_edited.png)
RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Allegiance Bancshares, Inc. (XNAS:ABTX) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
ABTX
Name:
ALLEGIANCE BANCSHARES, INC. (XNAS:ABTX)
Sector:
15.87M
Industry:
Banks�Regional
CEO:
Mr. Steven Retzloff
Total Employees:
594
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -48.07% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF ALLEGIANCE BANCSHARES, INC.(ABTX) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BANKS�REGIONAL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
42.15
One Month Price Target:
$42.37
Six Month Price Target :
$43.49
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$44.83
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$41.98
Price Upper limit ($) :
$42.38
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$39.76
This week:
$36.81
This month :
$31.47
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
823.76M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
19.96M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
17.01%
-12.44%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$53.23
$48.14
$31.07
$36.16
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$46.48
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$45.39
$37.81
$38.91
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
ABTX
Sharpe Ratio:
1.85%
Comparison:
ABTX, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 50.56% higher than the industry
& is -18.85% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
ABTX
Daily returns:
0.06%
Weekly returns:
0.30%
Monthly returns:
1.21%
Yearly returns:
10.91%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 32.92% above industry average
Classification:
ABTX, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.34
Statistical test of Returns:
ABTX has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.79%
Weekly Volatility:
6.24%
Monthly Volatility:
12.47%
Yearly Volatility:
43.21%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.54%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -80.60% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.67%
Weekly VaR:
-12.67%
Monthly VaR:
-25.34%
How Much Can the price of
ABTX
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-22%
Worst case (decline):
-87.80%
This translates to price declining to:
$32.99
This translates to price declining to:
$5.14
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
ABTX is a 78.88% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 53.25% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -2.37% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
ABTX
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.95
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.783
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.108
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.778
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.67
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.955
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.782
Beta is 20.89% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.964
Beta is -1.84% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
9.08%
Sustainable growth rate is -0.55% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.049
Alpha is 320.10% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 310% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
ABTX
Equity cost of capital:
0.096
Equity cost of capital is -1.25% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
7.92%
Before-tax cost of debt:
11.37%
After-tax cost of debt:
8.98%
Overall debt rating:
Non-investment grade (junk/speculative grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
8.98%
WACC is -16.34% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$11.97
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.12
Annual revenue growth rate is 8.07% above the industry average
EPS:
$4.03
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
17.06%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 41.89% higher than the Banks�Regional industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$4.77
-
-
Debt per share
$9.97
EBITDA per share
$6.56
Valuation Analysis Today of
ABTX
P/E Ratio:
11.38
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
20.67
P/E ratio is -44.95% lower than main peers & is -8.31% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $50.01
ABTX is -15.71% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $37.44
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $9.73
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
3.52
Price to sales ratio is -17.65% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.12
Price to free cash flow: 8.84
Price to free cash flow ratio is -61.76% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
65.80%
Net income growth rate is 19.48% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 3.47%
Dividend yeild: 1.23%
Previous Dividend: $0.14
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.14
Previous Dividend: $0.52
Expected next dividend best case: $0.15
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.13
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.12
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 4.07%
Expected next dividend payment date: 13/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 29/08/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 27/07/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 15/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 31/05/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 28/04/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-27--$0.14
2021-11-29--$0.12
2021-05-27--$0.12
2022-02-25--$0.14
2021-08-30--$0.12
2021-02-25--$0.12
Dividend growth rate is -82.72% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
26.46%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-66.55%
Debt to assets ratio:
2.78%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-7.00%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -98.33% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
5.79
Interest coverage ratio is 598.58% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-24.65%
Annual debt growth is -7883% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.588
Statistical significance of correlation:
ABTX has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.501
Stock price is 17.39% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.501
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.037
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.06
Kurtosis
4.625
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.269
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
ABTX
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
0.00%
-
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Effective Tax Rate:
18.51%
Effective tax rate is -14.08% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
10.93%
Return on equity (ROE) is -8.36% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
1.15%
Return on assets (ROA) is -50.11% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
0
-
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 4.8 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.17%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
402.2K
Each employee generates 6% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
220.5K
Each employee generates -2% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
138.4K
Each employee generates -2% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
26.7K
Each employee generates -68% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
3.5M
Each employee generates -68% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
ABTX
UNITED FIRE GROUP, INC. (XNAS:UFCS)
STATE AUTO FINANCIAL CORPORATION (XNAS:STFC)
BlackRock TCP Capital Corp. (XNAS:TCPC)
THE FIRST BANCSHARES, INC. (XNAS:FBMS)
COMMUNITY TRUST BANCORP, INC. (XNAS:CTBI)
HORIZON BANCORP, INC. (XNAS:HBNC)
NICOLET BANKSHARES, INC. (XNYS:NIC)
HARBORONE BANCORP, INC. (XNAS:HONE)
SLR INVESTMENT CORP. (XNAS:SLRC)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�0%
Hold�8%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
238.88M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
-
-
105.17M
107.03M
1.86M
-
-
250.66M
22.62M
7.48M
130.97M
-
82.20M
100.88M
18.68M
82.20M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
1.78M
Differed Income Tax :
47.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
959.00K
Change in Working Capital :
- 9638.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 26190.00K
Other Working Capital:
767.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
4.25M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
16.06M
Investments in PP&E:
- 184.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 763586.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
699.38M
1.79B
2.49B
31.51M
-
-
-
62.17M
223.64M
13.91M
1.79B
-
-
2.09B
9.24B
7.15B
3.09M
-
-
-
-
-
198.94M
-
198.94M
6.60B
6.40B
20.38M
282.90M
- 63618.0K
512.28M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
-
751.94M
7.15B
3.58B
198.94M
- 500447.0K
640.44M
- 63268.00K
- 186601.00K
-
569.00K
-
- 2853.00K
114.70M
112.42M
-
- 58125.00K
699.38M
757.51M
16.06M
- 184.00K
15.87M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
ABTX
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$45.05
$70.00
$74.44
$79.18
$84.21