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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Altice Usa, Inc. (XNYS:ATUS) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
ATUS
Name:
ALTICE USA, INC. (XNYS:ATUS)
Sector:
207.85M
Industry:
Telecom Services
CEO:
Mr. Dexter Goei
Total Employees:
9,000
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -75.25% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF ALTICE USA, INC.(ATUS) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND TELECOM SERVICES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
9.86
One Month Price Target:
$9.93
Six Month Price Target :
$10.28
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$10.7
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$9.8
Price Upper limit ($) :
$9.91
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$9.18
This week:
$8.34
This month :
$6.82
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
4.41B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
454.67M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
22.33%
-22.59%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$13.02
$11.61
$6.70
$8.11
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$11.14
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$10.84
$8.57
$8.88
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
ATUS
Sharpe Ratio:
-2.86%
Comparison:
ATUS, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -394.51% lower than the industry
& is -225.63% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
ATUS
Daily returns:
-0.09%
Weekly returns:
-0.43%
Monthly returns:
-1.72%
Yearly returns:
17.77%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -216.43% below industry average
Classification:
ATUS, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.22
Statistical test of Returns:
ATUS has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.32%
Weekly Volatility:
7.42%
Monthly Volatility:
14.85%
Yearly Volatility:
51.43%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
3.68%
Volatility in last five trading days has been 10.84% above long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.90%
Weekly VaR:
-15.44%
Monthly VaR:
-30.88%
How Much Can the price of
ATUS
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-28%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$7.07
This translates to price declining to:
$1.48
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
ATUS is a 117.94% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 86.71% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -2.59% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
ATUS
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.26
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.146
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.62
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
-0.038
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.909
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.67
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.871
Beta is 45.04% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.819
Beta is 54.36% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.325
Alpha is -460.47% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -2069% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
ATUS
Equity cost of capital:
0.118
Equity cost of capital is 34.81% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
-0.35%
Before-tax cost of debt:
4.70%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.71%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.71%
WACC is -5.58% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$22.07
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
-7.15
Annual revenue growth rate is -91.71% below industry average
EPS:
$1.98
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
116.80%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 371.60% higher than the Telecom Services industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$2.79
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -100.00%
Equity growth rate per share is 528.63% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$56.56
EBITDA per share
$9.28
Valuation Analysis Today of
ATUS
P/E Ratio:
5.53
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
14.99
P/E ratio is -63.13% lower than main peers & is -81.27% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $58.43
ATUS is -83.12% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.45
Price to sales ratio is -92.86% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
-7.15
Price to free cash flow: 3.53
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
6507.06%
Net income growth rate is 1498.91% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
-4425.58%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-4558.74%
Debt to assets ratio:
77.58%
Net debt to assets ratio:
79.92%
Debt-to-asset ratio is 1.48% above industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
3.37
Interest coverage ratio is 114.40% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
0.23%
Annual debt growth is -100% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 1.38%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.487
Statistical significance of correlation:
ATUS has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.461
Stock price is 5.50% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.461
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.044
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.085
Kurtosis
10.842
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.09
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
ATUS
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
266%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
24.20%
Operating profit margin is 673.35% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
266%
Effective Tax Rate:
22.14%
Effective tax rate is -31.39% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-157.08%
Return on equity (ROE) is 3990.79% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
2.75%
Return on assets (ROA) is -1611.02% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
4.5x
Current Ratio:
0.28
Current ratio is -82.54% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-132
Cash conversion cycle is -286.43% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 0.0 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
4.44%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
1.1M
Each employee generates 11% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
468.9K
Each employee generates 36% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
101.4K
Each employee generates -3% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
23.1K
Each employee generates -60% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
3.6M
Each employee generates -60% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
ATUS
THE NEW YORK TIMES COMPANY (XNYS:NYT)
Mobile TeleSystems Public Joint Stock Company (XNYS:MBT)
PLDT Inc. (XNYS:PHI)
KT CORPORATION (XNYS:KT)
ENDEAVOR GROUP HOLDINGS, INC. (XNYS:EDR)
Grupo Televisa SAB (XNYS:TV)
Tim SA (XNYS:TIMB)
DOLBY LABORATORIES, INC. (XNYS:DLB)
CABLE ONE, INC. (XNYS:CABO)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�33%
Hold�29%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
10.03B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
3.36B
6.67B
-
-
-
-
4.23B
4.23B
133.00K
1.25B
1.79B
4.22B
2.43B
912.73M
1.20B
265.81M
912.73M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
435.35M
Differed Income Tax :
- 16149.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
40.53M
Change in Working Capital :
- 157100.00K
Accounts Receivables:
9.11M
Other Working Capital:
5.62M
Other Non-Cash Items:
95.45M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
600.22M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
195.65M
-
195.65M
386.93M
-
200.40M
782.98M
6.74B
8.21B
15.27B
-
-
2.14B
32.36B
-
33.14B
999.50M
969.41M
-
110.88M
697.58M
2.78B
25.71B
246.20M
30.99B
-
33.77B
4.55M
- 652285.00K
8.2M
58.53M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
7.59B
- 581042.00K
33.19B
-
26.68B
26.5B
-
- 391483.00K
- 391483.00K
- 358629.00K
-
-
-
150.00M
- 208629.00K
- 170.00K
- 63.00K
195.91M
195.98M
600.22M
- 392371.00K
207.85M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
ATUS
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$10.75
$31.14
$33.78
$36.65
$39.76