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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Ally Financial Inc. (XNYS:ALLY) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
ALLY
Name:
ALLY FINANCIAL INC. (XNYS:ALLY)
Sector:
695.00M
Industry:
Credit Services
CEO:
Mr. Jeffrey Brown
Total Employees:
10,500
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -96.77% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF ALLY FINANCIAL INC.(ALLY) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND CREDIT SERVICES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
32.69
One Month Price Target:
$32.93
Six Month Price Target :
$34.11
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$35.53
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$32.52
Price Upper limit ($) :
$32.9
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$30.42
This week:
$27.61
This month :
$22.54
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
9.91B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
308.53M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
17.64%
-23.21%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$43.23
$38.39
$22.15
$26.99
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$36.81
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$35.78
$28.55
$29.60
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
ALLY
Sharpe Ratio:
1.63%
Comparison:
ALLY, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -12.49% lower than the industry
& is -28.63% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
ALLY
Daily returns:
0.06%
Weekly returns:
0.32%
Monthly returns:
1.29%
Yearly returns:
19.06%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -18.95% below industry average
Classification:
ALLY, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.38
Statistical test of Returns:
ALLY has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.41%
Weekly Volatility:
7.63%
Monthly Volatility:
15.26%
Yearly Volatility:
52.88%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.72%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -78.99% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.95%
Weekly VaR:
-15.53%
Monthly VaR:
-31.06%
How Much Can the price of
ALLY
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-27%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$23.95
This translates to price declining to:
$4.90
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
ALLY is a 119.23% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 87.82% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 3.43% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
ALLY
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.29
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.743
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.051
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.804
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.04
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.067
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.885
Beta is 46.21% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.332
Beta is -2.81% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
16.35%
Sustainable growth rate is -51.55% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.034
Alpha is -49.45% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 218% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
ALLY
Equity cost of capital:
0.120
Equity cost of capital is -2.09% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
7.46%
Before-tax cost of debt:
8.78%
After-tax cost of debt:
6.94%
Overall debt rating:
Non-investment grade (junk/speculative grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
6.94%
WACC is 41.15% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$28.06
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
0.65
Annual revenue growth rate is -64.03% below industry average
EPS:
$8.19
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
24.38%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -2.70% lower than the Credit Services industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$14.12
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -100.00%
Equity growth rate per share is -520.06% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$38.53
EBITDA per share
$21.63
Valuation Analysis Today of
ALLY
P/E Ratio:
4.6
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
114.32
P/E ratio is -95.98% lower than main peers & is -62.14% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $99.41
ALLY is -67.11% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $194.13
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $20.56
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.17
Price to sales ratio is -77.59% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
0.65
Price to free cash flow: 2.32
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
174.23%
Net income growth rate is 978.71% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 4.52%
Dividend yeild: 3.36%
Previous Dividend: $0.30
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.30
Previous Dividend: $1.10
Expected next dividend best case: $0.34
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.26
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.22
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 6.33%
Expected next dividend payment date: 15/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 08/01/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 07/12/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 16/05/2022
Previous dividend record date: 05/02/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 13/04/2022
Dividend History:
2022-04-29--$0.30
2021-10-29--$0.25
2021-04-29--$0.19
2022-01-31--$0.30
2021-07-30--$0.25
2021-01-29--$0.19
Dividend growth rate is -166.16% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
77.14%
Net debt to equity ratio:
104.33%
Debt to assets ratio:
6.45%
Net debt to assets ratio:
8.73%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -91.73% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
3.8
Interest coverage ratio is -61.35% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-30.01%
Annual debt growth is -161% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 15.75%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.673
Statistical significance of correlation:
ALLY has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.561
Stock price is 20.05% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.561
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.023
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.045
Kurtosis
8.126
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.417
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
ALLY
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
0.00%
-
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Effective Tax Rate:
20.84%
Effective tax rate is -3.74% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
18.94%
Return on equity (ROE) is -55.33% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
1.58%
Return on assets (ROA) is -73.86% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.1x
Current Ratio:
0
-
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 4.6 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
824.5K
Each employee generates 14% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
635.6K
Each employee generates 52% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
278.0K
Each employee generates 15% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
66.2K
Each employee generates 13% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
4.9M
Each employee generates 13% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
ALLY
Markel Corporation (XNYS:MKL)
FRANKLIN RESOURCES, INC. (XNYS:BEN)
FACTSET RESEARCH SYSTEMS INC. (XNYS:FDS)
KB Financial Group Inc. (XKRX:105560)
ATH
BROWN & BROWN, INC. (XNYS:BRO)
FIDELITY NATIONAL FINANCIAL, INC. (XNYS:FNF)
W. R. BERKLEY CORPORATION (XNYS:WRB)
-
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�21%
Buy�29%
Hold�17%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
8.66B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
-
-
2.00B
2.17B
174.00M
-
-
8.87B
1.76B
1.23B
6.67B
-
2.92B
3.69B
770.00M
2.92B
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
339.00M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
-
Change in Working Capital :
389.00M
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
22.00M
Other Non-Cash Items:
258.00M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
1.64B
Investments in PP&E:
- 946000.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 4427000.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
3.93B
33.16B
37.09B
946.00M
-
-
-
12.04B
822.00M
121.00M
38.22B
-
-
51.20B
235.50B
184.30B
1.08B
8.12B
-
-
-
9.20B
11.89B
-
12.06B
171.75B
168.88B
21.73B
- 1076000.00K
- 1791000.0K
- 5772000.00K
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
-
15.41B
184.30B
71.38B
20.01B
16.1B
2.59B
- 2901000.00K
- 5685000.00K
- 2222000.00K
-
- 584000.00K
- 132000.00K
5.93B
2.99B
2.00M
- 1055000.00K
4.62B
5.67B
1.64B
- 946000.00K
695.00M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
ALLY
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$35.71
$353.34
$384.08
$417.50
$453.82