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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Alphabet Inc. (XNAS:GOOGL) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
GOOGL
Name:
ALPHABET INC. (XNAS:GOOGL)
Sector:
15.32B
Industry:
Internet Content & Information
CEO:
Mr. Sundar Pichai
Total Employees:
174,014
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -185.74% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF ALPHABET INC.(GOOGL) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND INTERNET CONTENT & INFORMATION INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
107.85
One Month Price Target:
$108.51
Six Month Price Target :
$111.8
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$115.75
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$107.56
Price Upper limit ($) :
$108.33
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$103.27
This week:
$97.61
This month :
$87.38
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
1411.91B
Market Cap Classification:
Large Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
13.04B
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
9.24%
-11.63%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$129.07
$119.20
$86.63
$96.50
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$115.99
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$113.88
$99.68
$101.82
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
GOOGL
Sharpe Ratio:
3.90%
Comparison:
GOOGL, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 12359.72% higher than the industry
& ratio is 70.98% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
GOOGL
Daily returns:
0.09%
Weekly returns:
0.46%
Monthly returns:
1.82%
Yearly returns:
0.13%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 16170.94% above industry average
Classification:
GOOGL, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.4
Statistical test of Returns:
GOOGL has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.11%
Weekly Volatility:
4.72%
Monthly Volatility:
9.44%
Yearly Volatility:
32.71%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.30%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -38.45% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-4.24%
Weekly VaR:
-9.49%
Monthly VaR:
-18.98%
How Much Can the price of
GOOGL
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-16%
Worst case (decline):
-65.76%
This translates to price declining to:
$90.87
This translates to price declining to:
$36.93
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
GOOGL is a 33.98% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 14.78% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -48.45% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
GOOGL
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.09
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.789
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.115
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.003
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.983
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.669
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.794
Beta is 37.24% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.399
Beta is -22.10% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
31.56%
Sustainable growth rate is -3.82% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.113
Alpha is -189.36% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 717% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
GOOGL
Equity cost of capital:
0.106
Equity cost of capital is -16.63% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
9.77%
Before-tax cost of debt:
1.83%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.44%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.44%
WACC is -2.38% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$20.72
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
5.54
Annual revenue growth rate is -43.19% below industry average
EPS:
$108.65
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
31.28%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 24.94% higher than the Internet Content & Information industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$104.32
-
-
Debt per share
$2.01
EBITDA per share
$7.83
Valuation Analysis Today of
GOOGL
P/E Ratio:
20.07
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
34.09
P/E ratio is -41.14% lower than main peers & is -47.09% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $4,120.55
GOOGL is -97.38% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
5.2
Price to sales ratio is 1.93% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
5.54
Price to free cash flow: 1.03
Price to free cash flow ratio is -42.24% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
157.53%
Net income growth rate is -299.17% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
10.30%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-2.40%
Debt to assets ratio:
7.32%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-1.71%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -83.22% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
378.24
Interest coverage ratio is 3029.30% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
6.06%
Annual debt growth is -99% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 38.57%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.814
Statistical significance of correlation:
GOOGL has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.473
Stock price is 72.05% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.473
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.01
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.013
Kurtosis
3.314
Returns are, approximately, normally distributed (mesokurtic)
Skewness of returns:
-0.022
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
GOOGL
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
228%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
30.47%
Operating profit margin is 5297.80% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
228%
Effective Tax Rate:
15.67%
Effective tax rate is 21.87% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
29.35%
Return on equity (ROE) is -439.85% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
20.87%
Return on assets (ROA) is 1243.60% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.1x
Current Ratio:
2.87
Current ratio is -19.80% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
38.1
Cash conversion cycle is -43.60% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 5.4 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
6.04%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
1.6M
Each employee generates 74% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
586.9K
Each employee generates 460% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
428.4K
Each employee generates 864% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
88.0K
Each employee generates -12% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
1.0M
Each employee generates -12% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 14.47%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -345.94% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
GOOGL
ALPHABET INC. (XNAS:GOOG)
Meta Platforms, Inc. (XNAS:META)
NETFLIX, INC. (XNAS:NFLX)
T-MOBILE US, INC. (XNAS:TMUS)
CHARTER COMMUNICATIONS, INC. (XNAS:CHTR)
AIRBNB, INC. (XNAS:ABNB)
NETEASE, INC. (XNAS:NTES)
Baidu, Inc. (XNAS:BIDU)
ZOOM VIDEO COMMUNICATIONS, INC. (XNAS:ZM)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�54%
Buy�104%
Hold�21%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
270.33B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
116.44B
153.90B
33.20B
14.11B
38.33B
24.22B
-
71.53B
1.15B
270.00M
13.47B
102.13B
82.37B
74.54B
88.39B
13.85B
74.54B
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
3.78B
Differed Income Tax :
- 2090000.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
4.50B
Change in Working Capital :
897.00M
Accounts Receivables:
4.36B
Other Working Capital:
3.73B
Other Non-Cash Items:
1.58B
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
25.11B
Investments in PP&E:
- 9786000.00K
Net Acquisitions:
- 173000.00K
Purchases of Investments:
- 29238000.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
20.89B
113.08B
133.97B
35.62B
1.37B
6.89B
177.85B
117.21B
23.01B
1.31B
30.54B
1.39B
5.78B
179.24B
-
357.10B
3.44B
-
4.34B
3.20B
55.31B
61.95B
26.15B
11.65B
41.14B
-
103.09B
-
195.22B
- 4049000.0K
62.83B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
187.96B
254.00B
357.10B
143.63B
14.79B
- 6095000.0K
29.79B
355.00M
- 9051000.00K
- 16420000.00K
-
- 13300000.00K
-
13.51B
- 16214000.00K
100.00M
- 59000.00K
20.89B
20.95B
25.11B
- 9786000.00K
15.32B
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
GOOGL
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$116.33
$2,150.28
$2,307.72
$2,476.70
$2,658.05