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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Altra Industrial Motion Corp. (XNAS:AIMC) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
AIMC
Name:
ALTRA INDUSTRIAL MOTION CORP. (XNAS:AIMC)
Sector:
- 42700.00K
Industry:
Specialty Industrial Machinery
CEO:
Mr. Carl Christenson
Total Employees:
9,600
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is -3.02% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF ALTRA INDUSTRIAL MOTION CORP.(AIMC) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND SPECIALTY INDUSTRIAL MACHINERY INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
37.11
One Month Price Target:
$37.54
Six Month Price Target :
$39.7
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$42.29
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$36.91
Price Upper limit ($) :
$37.37
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$34.37
This week:
$30.98
This month :
$24.84
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
2.49B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
65.07M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
22.52%
-17.34%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$49.84
$43.99
$24.38
$30.23
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$42.08
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$40.83
$32.12
$33.39
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
AIMC
Sharpe Ratio:
1.89%
Comparison:
AIMC, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -0.32% lower than the industry
& is -17.14% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
AIMC
Daily returns:
0.08%
Weekly returns:
0.39%
Monthly returns:
1.55%
Yearly returns:
16.25%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 14.53% above industry average
Classification:
AIMC, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.36
Statistical test of Returns:
AIMC has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.64%
Weekly Volatility:
8.13%
Monthly Volatility:
16.27%
Yearly Volatility:
56.35%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.93%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -74.31% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-7.39%
Weekly VaR:
-16.53%
Monthly VaR:
-33.06%
How Much Can the price of
AIMC
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-28%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$26.59
This translates to price declining to:
$5.57
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
AIMC is a 133.33% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 99.89% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 32.94% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
AIMC
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--2.08
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.085
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.535
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.789
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.109
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.058
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.267
Beta is 63.77% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.281
Beta is 61.96% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
6.01%
Sustainable growth rate is -59.64% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.012
Alpha is -71.23% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 79% compared to market & is healthy
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
AIMC
Equity cost of capital:
0.174
Equity cost of capital is 45.59% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
6.60%
Before-tax cost of debt:
6.12%
After-tax cost of debt:
4.83%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
4.83%
WACC is -66.54% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$29.81
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.2
Annual revenue growth rate is -125.67% below industry average
EPS:
$0.50
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-40.36%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -1423.42% lower than the Specialty Industrial Machinery industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$1.62
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -46.26%
Equity growth rate per share is -528.53% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$21.91
EBITDA per share
$3.37
Valuation Analysis Today of
AIMC
P/E Ratio:
134.52
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
89.59
P/E ratio is 50.15% higher than main peers & is 388.89% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $13.76
AIMC is 169.75% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $9.67
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $2.18
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.25
Price to sales ratio is -70.00% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.2
Price to free cash flow: 22.96
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-54.05%
Net income growth rate is -4115.92% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 15.62%
Dividend yeild: 0.89%
Previous Dividend: $0.09
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.09
Previous Dividend: $0.33
Expected next dividend best case: $0.13
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.05
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.09
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 1.94%
Expected next dividend payment date: 10/04/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 15/09/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 07/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 17/06/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-16--$0.09
2021-12-16--$0.08
2021-06-17--$0.08
2022-03-16--$0.08
2021-09-16--$0.08
2021-03-17--$0.06
Dividend growth rate is -44.36% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
71.03%
Net debt to equity ratio:
63.23%
Debt to assets ratio:
34.56%
Net debt to assets ratio:
30.77%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -35.95% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
2.47
Interest coverage ratio is -87.37% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
0.00%
-
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.54%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.655
Statistical significance of correlation:
AIMC has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.635
Stock price is 3.07% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.635
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.024
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.051
Kurtosis
5.781
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.198
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
AIMC
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
141%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
5.15%
Operating profit margin is -121.27% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
141%
Effective Tax Rate:
-129.66%
Effective tax rate is -793.85% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
1.66%
Return on equity (ROE) is -50.62% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
0.81%
Return on assets (ROA) is -82.80% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.5x
Current Ratio:
2.9
Current ratio is -4.00% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
23.1
Cash conversion cycle is -62.40% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 5.5 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
11.71%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
202.0K
Each employee generates -95% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
22.8K
Each employee generates -97% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
3.5K
Each employee generates -99% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 4.4K
Each employee generates -109% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
305.2K
Each employee generates -109% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 10.55%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -2.23% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
AIMC
FRONTIER GROUP HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:ULCC)
KORNIT DIGITAL LTD (XNAS:KRNT)
BALLARD POWER SYSTEMS INC. (XNAS:BLDP)
FRANKLIN ELECTRIC CO., INC. (XNAS:FELE)
51job, Inc. (XNAS:JOBS)
RENT-A-CENTER, INC. (XNAS:RCII)
EXPONENT, INC. (XNAS:EXPO)
ALLEGIANT TRAVEL COMPANY (XNAS:ALGT)
RBC BEARINGS INCORPORATED (XNAS:ROLL)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�4%
Hold�13%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
1.94B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
1.26B
684.00M
65.60M
-
367.50M
-
-
433.10M
-
88.90M
115.80M
219.20M
99.90M
33.30M
14.50M
- 18800.00K
33.30M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
24.20M
Differed Income Tax :
- 4400.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
3.90M
Change in Working Capital :
- 98100.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 56500.00K
Other Working Capital:
2.60M
Other Non-Cash Items:
4.70M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 24900.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 17800.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
183.70M
-
183.70M
279.80M
308.30M
423.30M
1.20B
323.40M
1.56B
1.04B
-
1.20M
12.90M
2.93B
-
4.12B
179.00M
27.30M
13.10M
-
205.80M
412.10M
1.43B
37.00M
1.71B
-
2.12B
100.00K
317.20M
- 28500.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
1.69B
2.01B
4.12B
-
1.45B
1.3B
-
-
- 17800.00K
- 7800.00K
-
- 4100.00K
- 5200.00K
-
- 17100.00K
- 2600.00K
- 62400.00K
183.70M
246.10M
- 24900.00K
- 17800.00K
- 42700.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
AIMC
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$43.14
$49.15
$56.01
$63.82
$72.72