
1.47%
Return on assets (ROA) is -36.40% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.2x
Current Ratio:
0
-
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 7.3 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.10%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
359.2K
Each employee generates -5% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
254.9K
Each employee generates 13% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
150.0K
Each employee generates 6% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 18.4K
Each employee generates -122% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
1.9M
Each employee generates -122% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
AMTB
AMTBB
FLUSHING FINANCIAL CORPORATION (XNAS:FFIC)
BLUCORA, INC. (XNAS:BCOR)
QCR HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:QCRH)
E.MERGE TECHNOLOGY ACQUISITION CORP. (XNAS:ETAC)
CROSSFIRST BANKSHARES, INC. (XNAS:CFB)
HERITAGE COMMERCE CORP (XNAS:HTBK)
TriState Capital Holdings, Inc. (XNAS:TSC)
TWCT
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: -
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
274.06M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
-
-
142.89M
145.86M
2.97M
-
-
252.61M
39.40M
6.64M
194.48M
-
114.41M
144.77M
34.04M
114.41M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
1.15M
Differed Income Tax :
3.17M
Stock Based Compensation :
1.26M
Change in Working Capital :
- 12287.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 243.00K
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 20289.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 12118.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 1917.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 107769.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
269.95M
1.15B
1.42B
96.17M
-
-
-
177.41M
19.51M
-
1.27B
-
-
1.47B
9.27B
7.81B
-
-
-
-
-
-
1.27B
-
1.27B
8.32B
7.06B
3.43M
565.96M
- 24424.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
-
753.08M
7.81B
2.42B
1.27B
998.1M
75.78M
- 152281.00K
- 186188.00K
- 180714.00K
-
- 55816.00K
- 3154.00K
439.98M
200.29M
-
1.99M
276.19M
274.21M
- 12118.00K
- 1917.00K
- 14035.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
AMTB
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$28.01
$51.66
$56.00
$60.71
$65.82