_edited.png)
RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc. (XNYS:AMR) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
AMR
Name:
ALPHA METALLURGICAL RESOURCES, INC. (XNYS:AMR)
Sector:
307.98M
Industry:
Coking Coal
CEO:
Harlan H. Chappelle
Total Employees:
3,560
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is 0.00% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF ALPHA METALLURGICAL RESOURCES, INC.(AMR) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND COKING COAL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
149.66
One Month Price Target:
$150.69
Six Month Price Target :
$155.82
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$161.99
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$148.91
Price Upper limit ($) :
$152.45
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$129.28
This week:
$104.09
This month :
$58.52
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
2.67B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
17.32M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
64.65%
-23.64%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$243.93
$198.76
$55.39
$100.56
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$184.06
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$174.42
$115.14
$124.90
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
AMR
Sharpe Ratio:
9.66%
Comparison:
AMR, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 28.36% higher than the industry
& ratio is 323.98% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
AMR
Daily returns:
0.68%
Weekly returns:
3.41%
Monthly returns:
13.63%
Yearly returns:
115.76%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 41.32% above industry average
Classification:
AMR, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.07
Statistical test of Returns:
AMR has yielded a higher return than the market, the results are statistically significant
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
6.96%
Weekly Volatility:
15.57%
Monthly Volatility:
31.14%
Yearly Volatility:
107.86%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
3.97%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -42.91% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-13.62%
Weekly VaR:
-30.45%
Monthly VaR:
-60.90%
How Much Can the price of
AMR
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-46%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$80.82
This translates to price declining to:
$22.45
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
AMR is a 329.80% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 268.21% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 15.59% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
AMR
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.23
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.948
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.34
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.955
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.995
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.314
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.437
Beta is -14.74% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.095
Beta is 11.90% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
1.521
Alpha is 44.66% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 9679% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
AMR
Equity cost of capital:
0.115
Equity cost of capital is 8.38% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
9.00%
Before-tax cost of debt:
12.74%
After-tax cost of debt:
10.06%
Overall debt rating:
Non-investment grade (junk/speculative grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
10.06%
WACC is 8.86% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$169.95
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.79
Annual revenue growth rate is 318.83% above the industry average
EPS:
$37.34
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$24.57
-
-
Debt per share
$14.37
EBITDA per share
$45.58
Valuation Analysis Today of
AMR
P/E Ratio:
2.19
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
83.43
-
-
-
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.88
Price to sales ratio is -44.68% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.79
Price to free cash flow: 6.09
FALSE
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-42.14%
Net income growth rate is -1241.91% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
Dividend yeild: 0.25%
Previous Dividend: $0.38
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.38
Previous Dividend: $0.38
-
-
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.38
-
Expected next dividend payment date: 29/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 13/09/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 07/01/2022
Previous dividend record date: 15/06/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-14--$0.38
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
26.77%
Net debt to equity ratio:
9.88%
Debt to assets ratio:
11.78%
Net debt to assets ratio:
4.35%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -80.43% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
24.66
Interest coverage ratio is 609.50% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
0.00%
-
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 44.67%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.354
Statistical significance of correlation:
AMR has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.299
Stock price is 18.32% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.299
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.042
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.172
Kurtosis
13.209
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
1.599
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
AMR
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
111%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
28.08%
Operating profit margin is 2420.67% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
111%
Effective Tax Rate:
-5.60%
Effective tax rate is -3229.44% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
77.72%
Return on equity (ROE) is -693.53% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
34.20%
Return on assets (ROA) is 4895.27% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.1x
Current Ratio:
2.81
Current ratio is 33.33% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
62.7
Cash conversion cycle is 139.54% above industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 0.7 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
0.16%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
827.0K
Each employee generates -3% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
221.8K
Each employee generates -10% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
203.0K
Each employee generates 9% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
86.5K
Each employee generates -19% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
308.5K
Each employee generates -19% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
AMR
WHFBZ
MATTHEWS INTERNATIONAL CORPORATION (XNAS:MATW)
ENERGY RECOVERY, INC. (XNAS:ERII)
Tecnoglass Inc (XNYS:TGLS)
FORRESTER RESEARCH, INC. (XNAS:FORR)
HURON CONSULTING GROUP INC. (XNAS:HURN)
HYDROFARM HOLDINGS GROUP, INC. (XNAS:HYFM)
IES Holdings, Inc. (XNAS:IESC)
TRAVELCENTERS OF AMERICA INC. (XNAS:TANNL)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�4%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
2.94B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
1.97B
971.28M
-
-
64.01M
-
9.26M
73.26M
354.00K
32.02M
77.77M
789.71M
826.73M
722.72M
763.86M
- 42806.00K
722.72M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
33.78M
Differed Income Tax :
4.68M
Stock Based Compensation :
1.18M
Change in Working Capital :
- 104407.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
-
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
336.13M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 50.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
159.46M
-
159.46M
636.15M
161.75M
57.21M
1.01B
369.45M
-
68.45M
-
-
660.53M
1.10B
-
2.11B
109.41M
2.43M
-
-
249.08M
360.93M
248.94M
568.30M
822.23M
-
1.18B
210.00K
329.27M
- 57728.0K
658.10M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
2.10B
929.85M
2.11B
-
251.37M
91.9M
28.44M
- 31940.00K
- 3552.00K
- 201004.00K
-
- 21844.00K
-
3.15M
- 219700.00K
-
112.87M
295.49M
-
336.13M
- 28146.00K
307.98M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
AMR
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$162.80
$974.66
$1,054.93
$1,141.80
$1,235.83