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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Albemarle Corporation (XNYS:ALB) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
ALB
Name:
ALBEMARLE CORPORATION (XNYS:ALB)
Sector:
- 25522.00K
Industry:
Specialty Chemicals
CEO:
Mr. Luther Kissam
Total Employees:
6,000
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -79.50% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF ALBEMARLE CORPORATION(ALB) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND SPECIALTY CHEMICALS INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
259.88
One Month Price Target:
$262.09
Six Month Price Target :
$273.16
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$286.44
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$259.05
Price Upper limit ($) :
$262.05
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$242.41
This week:
$220.83
This month :
$181.77
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
30.44B
Market Cap Classification:
Large Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
117.13M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
13.74%
-19.91%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$340.74
$302.46
$179.02
$217.30
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$290.00
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$281.83
$229.66
$237.93
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
ALB
Sharpe Ratio:
7.35%
Comparison:
ALB, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 247.20% higher than the industry
& ratio is 222.66% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
ALB
Daily returns:
0.26%
Weekly returns:
1.29%
Monthly returns:
5.18%
Yearly returns:
24.57%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 152.79% above industry average
Classification:
ALB, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.08
Statistical test of Returns:
ALB has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.40%
Weekly Volatility:
7.60%
Monthly Volatility:
15.20%
Yearly Volatility:
52.65%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
2.53%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -25.42% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.72%
Weekly VaR:
-15.03%
Monthly VaR:
-30.06%
How Much Can the price of
ALB
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-24%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$198.55
This translates to price declining to:
$38.98
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
ALB is a 112.14% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 81.74% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 1.11% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
ALB
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.52
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.12
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.583
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.222
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.053
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.83
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.905
Beta is 68.02% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.164
Beta is 30.60% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.485
Alpha is 261.08% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 3090% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
ALB
Equity cost of capital:
0.136
Equity cost of capital is 21.94% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
10.90%
Before-tax cost of debt:
1.82%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.44%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.44%
WACC is 30.77% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$30.96
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
5.04
Annual revenue growth rate is -71.41% below industry average
EPS:
$2.38
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-40.49%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -4566.37% lower than the Specialty Chemicals industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 25.34%
Equity growth rate per share is 142.38% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$16.95
EBITDA per share
$5.75
Valuation Analysis Today of
ALB
P/E Ratio:
117.16
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
18.9
P/E ratio is 519.91% higher than main peers & is 212.77% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $89.15
ALB is 191.50% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $19.04
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $12.32
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
8.39
Price to sales ratio is 204.22% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
5.04
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-81.83%
Net income growth rate is 48.01% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 16.22%
Dividend yeild: 0.60%
Previous Dividend: $0.40
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.40
Previous Dividend: $1.57
Expected next dividend best case: $0.40
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.39
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.39
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.73%
Expected next dividend payment date: 29/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 09/08/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 07/01/2022
Previous dividend record date: 06/10/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-09--$0.40
2021-12-16--$0.39
2021-06-10--$0.39
2022-03-17--$0.40
2021-09-16--$0.39
2021-03-11--$0.39
Dividend growth rate is -96.45% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
34.08%
Net debt to equity ratio:
34.77%
Debt to assets ratio:
17.39%
Net debt to assets ratio:
17.75%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -67.85% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
14.81
Interest coverage ratio is -29.55% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-29.42%
Annual debt growth is -108% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 7.74%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.601
Statistical significance of correlation:
ALB has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.58
Stock price is 3.70% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.58
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.022
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.044
Kurtosis
3.952
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.471
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
ALB
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
128%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
26.32%
Operating profit margin is -109.35% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
128%
Effective Tax Rate:
28.35%
Effective tax rate is 57.87% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
4.83%
Return on equity (ROE) is -83.20% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
2.46%
Return on assets (ROA) is -6.14% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.2x
Current Ratio:
1.11
Current ratio is -58.56% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-9
Cash conversion cycle is -114.63% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 1.9 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.51%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
604.4K
Each employee generates -19% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
112.2K
Each employee generates 13% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
46.9K
Each employee generates 48% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 4.3K
Each employee generates -89% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
1.5M
Each employee generates -89% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- -8.76%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -183.80% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
ALB
VULCAN MATERIALS COMPANY (XNYS:VMC)
MARTIN MARIETTA MATERIALS, INC. (XNYS:MLM)
Franco-Nevada Corporation (XNYS:FNV)
BARRICK GOLD CORPORATION (XNYS:GOLD)
LyondellBasell Industries NV (XNYS:LYB)
NUCOR CORPORATION (XNYS:NUE)
AVANTOR, INC. (XNYS:AVTR)
CORTEVA, INC. (XNYS:CTVA)
POSCO Holdings Inc. (XNYS:PKX)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�25%
Hold�50%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
3.63B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
2.44B
1.18B
55.47M
-
460.86M
-
-
516.34M
-
45.43M
258.31M
672.99M
954.55M
281.38M
309.97M
87.87M
281.38M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
66.57M
Differed Income Tax :
27.75M
Stock Based Compensation :
4.25M
Change in Working Capital :
- 219397.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
45.46M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
206.18M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
- 146.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
463.33M
-
463.33M
729.96M
1.01B
129.41M
2.34B
6.03B
1.58B
297.41M
937.62M
-
240.28M
9.08B
-
11.42B
845.71M
503.80M
40.13M
-
753.83M
2.10B
1.99B
911.10M
3.28B
-
5.38B
1.17M
3.30B
- 393619.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
2.96B
5.83B
11.21B
-
2.49B
2.0B
3.75M
- 231698.00K
- 228093.00K
- 166615.00K
-
-
- 45637.00K
269.87M
57.62M
- 11649.00K
24.05M
463.33M
439.27M
206.18M
- 231698.00K
- 25522.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
ALB
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$227.20
$250.42
$276.01
$304.21
$335.30