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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Allegiant Travel Company (XNAS:ALGT) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
ALGT
Name:
ALLEGIANT TRAVEL COMPANY (XNAS:ALGT)
Sector:
104.34M
Industry:
-
CEO:
Mr. Maurice Gallagher
Total Employees:
5,226
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
-
-
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF ALLEGIANT TRAVEL COMPANY(ALGT) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND - INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
95.53
One Month Price Target:
$96.33
Six Month Price Target :
$100.36
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$105.18
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$94.9
Price Upper limit ($) :
$96.14
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$88.
This week:
$78.68
This month :
$61.83
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
1.73B
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
18.18M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
29.24%
-28.33%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$130.52
$114.64
$60.54
$76.42
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$109.47
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$106.08
$81.55
$84.98
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
ALGT
Sharpe Ratio:
-0.52%
Comparison:
ALGT, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
& is -122.64% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
ALGT
Daily returns:
-0.01%
Weekly returns:
-0.05%
Monthly returns:
-0.22%
Yearly returns:
Comparison of returns:
Classification:
ALGT, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.66
Statistical test of Returns:
ALGT has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.84%
Weekly Volatility:
8.58%
Monthly Volatility:
17.15%
Yearly Volatility:
59.41%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
2.29%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -40.40% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-7.89%
Weekly VaR:
-17.64%
Monthly VaR:
-35.27%
How Much Can the price of
ALGT
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-31%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$65.60
This translates to price declining to:
$14.33
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
ALGT is a 148.96% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 113.28% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
ALGT
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.50
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.128
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.595
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.715
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.146
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.109
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.15
Beta is 30.69% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.161
-
Alpha is -1023% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
ALGT
Equity cost of capital:
0.134
Equity cost of capital is above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
6.39%
Before-tax cost of debt:
3.66%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.89%
Overall debt rating:
Upper medium A grade (third highest grade),CO8<=0.0429,"Medium BBB grade (Fourth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.89%
-
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$106.09
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.42
-
EPS:
$7.70
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$26.96
-
-
Debt per share
$95.96
EBITDA per share
$21.14
Valuation Analysis Today of
ALGT
P/E Ratio:
37.19
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
9109.99
-
-
-
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $16.55
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $10.41
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.9
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.42
Price to free cash flow: 3.54
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-
Dividend Analysis
-
Dividend yeild: 1.47%
Previous Dividend: $0.70
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.70
Previous Dividend: $1.40
-
-
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.70
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.00%
-
-
-
Previous dividend payment date: 03/12/2020
Previous dividend record date: 03/02/2020
Previous dividend declaration date: 30/01/2020
Dividend History:
2020-02-28--$0.70
--$0.00
--$0.00
2019-11-21--$0.70
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
142.74%
Net debt to equity ratio:
122.84%
Debt to assets ratio:
41.23%
Net debt to assets ratio:
35.48%
-
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
5.51
-
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-
-
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 2.10%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.627
Statistical significance of correlation:
ALGT has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.01
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.022
Kurtosis
12.363
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.103
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
ALGT
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
67%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
12.74%
-
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
67%
Effective Tax Rate:
22.71%
-
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
11.22%
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
3.24%
Financial Leverage:
1.7x
Current Ratio:
1.59
-
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 19.8 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
369.1K
-
EBITDA generated per employee:
73.6K
-
Profit generated per employee:
26.2K
-
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
20.0K
-
Assets/Capital per employee
539.8K
-
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
ALGT
MERCURY SYSTEMS, INC. (XNAS:MRCY)
CASELLA WASTE SYSTEMS, INC. (XNAS:CWST)
AAON, INC. (XNAS:AAON)
RENT-A-CENTER, INC. (XNAS:RCII)
KRATOS DEFENSE & SECURITY SOLUTIONS, INC. (XNAS:KTOS)
FRANKLIN ELECTRIC CO., INC. (XNAS:FELE)
WERNER ENTERPRISES, INC. (XNAS:WERN)
BEACON ROOFING SUPPLY, INC. (XNAS:BECN)
KORNIT DIGITAL LTD (XNAS:KRNT)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�13%
Buy�0%
Hold�42%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
1.93B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
1.61B
323.49M
-
-
83.48M
83.48M
- 18095.00K
65.39M
2.12M
69.79M
137.26M
384.44M
245.70M
137.10M
177.38M
40.28M
137.10M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
46.34M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
-
Change in Working Capital :
131.24M
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
- 13927.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
6.30M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
176.00M
Investments in PP&E:
- 71659.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 302161.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
403.09M
808.95M
1.21B
91.07M
36.10M
71.29M
1.41B
2.55B
-
-
-
-
267.98M
2.82B
-
4.23B
59.14M
159.76M
-
452.62M
216.69M
888.22M
1.74B
31.55M
2.12B
-
3.01B
25.00K
1.16B
5.4M
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
1.67B
1.22B
4.23B
-
1.90B
1.5B
311.33M
- 47266.00K
- 109754.00K
- 37335.00K
-
-
-
- 308.00K
- 37643.00K
-
28.60M
429.31M
400.70M
176.00M
- 71659.00K
104.34M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
-
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
ALGT
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$78.89
$86.85
$95.63
$105.29
$115.93