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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (XNAS:ALNY) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
ALNY
Name:
ALNYLAM PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. (XNAS:ALNY)
Sector:
- 189052.00K
Industry:
Biotechnology
CEO:
Dr. John Maraganore
Total Employees:
1,665
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is -6.31% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF ALNYLAM PHARMACEUTICALS, INC.(ALNY) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BIOTECHNOLOGY INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
205.45
One Month Price Target:
$206.09
Six Month Price Target :
$209.27
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$213.09
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$204.53
Price Upper limit ($) :
$206.92
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$191.3
This week:
$173.81
This month :
$142.16
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
24.16B
Market Cap Classification:
Large Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
120.03M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
49.33%
-17.1%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$271.06
$240.61
$139.84
$170.29
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$230.70
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$224.20
$180.11
$186.70
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
ALNY
Sharpe Ratio:
3.67%
Comparison:
ALNY, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 88.72% higher than the industry
& ratio is 61.00% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
ALNY
Daily returns:
0.13%
Weekly returns:
0.67%
Monthly returns:
2.69%
Yearly returns:
25.22%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 27.81% above industry average
Classification:
ALNY, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.51
Statistical test of Returns:
ALNY has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.42%
Weekly Volatility:
7.65%
Monthly Volatility:
15.29%
Yearly Volatility:
52.97%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
2.19%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -35.84% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.89%
Weekly VaR:
-15.40%
Monthly VaR:
-30.80%
How Much Can the price of
ALNY
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-26%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$152.65
This translates to price declining to:
$30.82
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
ALNY is a 117.42% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 86.26% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -28.08% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
ALNY
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.55
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.506
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.715
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.164
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.744
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.452
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.889
Beta is -37.73% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.152
Beta is -51.96% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.253
Alpha is 78.35% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 1610% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
ALNY
Equity cost of capital:
0.069
Equity cost of capital is -37.13% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
2.06%
Before-tax cost of debt:
-13.38%
After-tax cost of debt:
-10.57%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
-10.57%
WACC is -79.45% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$7.33
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
61.47
Annual revenue growth rate is 54.68% above the industry average
EPS:
-$7.48
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-3.89%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -138.97% lower than the Biotechnology industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$7.95
EBITDA per share
-$8.18
Valuation Analysis Today of
ALNY
P/E Ratio:
-
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
77.39
-
-
ALNY is -130.61% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
28.02
Price to sales ratio is -30.82% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
61.47
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-2.03%
Net income growth rate is -102.87% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
237.83%
Net debt to equity ratio:
114.99%
Debt to assets ratio:
27.79%
Net debt to assets ratio:
13.44%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -34.09% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
7.38
Interest coverage ratio is -106.23% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
145.39%
Annual debt growth is 8% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.332
Statistical significance of correlation:
ALNY has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.34
Stock price is -2.51% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.34
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.002
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.003
Kurtosis
63.075
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
4.059
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
ALNY
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
334%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-76.04%
Operating profit margin is -82.26% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
334%
Effective Tax Rate:
0.08%
Effective tax rate is -98.60% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-222.57%
Return on equity (ROE) is 288.20% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-26.00%
Return on assets (ROA) is 27.46% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.4x
Current Ratio:
4.27
Current ratio is -47.21% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-49.9
Cash conversion cycle is -109.37% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 5.5 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-3.28%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
528.5K
Each employee generates -67% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
- 590.0K
Each employee generates -253% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 536.3K
Each employee generates -519% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 113.5K
Each employee generates -177% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
506.8K
Each employee generates -177% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 20.97%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -684.59% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
ALNY
HOLOGIC, INC. (XNAS:HOLX)
VIATRIS INC. (XNAS:VTRS)
ROYALTY PHARMA PLC (XNAS:RPRX)
PPD
argenx SE (XNAS:ARGX)
BIO-TECHNE CORPORATION (XNAS:TECH)
INCYTE CORPORATION (XNAS:INCY)
BIOMARIN PHARMACEUTICAL INC. (XNAS:BMRN)
ABIOMED, INC. (XNAS:ABMD)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�46%
Hold�17%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
879.98M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
144.71M
735.27M
776.15M
441.87M
628.25M
-
140.14M
1.54B
2.14M
- 133174.00K
44.43M
- 982333.00K
- 669130.00K
- 892874.00K
- 892225.00K
- 711.00K
- 892874.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
9.46M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
29.29M
Change in Working Capital :
- 59963.00K
Accounts Receivables:
39.70M
Other Working Capital:
- 12325.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
90.36M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 171193.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 17859.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 634705.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
534.08M
1.71B
2.24B
156.53M
78.52M
115.07M
2.59B
733.16M
-
-
-
-
110.71M
843.87M
-
3.43B
54.92M
41.29M
-
131.84M
377.92M
605.96M
954.10M
1.31B
2.43B
-
3.03B
1.21M
- 5678534.00K
- 38065.0K
6.12B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
1.55B
401.17M
3.43B
-
995.39M
461.3M
505.22M
- 75.00K
- 147419.00K
-
-
-
-
34.96M
34.96M
- 2238.00K
- 285894.00K
536.26M
822.15M
- 171193.00K
- 17859.00K
- 189052.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
ALNY
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$214.16
$222.12
$230.38
$238.94
$247.83