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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Amc Networks Inc. (XNAS:AMCX) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
AMCX
Name:
AMC NETWORKS INC. (XNAS:AMCX)
Sector:
- 35083.00K
Industry:
Broadcasting
CEO:
Mr. Joshua Sapan
Total Employees:
1,739
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Technological advancement compared to industry is 1465.54% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF AMC NETWORKS INC.(AMCX) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BROADCASTING INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
25.32
One Month Price Target:
$25.47
Six Month Price Target :
$26.22
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$27.12
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$25.15
Price Upper limit ($) :
$25.5
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$23.23
This week:
$20.65
This month :
$15.99
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
1.09B
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
42.92M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
23.59%
-19.32%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$35.01
$30.59
$15.63
$20.05
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$29.15
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$28.21
$21.48
$22.43
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
AMCX
Sharpe Ratio:
0.41%
Comparison:
AMCX, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -67.89% lower than the industry
& is -81.99% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
AMCX
Daily returns:
0.03%
Weekly returns:
0.13%
Monthly returns:
0.51%
Yearly returns:
11.39%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -46.56% below industry average
Classification:
AMCX, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.87
Statistical test of Returns:
AMCX has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
4.02%
Weekly Volatility:
9.00%
Monthly Volatility:
18.00%
Yearly Volatility:
62.35%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.23%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -69.54% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-8.24%
Weekly VaR:
-18.43%
Monthly VaR:
-36.85%
How Much Can the price of
AMCX
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-32%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$17.14
This translates to price declining to:
$3.80
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
AMCX is a 160.09% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 122.82% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 33.33% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
AMCX
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.06
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.967
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.367
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.319
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.734
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.614
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.161
Beta is -8.98% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.203
Beta is -12.19% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
45.90%
Sustainable growth rate is 192.14% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.043
Alpha is -146905.92% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -274% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
AMCX
Equity cost of capital:
0.104
Equity cost of capital is -8.82% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
3.13%
Before-tax cost of debt:
4.15%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.28%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.28%
WACC is -9.88% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$72.18
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
0.86
Annual revenue growth rate is -45.26% below industry average
EPS:
$6.15
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-5.19%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -120.71% lower than the Broadcasting industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$68.50
EBITDA per share
$36.01
Valuation Analysis Today of
AMCX
P/E Ratio:
3.5
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
30.79
P/E ratio is -88.62% lower than main peers & is -73.90% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $82.57
AMCX is -69.34% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.35
Price to sales ratio is -85.14% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
0.86
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-36.07%
Net income growth rate is -565.78% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
317.71%
Net debt to equity ratio:
236.72%
Debt to assets ratio:
51.13%
Net debt to assets ratio:
38.10%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -25.49% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
12.35
Interest coverage ratio is 183.61% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
5.04%
Annual debt growth is -70% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.31%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.368
Statistical significance of correlation:
AMCX has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.52
Stock price is -29.12% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.52
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0
Kurtosis
4.618
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.586
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
AMCX
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
215%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
15.97%
Operating profit margin is 183.59% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
215%
Effective Tax Rate:
27.14%
Effective tax rate is -77.20% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
28.94%
Return on equity (ROE) is 854.80% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
4.66%
Return on assets (ROA) is 42.59% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
2.0x
Current Ratio:
1.89
Current ratio is 13.56% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
33.3
Cash conversion cycle is -2.82% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 6.1 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
3.04%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
1.8M
Each employee generates 95% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
888.7K
Each employee generates 243% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
154.0K
Each employee generates 72% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 20.2K
Each employee generates -210% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
2.2M
Each employee generates -210% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
AMCX
THE E.W. SCRIPPS COMPANY (XNAS:SSP)
SCR
Cimpress plc (XNAS:CMPR)
Hello Group Inc. (XNAS:MOMO)
GOGO INC. (XNAS:GOGO)
PARTNER COMMUNICATIONS COMPANY LTD. (XNAS:PTNR)
SCHOLASTIC CORPORATION (XNAS:SCHL)
LIBERTY MEDIA CORPORATION (XNAS:BATRA)
LIBERTY MEDIA CORPORATION (XNAS:BATRK)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�21%
Hold�42%
Sell�8%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
3.10B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
1.44B
1.66B
-
-
930.85M
-
91.23M
1.02B
10.36M
125.13M
1.04B
1.55B
494.89M
267.76M
405.76M
110.11M
267.76M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
215.44M
Differed Income Tax :
21.43M
Stock Based Compensation :
8.13M
Change in Working Capital :
- 384798.00K
Accounts Receivables:
37.51M
Other Working Capital:
- 343519.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
5.71M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 23555.00K
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
1.77M
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
821.63M
-
821.63M
773.27M
-
372.50M
1.97B
341.07M
701.24M
2.24B
-
12.04M
484.25M
3.78B
-
5.75B
161.97M
72.13M
-
205.43M
602.21M
1.04B
2.94B
317.54M
3.44B
-
4.49B
775.00K
2.20B
- 193580.0K
- 1084079.00K
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
2.46B
925.35M
5.41B
-
3.01B
2.2B
-
- 11528.00K
- 9757.00K
- 9154.00K
-
- 20292.00K
-
- 1565.00K
- 31011.00K
- 6272.00K
- 70595.00K
821.63M
892.22M
- 23555.00K
- 11528.00K
- 35083.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
AMCX
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$27.26
$71.69
$76.78
$82.23
$88.07