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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Albireo Pharma, Inc. (XNAS:ALBO) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
ALBO
Name:
ALBIREO PHARMA, INC. (XNAS:ALBO)
Sector:
- 35644.00K
Industry:
Biotechnology
CEO:
Mr. Ronald Cooper
Total Employees:
130
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is -3.31% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF ALBIREO PHARMA, INC.(ALBO) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BIOTECHNOLOGY INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
17.19
One Month Price Target:
$17.28
Six Month Price Target :
$17.74
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$18.28
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$17.07
Price Upper limit ($) :
$17.34
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$15.58
This week:
$13.58
This month :
$9.98
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
320.08M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
19.61M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
44.76%
-27.48%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$24.67
$21.24
$9.71
$13.14
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$20.13
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$19.39
$14.24
$14.99
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
ALBO
Sharpe Ratio:
1.39%
Comparison:
ALBO, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -28.31% lower than the industry
& is -38.85% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
ALBO
Daily returns:
0.07%
Weekly returns:
0.37%
Monthly returns:
1.46%
Yearly returns:
25.22%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -30.54% below industry average
Classification:
ALBO, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.99
Statistical test of Returns:
ALBO has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
4.60%
Weekly Volatility:
10.29%
Monthly Volatility:
20.58%
Yearly Volatility:
71.30%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.74%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -62.11% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-9.38%
Weekly VaR:
-20.97%
Monthly VaR:
-41.95%
How Much Can the price of
ALBO
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-36%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$10.96
This translates to price declining to:
$2.58
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
ALBO is a 196.05% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 153.63% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -3.19% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
ALBO
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.95
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.852
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.205
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.88
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.993
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.183
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.575
Beta is -39.91% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.152
Beta is -17.83% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.079
Alpha is -44.39% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 502% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
ALBO
Equity cost of capital:
0.096
Equity cost of capital is -12.74% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
8.95%
Before-tax cost of debt:
-148.92%
After-tax cost of debt:
-117.65%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
-117.65%
WACC is -47.93% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$2.32
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.28
Annual revenue growth rate is -83.60% below industry average
EPS:
-$1.75
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-29.45%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -395.07% lower than the Biotechnology industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$0.51
EBITDA per share
-$2.22
Valuation Analysis Today of
ALBO
P/E Ratio:
-
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
1661.64
-
-
ALBO is -110.95% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
7.42
Price to sales ratio is -81.68% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.28
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-55.07%
Net income growth rate is -178.02% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
6.80%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-139.40%
Debt to assets ratio:
3.86%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-79.07%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -90.85% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
2.9
Interest coverage ratio is -102.45% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-100.00%
Annual debt growth is -174% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.366
Statistical significance of correlation:
ALBO has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.34
Stock price is 7.55% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.34
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.033
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.089
Kurtosis
17.559
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.992
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
ALBO
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
282%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-271.24%
Operating profit margin is -36.73% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
282%
Effective Tax Rate:
-11.58%
Effective tax rate is -302.94% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-22.09%
Return on equity (ROE) is -61.47% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-12.53%
Return on assets (ROA) is -38.60% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
7.26
Current ratio is -10.32% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-1711.6
Cash conversion cycle is -421.11% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 0.0 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-10.72%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
349.6K
Each employee generates -78% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
- 334.6K
Each employee generates -187% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 251.8K
Each employee generates -297% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 274.2K
Each employee generates -286% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
250.3K
Each employee generates -286% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 7.48%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -308.57% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
ALBO
RIGEL PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. (XNAS:RIGL)
ACHILLES THERAPEUTICS PLC (XNAS:ACHL)
CORI
CUTERA, INC. (XNAS:CUTR)
ASPIRA WOMEN'S HEALTH INC. (XNAS:AWH)
Inventiva SA (XNAS:IVA)
MIRUM PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. (XNAS:MIRM)
ONTRAK, INC. (XNAS:OTRK)
CLOVIS ONCOLOGY, INC. (XNAS:CLVS)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�13%
Buy�13%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
45.45M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
1.59M
41.43M
84.48M
16.94M
71.15M
-
11.49M
167.12M
-
- 15011.00K
460.00K
- 43493.00K
- 123265.00K
- 32731.00K
- 32731.00K
3.79M
- 32731.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
114.00K
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
3.51M
Change in Working Capital :
- 6565.00K
Accounts Receivables:
1.98M
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
9.97M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 35409.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 235.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
216.66M
-
216.66M
1.28M
1.82M
8.98M
228.73M
837.00K
17.26M
-
-
-
14.44M
32.53M
-
261.26M
6.37M
-
-
-
25.14M
31.51M
10.08M
71.49M
81.57M
-
113.08M
195.00K
- 343284.00K
8.2M
483.05M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
168.71M
148.19M
261.26M
-
10.08M
- 206575.0K
-
-
- 235.00K
-
-
-
-
4.38M
4.38M
- 188.00K
- 31452.00K
216.66M
248.11M
- 35409.00K
- 235.00K
- 35644.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
ALBO
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$18.34
$19.50
$20.74
$22.06
$23.47