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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Amdocs Limited (XNAS:DOX) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
DOX
Name:
Amdocs Limited (XNAS:DOX)
Sector:
146.89M
Industry:
Software�Infrastructure
CEO:
Mr. Shuky Sheffer
Total Employees:
27,176
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A
Technological advancement compared to industry is 52.00% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF AMDOCS LIMITED(DOX) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND SOFTWARE�INFRASTRUCTURE INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
83.78
One Month Price Target:
$84.1
Six Month Price Target :
$85.7
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$87.62
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$83.57
Price Upper limit ($) :
$84.06
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$80.9
This week:
$77.34
This month :
$70.91
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
10.15B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
121.96M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
10.19%
-13.25%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$97.13
$90.98
$70.43
$76.58
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$88.98
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$87.67
$78.56
$79.89
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
DOX
Sharpe Ratio:
1.92%
Comparison:
DOX, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 17.61% higher than the industry
& is -15.63% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
DOX
Daily returns:
0.04%
Weekly returns:
0.21%
Monthly returns:
0.83%
Yearly returns:
14.38%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -30.91% below industry average
Classification:
DOX, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.92
Statistical test of Returns:
DOX has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
1.69%
Weekly Volatility:
3.79%
Monthly Volatility:
7.57%
Yearly Volatility:
26.23%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.45%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -73.32% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-3.44%
Weekly VaR:
-7.68%
Monthly VaR:
-15.36%
How Much Can the price of
DOX
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-13%
Worst case (decline):
-53.22%
This translates to price declining to:
$72.79
This translates to price declining to:
$39.19
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
DOX is a 8.44% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is -7.10% less risky than Nasdaq(IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -49.19% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
DOX
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.68
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.712
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.007
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.566
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.56
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.6
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.466
Beta is -53.41% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.112
Beta is -38.57% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
9.55%
Sustainable growth rate is -97.41% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.021
Alpha is -41.70% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 134% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
DOX
Equity cost of capital:
0.078
Equity cost of capital is -27.29% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
6.49%
Before-tax cost of debt:
0.98%
After-tax cost of debt:
0.77%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
0.77%
WACC is -8.67% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$36.11
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.86
Annual revenue growth rate is -73.14% below industry average
EPS:
$4.47
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$4.39
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 46.48%
Equity growth rate per share is -1892.37% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$6.72
EBITDA per share
$6.96
Valuation Analysis Today of
DOX
P/E Ratio:
19.22
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
56.38
P/E ratio is -65.91% lower than main peers & is -70.54% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $291.60
DOX is -71.27% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $72.62
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $35.77
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
2.32
Price to sales ratio is -78.87% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.86
Price to free cash flow: 19.10
Price to free cash flow ratio is -60.71% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
115.29%
Net income growth rate is -98.64% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 8.00%
Dividend yeild: 1.80%
Previous Dividend: $0.40
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.40
Previous Dividend: $1.51
Expected next dividend best case: $0.42
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.37
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.35
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 3.46%
Expected next dividend payment date: 27/10/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 28/09/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 29/07/2022
Previous dividend record date: 30/06/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-29--$0.40
2021-12-30--$0.36
2021-06-29--$0.36
2022-03-30--$0.40
2021-09-29--$0.36
2021-03-30--$0.36
Dividend growth rate is -46.93% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
23.20%
Net debt to equity ratio:
8.28%
Debt to assets ratio:
12.51%
Net debt to assets ratio:
4.46%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -82.07% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
98.42
Interest coverage ratio is -146.64% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
9.72%
Annual debt growth is -91% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.696
Statistical significance of correlation:
DOX has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.48
Stock price is 45.06% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.48
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.038
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.038
Kurtosis
13.034
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.835
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
DOX
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
141%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
14.38%
Operating profit margin is -221.13% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
141%
Effective Tax Rate:
10.98%
Effective tax rate is -64.94% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
15.89%
Return on equity (ROE) is -85.11% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
8.57%
Return on assets (ROA) is -326.29% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.1x
Current Ratio:
1.5
Current ratio is -35.71% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-48.9
Cash conversion cycle is -143.44% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 3.9 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
2.98%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
162.0K
Each employee generates -59% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
31.2K
Each employee generates -52% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
20.7K
Each employee generates -1% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
5.4K
Each employee generates -73% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
164.7K
Each employee generates -73% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 10.96%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -522.49% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
DOX
MKS INSTRUMENTS, INC. (XNAS:MKSI)
LATTICE SEMICONDUCTOR CORPORATION (XNAS:LSCC)
dLocal Ltd (XNAS:DLO)
FIVE9, INC. (XNAS:FIVN)
DROPBOX, INC. (XNAS:DBX)
FIRST SOLAR, INC. (XNAS:FSLR)
Nuvei Corp (XTSE:NVEI)
ASPEN TECHNOLOGY, INC. (XNAS:AZPN)
SYNAPTICS INCORPORATED (XNAS:SYNA)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�17%
Buy�0%
Hold�21%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
4.40B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
2.85B
1.55B
331.13M
-
511.47M
-
73.11M
915.71M
-
8.62M
208.60M
848.32M
633.05M
561.77M
631.10M
69.33M
561.77M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
50.88M
Differed Income Tax :
4.14M
Stock Based Compensation :
16.74M
Change in Working Capital :
7.97M
Accounts Receivables:
- 84458.00K
Other Working Capital:
88.08M
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 9212.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
204.12M
Investments in PP&E:
- 57225.00K
Net Acquisitions:
- 23885.00K
Purchases of Investments:
- 34275.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
12/31/21
2022
Q1
586.49M
282.35M
868.84M
953.97M
-
255.98M
2.08B
937.79M
-
-
-
-
612.90M
4.48B
-
6.56B
994.98M
59.33M
-
334.69M
-
1.39B
819.79M
769.88M
1.59B
-
2.98B
-
-
-
-
December 31, 2021 at 12:00:00 AM
3.77B
3.53B
6.51B
-
879.12M
292.6M
5.24M
- 548.00K
- 110691.00K
-
-
- 170904.00K
- 44956.00K
- 141.00K
- 216001.00K
-
- 122574.00K
586.49M
709.06M
204.12M
- 57225.00K
146.89M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
DOX
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$88.06
$145.63
$152.32
$159.31
$166.62