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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Alector, Inc. (XNAS:ALEC) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
ALEC
Name:
ALECTOR, INC. (XNAS:ALEC)
Sector:
134.40M
Industry:
Biotechnology
CEO:
DR. Arnon Rosenthal
Total Employees:
269
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -41.69% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF ALECTOR, INC.(ALEC) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BIOTECHNOLOGY INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
10.46
One Month Price Target:
$10.52
Six Month Price Target :
$10.83
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$11.19
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$10.37
Price Upper limit ($) :
$10.56
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$9.31
This week:
$7.89
This month :
$5.32
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
817.38M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
82.56M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
57.12%
-23.57%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$15.79
$13.36
$5.13
$7.56
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$12.56
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$12.04
$8.35
$8.88
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
ALEC
Sharpe Ratio:
0.81%
Comparison:
ALEC, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -58.46% lower than the industry
& is -64.56% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
ALEC
Daily returns:
0.05%
Weekly returns:
0.26%
Monthly returns:
1.05%
Yearly returns:
25.22%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -50.27% below industry average
Classification:
ALEC, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.97
Statistical test of Returns:
ALEC has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
5.38%
Weekly Volatility:
12.02%
Monthly Volatility:
24.04%
Yearly Volatility:
83.27%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
3.16%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -41.25% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-10.99%
Weekly VaR:
-24.57%
Monthly VaR:
-49.14%
How Much Can the price of
ALEC
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-43%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$5.98
This translates to price declining to:
$1.57
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
ALEC is a 246.80% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 197.11% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 13.06% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
ALEC
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.04
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.096
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.55
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.906
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.265
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.159
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.374
Beta is -24.25% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.152
Beta is -9.61% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.023
Alpha is -84.05% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 144% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
ALEC
Equity cost of capital:
0.103
Equity cost of capital is -6.87% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
8.95%
Before-tax cost of debt:
-
After-tax cost of debt:
-
Overall debt rating:
-
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
-
-
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$2.75
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
3.23
Annual revenue growth rate is -2.61% below industry average
EPS:
-$0.35
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-35.92%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -459.90% lower than the Biotechnology industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$5.43
-
-
Debt per share
$0.47
EBITDA per share
-$0.24
Valuation Analysis Today of
ALEC
P/E Ratio:
21.81
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
104.48
P/E ratio is -79.12% lower than main peers & is -75.69% lower than the industry
-
ALEC is -133.31% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
3.8
Price to sales ratio is -90.63% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
3.23
Price to free cash flow: 1.93
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-38.87%
Net income growth rate is -155.07% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
14.48%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-152.51%
Debt to assets ratio:
4.06%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-42.75%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -90.37% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-
-
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
0.00%
-
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.389
Statistical significance of correlation:
ALEC has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.34
Stock price is 14.54% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.34
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.003
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.008
Kurtosis
19.67
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
1.49
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
ALEC
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-12.68%
Operating profit margin is -97.04% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Effective Tax Rate:
-2.71%
Effective tax rate is -147.43% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-10.76%
Return on equity (ROE) is -81.24% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-3.01%
Return on assets (ROA) is -85.22% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
6.24
Current ratio is -22.97% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 14.3 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-41.49%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
845.5K
Each employee generates -48% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
- 72.3K
Each employee generates -119% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 107.0K
Each employee generates -184% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
499.6K
Each employee generates 239% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
236.2K
Each employee generates 239% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 20.74%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -678.15% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
ALEC
CULLINAN ONCOLOGY, INC. (XNAS:CGEM)
Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc. (XNAS:AUPH)
ENDO INTERNATIONAL PUBLIC LIMITED COMPANY (OTCM:ENDPQ)
PROTAGONIST THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:PTGX)
FORMA THERAPEUTICS HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:FMTX)
SNDL Inc. (XNAS:SNDL)
ORTHOPEDIATRICS CORP. (XNAS:KIDS)
COMPASS PATHWAYS PLC (XNAS:CMPS)
Precigen, Inc. (XNAS:PGEN)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: -
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
227.45M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
-
196.72M
59.58M
59.58M
-
-
256.30M
-
-
8.57M
- 19445.00K
- 28848.00K
- 28775.00K
- 28017.00K
758.00K
- 28775.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
2.26M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
11.94M
Change in Working Capital :
164.94M
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
175.53M
Other Non-Cash Items:
570.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
135.09M
Investments in PP&E:
- 692.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 30114.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
454.62M
413.95M
868.57M
12.82M
-
9.54M
890.93M
56.13M
-
-
-
-
7.40M
63.53M
-
954.46M
6.75M
7.86M
-
95.61M
32.66M
142.88M
38.75M
158.00K
544.04M
-
686.92M
8.00K
- 490994.00K
- 3935.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
256.30M
267.54M
954.46M
-
46.61M
- 408014.0K
18.70M
-
- 12106.00K
-
-
-
-
2.48M
2.48M
-
125.47M
456.09M
330.62M
135.09M
- 692.00K
134.40M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
ALEC
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$11.25
$2.90
$3.10
$3.32
$3.55