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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Alpha And Omega Semiconductor Limited (XNAS:AOSL) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
AOSL
Name:
ALPHA AND OMEGA SEMICONDUCTOR LIMITED (XNAS:AOSL)
Sector:
55.61M
Industry:
Semiconductors
CEO:
Dr. Mike Chang
Total Employees:
3,939
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -172.35% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF ALPHA AND OMEGA SEMICONDUCTOR LIMITED(AOSL) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND SEMICONDUCTORS INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
36.01
One Month Price Target:
$36.51
Six Month Price Target :
$39.03
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$42.06
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$35.82
Price Upper limit ($) :
$36.38
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$32.74
This week:
$28.69
This month :
$21.37
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
927.88M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
27.37M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
21.37%
-21.84%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$51.17
$44.07
$20.85
$27.95
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$41.76
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$40.24
$30.24
$31.78
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
AOSL
Sharpe Ratio:
5.45%
Comparison:
AOSL, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 76.01% higher than the industry
& ratio is 139.10% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
AOSL
Daily returns:
0.26%
Weekly returns:
1.28%
Monthly returns:
5.14%
Yearly returns:
31.95%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 92.95% above industry average
Classification:
AOSL, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.29
Statistical test of Returns:
AOSL has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
4.55%
Weekly Volatility:
10.17%
Monthly Volatility:
20.35%
Yearly Volatility:
70.49%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
2.91%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -35.96% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-9.09%
Weekly VaR:
-20.32%
Monthly VaR:
-40.64%
How Much Can the price of
AOSL
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-33%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$24.13
This translates to price declining to:
$5.40
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
AOSL is a 186.86% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 145.75% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 28.21% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
AOSL
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--2.50
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.53
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
2.163
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.981
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.509
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.706
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.409
Beta is 77.37% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.41
Beta is 77.23% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
92.84%
Sustainable growth rate is 235.73% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.414
Alpha is 116.19% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 2633% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
AOSL
Equity cost of capital:
0.203
Equity cost of capital is 58.24% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
16.07%
Before-tax cost of debt:
1.51%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.19%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.19%
WACC is 58.85% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$27.80
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.82
Annual revenue growth rate is 50.88% above the industry average
EPS:
$16.21
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
480.76%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 822.09% higher than the Semiconductors industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$3.55
-
-
Debt per share
$4.16
EBITDA per share
$19.64
Valuation Analysis Today of
AOSL
P/E Ratio:
2.25
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
88.89
P/E ratio is -97.47% lower than main peers & is -94.58% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $672.34
AOSL is -94.64% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.3
Price to sales ratio is -84.06% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.82
Price to free cash flow: 10.14
Price to free cash flow ratio is -74.43% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
277.67%
Net income growth rate is -584.75% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
28.40%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-14.57%
Debt to assets ratio:
11.48%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-5.89%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -70.55% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
183.95
Interest coverage ratio is 461.06% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
35.00%
Annual debt growth is -62% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 10.89%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.551
Statistical significance of correlation:
AOSL has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.627
Stock price is -12.10% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.627
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.018
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.047
Kurtosis
2.6
Returns are, approximately, normally distributed (mesokurtic)
Skewness of returns:
0.358
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
AOSL
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
140%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
13.97%
Operating profit margin is -40.64% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
140%
Effective Tax Rate:
7.93%
Effective tax rate is -47.45% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
114.65%
Return on equity (ROE) is 300.95% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
46.35%
Return on assets (ROA) is 252.09% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.1x
Current Ratio:
1.84
Current ratio is -54.69% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-7.1
Cash conversion cycle is -112.95% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 16.1 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.01%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
193.2K
Each employee generates -69% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
136.5K
Each employee generates -41% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
116.7K
Each employee generates -28% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
14.1K
Each employee generates -49% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
131.7K
Each employee generates -49% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 22.83%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is 61.24% higher than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
AOSL
MAGIC SOFTWARE ENTERPRISES LTD. (XNAS:MGIC)
Cantaloupe, Inc. (XNAS:CTLP)
SKYWATER TECHNOLOGY, INC. (XNAS:SKYT)
HARMONIC INC. (XNAS:HLIT)
PHOTRONICS, INC. (XNAS:PLAB)
TUCOWS INC. (XNAS:TCX)
CASA SYSTEMS, INC. (XNAS:CASA)
INSEEGO CORP. (XNAS:INSG)
MAXEON SOLAR TECHNOLOGIES, LTD. (XNAS:MAXN)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�8%
Hold�4%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
760.90M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
494.99M
265.91M
68.16M
-
91.50M
-
-
159.65M
-
2.92M
35.58M
537.68M
106.26M
459.62M
498.80M
39.56M
459.62M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
13.72M
Differed Income Tax :
638.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
4.64M
Change in Working Capital :
40.15M
Accounts Receivables:
- 3528.00K
Other Working Capital:
215.96M
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 1959.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
80.61M
Investments in PP&E:
- 24993.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
9/30/21
2022
Q1
252.45M
-
252.45M
44.14M
163.44M
13.04M
473.07M
486.52M
269.00K
21.62M
100.00K
5.22M
4.89M
518.61M
-
991.68M
81.68M
80.21M
3.00M
17.14M
78.07M
257.11M
113.85M
1.79M
192.58M
-
449.69M
66.00K
200.31M
2.2M
198.27M
September 30, 2021 at 6:00:00 AM
654.64M
400.87M
850.56M
-
194.06M
- 58390.0K
-
1.08M
- 23911.00K
- 13911.00K
-
-
-
7.38M
- 6535.00K
- 11.00K
50.15M
254.96M
204.81M
80.61M
- 24993.00K
55.61M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
AOSL
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$42.27
$2,536.02
$2,962.00
$3,459.54
$4,040.65