_edited.png)
RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Amedisys, Inc. (XNAS:AMED) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
AMED
Name:
AMEDISYS, INC. (XNAS:AMED)
Sector:
47.48M
Industry:
Medical Care Facilities
CEO:
Mr. Paul Kusserow
Total Employees:
21,000
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A
Technological advancement compared to industry is 314.16% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF AMEDISYS, INC.(AMED) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND MEDICAL CARE FACILITIES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
116.33
One Month Price Target:
$116.94
Six Month Price Target :
$120.01
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$123.7
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$115.74
Price Upper limit ($) :
$116.91
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$109.2
This week:
$100.4
This month :
$84.46
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
3.73B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
32.44M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
13.33%
-21.91%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$149.42
$134.39
$83.24
$98.27
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$129.50
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$126.29
$103.12
$106.37
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
AMED
Sharpe Ratio:
-0.43%
Comparison:
AMED, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -119.17% lower than the industry
& is -118.70% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
AMED
Daily returns:
0.00%
Weekly returns:
-0.02%
Monthly returns:
-0.08%
Yearly returns:
23.01%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -104.02% below industry average
Classification:
AMED, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.84
Statistical test of Returns:
AMED has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.98%
Weekly Volatility:
6.66%
Monthly Volatility:
13.33%
Yearly Volatility:
46.18%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.95%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -34.66% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.13%
Weekly VaR:
-13.70%
Monthly VaR:
-27.39%
How Much Can the price of
AMED
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-24%
Worst case (decline):
-94.89%
This translates to price declining to:
$88.09
This translates to price declining to:
$5.94
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
AMED is a 93.34% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 65.63% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -10.66% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
AMED
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.94
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.793
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.122
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.679
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.845
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.715
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.082
Beta is -12.88% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.067
Beta is -11.67% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
26.08%
Sustainable growth rate is -27.54% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.105
Alpha is -183.91% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -670% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
AMED
Equity cost of capital:
0.096
Equity cost of capital is -8.16% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
6.93%
Before-tax cost of debt:
1.95%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.54%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.54%
WACC is 1.96% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$68.50
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
3.7
Annual revenue growth rate is -24.73% below industry average
EPS:
$5.80
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
17.08%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 26.93% higher than the Medical Care Facilities industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$5.17
-
-
Debt per share
$15.40
EBITDA per share
$10.41
Valuation Analysis Today of
AMED
P/E Ratio:
27.2
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
381.9
P/E ratio is -92.88% lower than main peers & is -61.34% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $408.10
AMED is -71.49% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.7
Price to sales ratio is -19.80% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
3.7
Price to free cash flow: 22.50
Price to free cash flow ratio is -14.41% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
76.43%
Net income growth rate is -50.20% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
51.69%
Net debt to equity ratio:
49.25%
Debt to assets ratio:
26.19%
Net debt to assets ratio:
24.95%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -51.48% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
31.77
Interest coverage ratio is 59.57% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
77.70%
Annual debt growth is -23% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.46
Statistical significance of correlation:
AMED has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.432
Stock price is 6.55% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.432
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.054
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.093
Kurtosis
6.85
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.752
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
AMED
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
177%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
10.40%
Operating profit margin is -245.55% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
177%
Effective Tax Rate:
25.09%
Effective tax rate is 14.94% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
19.74%
Return on equity (ROE) is 10.69% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
10.00%
Return on assets (ROA) is 128.97% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.4x
Current Ratio:
1.03
Current ratio is -43.92% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
34
Cash conversion cycle is 25.79% above industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 0.8 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
3.85%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
105.8K
Each employee generates -70% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
16.1K
Each employee generates -71% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
9.1K
Each employee generates -69% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
2.3K
Each employee generates -67% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
72.2K
Each employee generates -67% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
AMED
ICU MEDICAL, INC. (XNAS:ICUI)
PREMIER, INC. (XNAS:PINC)
ABCAM PLC (XNAS:ABCM)
Ortho Clinical Diagnostics Holdings plc (XNAS:OCDX)
ULTRAGENYX PHARMACEUTICAL INC. (XNAS:RARE)
ACADIA HEALTHCARE COMPANY, INC. (XNAS:ACHC)
DENALI THERAPEUTICS INC. (XNAS:DNLI)
FATE THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:FATE)
CEREVEL THERAPEUTICS HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:CERE)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�13%
Hold�25%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
2.22B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
1.24B
981.25M
-
723.47M
723.47M
-
26.76M
750.22M
38.00K
10.63M
71.96M
337.63M
231.03M
190.87M
255.76M
64.17M
190.87M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
18.10M
Differed Income Tax :
3.21M
Stock Based Compensation :
7.35M
Change in Working Capital :
- 15114.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 18618.00K
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
3.37M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
48.62M
Investments in PP&E:
- 902.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
67.83M
-
67.83M
293.58M
-
31.07M
392.49M
120.10M
1.20B
106.53M
-
-
84.64M
1.52B
-
1.91B
36.62M
44.21M
-
-
299.32M
380.15M
499.75M
4.92M
507.59M
-
887.74M
38.00K
670.73M
-
295.99M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
1.99B
966.76M
1.85B
-
543.96M
476.1M
-
- 15177.00K
- 16079.00K
-
-
- 4682.00K
-
- 2720.00K
- 7402.00K
-
25.14M
70.91M
45.77M
48.62M
- 1138.00K
47.48M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
AMED
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$124.32
$820.73
$872.72
$928.00
$986.78