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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Amalgamated Bank (XNAS:AMAL) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
AMAL
Name:
Amalgamated Bank (XNAS:AMAL)
Sector:
16.01M
Industry:
Banks�Regional
CEO:
Mr. Keith Mestrich
Total Employees:
375
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is -16.30% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF AMALGAMATED BANK(AMAL) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BANKS�REGIONAL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
22.25
One Month Price Target:
$22.35
Six Month Price Target :
$22.86
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$23.48
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$22.15
Price Upper limit ($) :
$22.38
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$20.82
This week:
$19.06
This month :
$15.86
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
675.67M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
30.68M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
17.01%
-14.42%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$28.88
$25.83
$15.62
$18.67
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$24.84
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$24.19
$19.65
$20.31
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
AMAL
Sharpe Ratio:
1.86%
Comparison:
AMAL, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 51.45% higher than the industry
& is -18.38% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
AMAL
Daily returns:
0.07%
Weekly returns:
0.34%
Monthly returns:
1.35%
Yearly returns:
10.91%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 48.74% above industry average
Classification:
AMAL, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.57
Statistical test of Returns:
AMAL has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.16%
Weekly Volatility:
7.06%
Monthly Volatility:
14.13%
Yearly Volatility:
48.94%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.15%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -63.70% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.42%
Weekly VaR:
-14.36%
Monthly VaR:
-28.71%
How Much Can the price of
AMAL
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-25%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$16.77
This translates to price declining to:
$3.34
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
AMAL is a 102.65% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 73.61% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 10.59% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
AMAL
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.82
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.672
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.951
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.691
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.484
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.709
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.72
Beta is 13.81% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.964
Beta is -14.95% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
7.34%
Sustainable growth rate is -19.65% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.075
Alpha is 543.41% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 475% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
AMAL
Equity cost of capital:
0.088
Equity cost of capital is -10.12% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
7.38%
Before-tax cost of debt:
5.12%
After-tax cost of debt:
4.04%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
4.04%
WACC is -24.42% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$6.79
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.3
Annual revenue growth rate is -62.59% below industry average
EPS:
$1.75
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
4.08%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -66.05% lower than the Banks�Regional industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$1.76
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -100.00%
Equity growth rate per share is -358.25% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$4.29
EBITDA per share
$2.74
Valuation Analysis Today of
AMAL
P/E Ratio:
10.87
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
13.94
P/E ratio is -22.00% lower than main peers & is -12.37% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $21.72
AMAL is 2.46% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $16.97
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $3.65
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
3.28
Price to sales ratio is -23.39% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.3
Price to free cash flow: 12.64
Price to free cash flow ratio is -75.43% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
15.75%
Net income growth rate is -71.40% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 4.53%
Dividend yeild: 1.44%
Previous Dividend: $0.08
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.08
Previous Dividend: $0.32
-
-
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.08
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.00%
Expected next dividend payment date: 23/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 08/09/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 26/07/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 25/05/2022
Previous dividend record date: 05/11/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 27/04/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-10--$0.08
2021-11-18--$0.08
2021-08-17--$0.08
2022-02-14--$0.08
2021-11-17--$0.08
2021-05-13--$0.08
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
25.02%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-46.01%
Debt to assets ratio:
1.72%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-3.17%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -98.97% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
12.49
Interest coverage ratio is 1406.89% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
150.43%
Annual debt growth is 47399% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.393
Statistical significance of correlation:
AMAL has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.501
Stock price is -21.55% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.501
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.044
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.08
Kurtosis
4.166
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.284
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
AMAL
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
0.00%
-
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Effective Tax Rate:
25.30%
Effective tax rate is 17.43% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
10.43%
Return on equity (ROE) is -12.59% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
0.72%
Return on assets (ROA) is -68.87% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
0
-
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 3.1 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.20%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
555.7K
Each employee generates 46% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
224.6K
Each employee generates -1% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
146.4K
Each employee generates 3% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
42.7K
Each employee generates -49% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
9.2M
Each employee generates -49% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
AMAL
ALERUS FINANCIAL CORPORATION (XNAS:ALRS)
SENIOR CONNECT ACQUISITION CORP. I (XNAS:SNRH)
MAAC
WATERSTONE FINANCIAL, INC. (XNAS:WSBF)
BUSINESS FIRST BANCSHARES, INC. (XNAS:BFST)
SVAC
MARLIN TECHNOLOGY CORPORATION (XNAS:FINM)
MIDWESTONE FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. (XNAS:MOFG)
TCV Acquisition Corp (XNAS:TCVA)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�17%
Hold�8%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
208.38M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
-
-
90.82M
94.31M
3.49M
-
-
187.57M
6.74M
3.96M
84.22M
-
54.91M
73.51M
18.60M
54.91M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
1.16M
Differed Income Tax :
- 1876.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
661.00K
Change in Working Capital :
- 897.00K
Accounts Receivables:
1.41M
Other Working Capital:
- 501.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
3.62M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
16.83M
Investments in PP&E:
- 818.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 594666.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
374.04M
2.42B
2.80B
27.41M
-
-
-
45.10M
12.94M
3.89M
3.37B
-
-
3.44B
11.09B
7.65B
-
-
-
-
-
-
131.75M
-
131.75M
7.26B
7.13B
310.00K
271.72M
- 40846.0K
295.44M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
-
526.63M
7.65B
5.80B
131.75M
- 242290.0K
119.54M
- 108863.00K
- 584805.00K
-
52.00K
- 2941.00K
- 2490.00K
616.91M
611.53M
-
43.56M
374.04M
330.49M
16.83M
- 818.00K
16.01M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
AMAL
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$25.97
$27.40
$28.91
$30.51
$32.19