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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Alerus Financial Corporation (XNAS:ALRS) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
ALRS
Name:
ALERUS FINANCIAL CORPORATION (XNAS:ALRS)
Sector:
34.72M
Industry:
Banks�Regional
CEO:
Mr. Randy Louis Newman CFP
Total Employees:
779
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Technological advancement compared to industry is 724.40% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF ALERUS FINANCIAL CORPORATION(ALRS) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BANKS�REGIONAL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
23.31
One Month Price Target:
$23.4
Six Month Price Target :
$23.87
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$24.44
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$23.22
Price Upper limit ($) :
$23.42
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$22.11
This week:
$20.63
This month :
$17.96
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
460.70M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
19.99M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
13.77%
-14.56%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$28.86
$26.32
$17.76
$20.30
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$25.49
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$24.95
$21.12
$21.67
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
ALRS
Sharpe Ratio:
1.13%
Comparison:
ALRS, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -7.89% lower than the industry
& is -50.35% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
ALRS
Daily returns:
0.04%
Weekly returns:
0.19%
Monthly returns:
0.75%
Yearly returns:
10.91%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -17.88% below industry average
Classification:
ALRS, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.56
Statistical test of Returns:
ALRS has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.52%
Weekly Volatility:
5.63%
Monthly Volatility:
11.26%
Yearly Volatility:
39.00%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.79%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -68.79% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.13%
Weekly VaR:
-11.48%
Monthly VaR:
-22.95%
How Much Can the price of
ALRS
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-20%
Worst case (decline):
-79.51%
This translates to price declining to:
$18.68
This translates to price declining to:
$4.78
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
ALRS is a 62.00% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 38.79% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -11.88% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
ALRS
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.72
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.564
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.797
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.629
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.481
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.448
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.745
Beta is -3.26% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.964
Beta is -25.22% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
12.07%
Sustainable growth rate is 32.24% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.009
Alpha is -24.68% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 56% compared to market & is healthy
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
ALRS
Equity cost of capital:
0.081
Equity cost of capital is -17.07% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
7.05%
Before-tax cost of debt:
9.03%
After-tax cost of debt:
7.13%
Overall debt rating:
Non-investment grade (junk/speculative grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
7.13%
WACC is -29.77% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$10.96
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.42
Annual revenue growth rate is -83.60% below industry average
EPS:
-
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
85.99%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 615.24% higher than the Banks�Regional industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$7.43
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 15.45%
Equity growth rate per share is -60.09% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$3.14
EBITDA per share
$3.83
Valuation Analysis Today of
ALRS
P/E Ratio:
9.14
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
14.23
P/E ratio is -35.80% lower than main peers & is -26.38% lower than the industry
-
-
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $23.46
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $10.91
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
2.13
Price to sales ratio is -50.28% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.42
Price to free cash flow: 3.14
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
63.07%
Net income growth rate is 14.53% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 5.84%
Dividend yeild: 2.83%
Previous Dividend: $0.18
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.18
Previous Dividend: $0.66
Expected next dividend best case: $0.19
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.17
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.16
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 1.92%
Expected next dividend payment date: 10/06/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 15/09/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 07/08/2022
Previous dividend record date: 17/06/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-16--$0.18
2021-12-22--$0.16
2021-06-17--$0.16
2022-03-17--$0.16
2021-09-16--$0.16
2021-03-18--$0.15
Dividend growth rate is -91.85% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
19.10%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-21.33%
Debt to assets ratio:
1.88%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-2.10%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -98.87% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
13.5
Interest coverage ratio is 1528.50% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-5.09%
Annual debt growth is -1706% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.09%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.41
Statistical significance of correlation:
ALRS has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.501
Stock price is -18.17% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.501
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.002
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.002
Kurtosis
3.863
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.041
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
ALRS
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
0.00%
-
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Effective Tax Rate:
23.48%
Effective tax rate is 8.97% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
14.51%
Return on equity (ROE) is 21.59% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
1.43%
Return on assets (ROA) is -38.02% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
0
-
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 2.1 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
0.79%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
281.3K
Each employee generates -26% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
98.2K
Each employee generates -57% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
61.2K
Each employee generates -57% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
44.6K
Each employee generates -46% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
1.6M
Each employee generates -46% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
ALRS
Amalgamated Bank (XNAS:AMAL)
SENIOR CONNECT ACQUISITION CORP. I (XNAS:SNRH)
MAAC
WATERSTONE FINANCIAL, INC. (XNAS:WSBF)
BUSINESS FIRST BANCSHARES, INC. (XNAS:BFST)
SVAC
MARLIN TECHNOLOGY CORPORATION (XNAS:FINM)
MIDWESTONE FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. (XNAS:MOFG)
TCV Acquisition Corp (XNAS:TCVA)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: -
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
219.11M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
-
-
112.24M
115.35M
3.11M
-
-
92.40M
5.67M
8.54M
76.48M
-
47.65M
62.27M
14.62M
47.65M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
2.06M
Differed Income Tax :
854.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
378.00K
Change in Working Capital :
23.51M
Accounts Receivables:
21.00K
Other Working Capital:
- 202.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 2144.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
34.85M
Investments in PP&E:
- 130.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 95640.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
132.83M
866.33M
999.17M
8.52M
-
-
-
20.98M
31.49M
20.97M
1.21B
-
-
1.28B
4.62B
3.34B
-
-
-
-
-
-
62.75M
-
62.75M
3.07B
3.01B
17.29M
260.97M
- 42324.0K
92.57M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
-
328.51M
3.34B
2.07B
62.75M
- 70080.0K
43.03M
- 59853.00K
- 112592.00K
- 59.00K
-
- 607.00K
- 2784.00K
- 28284.00K
- 31734.00K
-
- 109479.00K
132.83M
242.31M
34.85M
- 130.00K
34.72M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
ALRS
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$18.33
$19.22
$20.15
$21.12
$22.15