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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Allogene Therapeutics, Inc. (XNAS:ALLO) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
ALLO
Name:
ALLOGENE THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:ALLO)
Sector:
- 70139.00K
Industry:
Biotechnology
CEO:
Dr. David Chang
Total Employees:
344
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A
Technological advancement compared to industry is 162.52% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF ALLOGENE THERAPEUTICS, INC.(ALLO) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BIOTECHNOLOGY INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
14.2
One Month Price Target:
$14.24
Six Month Price Target :
$14.44
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$14.69
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$14.09
Price Upper limit ($) :
$14.32
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$12.81
This week:
$11.09
This month :
$7.98
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
1.99B
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
143.81M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
35.96%
-46.14%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$20.66
$17.71
$7.74
$10.69
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$16.76
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$16.13
$11.63
$12.27
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
ALLO
Sharpe Ratio:
0.27%
Comparison:
ALLO, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -86.25% lower than the industry
& is -88.27% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
ALLO
Daily returns:
0.02%
Weekly returns:
0.11%
Monthly returns:
0.43%
Yearly returns:
25.22%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -79.43% below industry average
Classification:
ALLO, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.66
Statistical test of Returns:
ALLO has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
4.78%
Weekly Volatility:
10.69%
Monthly Volatility:
21.37%
Yearly Volatility:
74.04%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
2.44%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -48.96% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-9.79%
Weekly VaR:
-21.90%
Monthly VaR:
-43.80%
How Much Can the price of
ALLO
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-38%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$8.73
This translates to price declining to:
$2.13
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
ALLO is a 209.11% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 164.82% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 0.52% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
ALLO
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.51
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.575
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.812
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
-
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.164
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.749
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1
Beta is -48.79% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.152
Beta is -55.52% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.015
Alpha is -110.36% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -94% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
ALLO
Equity cost of capital:
0.067
Equity cost of capital is -39.68% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
-
Before-tax cost of debt:
0.71%
After-tax cost of debt:
0.56%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
0.56%
WACC is -31.39% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$0.00
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.39
-
EPS:
-$2.20
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
1.08%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -89.17% lower than the Biotechnology industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$0.48
EBITDA per share
-$2.02
Valuation Analysis Today of
ALLO
P/E Ratio:
-
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
311.31
-
-
ALLO is -107.19% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
9961.25
Price to sales ratio is 24493.17% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.39
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-70.78%
Net income growth rate is -200.28% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
8.07%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-1.81%
Debt to assets ratio:
7.16%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-1.60%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -83.02% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-591.71
Interest coverage ratio is 400.00% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
30.02%
Annual debt growth is -78% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.382
Statistical significance of correlation:
ALLO has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.34
Stock price is 12.22% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.34
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.038
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.105
Kurtosis
18.306
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.74
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
ALLO
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-147601.95%
Operating profit margin is 34331.58% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Effective Tax Rate:
-
-
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-35.53%
Return on equity (ROE) is -38.03% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-31.50%
Return on assets (ROA) is 54.38% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.1x
Current Ratio:
12.74
Current ratio is 57.36% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 5.9 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-7.34%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
0.6K
Each employee generates -100% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
- 846.3K
Each employee generates -320% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 883.3K
Each employee generates -790% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 203.9K
Each employee generates -238% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
1.4M
Each employee generates -238% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 14.09%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -492.69% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
ALLO
ICU MEDICAL, INC. (XNAS:ICUI)
I-MAB (XNAS:IMAB)
PREMIER, INC. (XNAS:PINC)
SAGE THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:SAGE)
COVETRUS, INC. (XNAS:CVET)
ALIGNMENT HEALTHCARE, INC. (XNAS:ALHC)
BEAM THERAPEUTICS INC. (XNAS:BEAM)
LIVANOVA PLC (XNAS:LIVN)
CAREDX, INC. (XNAS:CDNA)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�8%
Hold�4%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
205.00K
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
-
225.15M
77.64M
77.64M
-
-
302.79M
1.70M
492.00K
12.23M
- 291120.00K
- 302584.00K
- 303840.00K
- 303840.00K
-
- 303840.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
3.69M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
22.32M
Change in Working Capital :
- 19992.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
- 17.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
5.60M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 68237.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 1902.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 89155.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
84.51M
364.54M
449.05M
-
-
20.69M
469.74M
177.26M
-
-
298.30M
-
19.33M
494.89M
-
964.63M
8.71M
-
-
406.00K
27.76M
36.88M
69.04M
3.49M
72.53M
-
109.40M
143.00K
- 983198.00K
- 9249.0K
1.85B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
302.79M
855.23M
964.63M
662.83M
69.04M
- 15479.0K
68.68M
-
- 22377.00K
-
-
-
-
1.81M
1.81M
-
- 88800.00K
94.81M
183.61M
- 68237.00K
- 1902.00K
- 70139.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
ALLO
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$14.74
$15.24
$15.77
$16.31
$16.87