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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Alliance Resource Partners Unt (XNAS:ARLP) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
ARLP
Name:
ALLIANCE RESOURCE PARTNERS UNT (XNAS:ARLP)
Sector:
29.88M
Industry:
Thermal Coal
CEO:
Mr. Joseph Craft
Total Employees:
-
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
-
-
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF ALLIANCE RESOURCE PARTNERS UNT(ARLP) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND THERMAL COAL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
25.65
One Month Price Target:
$25.83
Six Month Price Target :
$26.74
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$27.82
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$25.49
Price Upper limit ($) :
$25.94
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$23.
This week:
$19.73
This month :
$13.8
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
-
Market Cap Classification:
Large Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
-
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
71.97%
-28.15%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$37.93
$32.20
$13.37
$19.10
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$30.33
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$29.11
$20.95
$22.19
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
ARLP
Sharpe Ratio:
4.86%
Comparison:
ARLP, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -3.08% lower than the industry
& ratio is 113.42% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
ARLP
Daily returns:
0.26%
Weekly returns:
1.30%
Monthly returns:
5.19%
Yearly returns:
67.06%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -7.07% below industry average
Classification:
ARLP, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.29
Statistical test of Returns:
ARLP has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
5.16%
Weekly Volatility:
11.53%
Monthly Volatility:
23.06%
Yearly Volatility:
79.87%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
4.19%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -18.78% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-10.33%
Weekly VaR:
-23.10%
Monthly VaR:
-46.19%
How Much Can the price of
ARLP
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-38%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$15.94
This translates to price declining to:
$3.85
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
ARLP is a 226.02% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 179.30% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -2.93% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
ARLP
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.26
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.929
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.313
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.875
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.903
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.136
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
27.645
Beta is -95.45% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.929
Beta is 35.50% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
13.79%
Sustainable growth rate is 100.00% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.505
Alpha is -12.16% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 3217% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
ARLP
Equity cost of capital:
0.118
Equity cost of capital is 23.74% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
8.18%
Before-tax cost of debt:
8.60%
After-tax cost of debt:
6.79%
Overall debt rating:
Non-investment grade (junk/speculative grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
6.79%
WACC is 21.05% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
-
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.16
Annual revenue growth rate is 25.37% above the industry average
EPS:
$1.45
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-23.77%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 0.00% lower than the Thermal Coal industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$2.36
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -80.56%
Equity growth rate per share is -13.86% lower than the industry
Debt per share
-
EBITDA per share
-
Valuation Analysis Today of
ARLP
P/E Ratio:
-
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
26.11
-
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $9.79
ARLP is 162.10% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $176.17
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $91.07
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.03
Price to sales ratio is -29.67% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.16
Price to free cash flow: 10.85
Price to free cash flow ratio is -95.72% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-50.03%
Net income growth rate is 36.75% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 17.23%
Dividend yeild: 3.51%
Previous Dividend: $0.35
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.35
Previous Dividend: $0.90
Expected next dividend best case: $0.54
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.16
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.28
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 10.68%
Expected next dividend payment date: 08/11/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 08/04/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 25/07/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 13/05/2022
Previous dividend record date: 05/06/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 26/04/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-05--$0.35
2021-11-04--$0.20
2021-05-06--$0.10
2022-02-04--$0.25
2021-08-05--$0.10
2020-02-06--$0.40
Dividend growth rate is -132.29% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
53.84%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-
Debt to assets ratio:
19.30%
Net debt to assets ratio:
14.36%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -65.59% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
7.06
Interest coverage ratio is 38.53% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
0.00%
-
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 1.08%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.382
Statistical significance of correlation:
ARLP has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.292
Stock price is 30.88% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.292
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.068
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.204
Kurtosis
58.206
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
3.811
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
ARLP
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
80%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
15.81%
Operating profit margin is 4.85% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
80%
Effective Tax Rate:
18.44%
Effective tax rate is 2689.42% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
25.70%
Return on equity (ROE) is -1080.85% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
8.54%
Return on assets (ROA) is 180.58% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.2x
Current Ratio:
2
Current ratio is 6.25% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-24
Cash conversion cycle is -219.24% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 3.1 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
-
-
EBITDA generated per employee:
-
-
Profit generated per employee:
-
-
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
-
-
Assets/Capital per employee
-
-
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
ARLP
HIGHPEAK ENERGY, INC. (XNAS:HPK)
XOG
WEATHERFORD INTERNATIONAL PUBLIC LIMITED COMPANY (XNAS:WFRD)
VIPER ENERGY PARTNERS UNT (XNAS:VNOM)
TELLURIAN INC. (XNYS:TELL)
PATTERSON-UTI ENERGY, INC. (XNAS:PTEN)
CLEAN ENERGY FUELS CORP. (XNAS:CLNE)
OASIS MIDSTREAM PARTNERS UNT (XNAS:OMP)
RENEWABLE ENERGY GROUP, INC. (XNAS:REGI)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�13%
Hold�8%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
1.71B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
1.37B
343.96M
-
73.25M
73.25M
-
-
73.25M
106.00K
38.50M
-
271.70M
270.71M
190.06M
234.02M
43.14M
190.06M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
-
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
-
Change in Working Capital :
-
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
89.04M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
89.04M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
128.19M
-
128.19M
157.14M
95.75M
23.62M
404.70M
1.71B
4.37M
-
26.19M
-
83.51M
1.82B
-
2.23B
92.90M
18.16M
15.21M
-
91.00M
202.06M
429.59M
322.89M
790.10M
-
992.15M
-
-
- 63439.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
1.44B
-
992.15M
-
447.75M
319.6M
-
- 45525.00K
- 45525.00K
- 4675.00K
-
-
- 32750.00K
- 298.00K
- 37723.00K
-
5.79M
128.19M
122.40M
89.04M
- 59153.00K
29.88M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
-
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
ARLP
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$26.34
$28.57
$30.99
$33.61
$36.45