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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Air Transport Services Group, Inc. (XNAS:ATSG) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
ATSG
Name:
AIR TRANSPORT SERVICES GROUP, INC. (XNAS:ATSG)
Sector:
17.42M
Industry:
Integrated Freight & Logistics
CEO:
Mr. Joseph Hete
Total Employees:
5,280
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -147.06% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF AIR TRANSPORT SERVICES GROUP, INC.(ATSG) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND INTEGRATED FREIGHT & LOGISTICS INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
29.54
One Month Price Target:
$29.63
Six Month Price Target :
$30.09
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$30.65
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$29.43
Price Upper limit ($) :
$29.69
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$28.04
This week:
$26.18
This month :
$22.82
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
2.19B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
74.37M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
21.7%
-8.94%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$36.51
$33.30
$22.57
$25.78
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$32.25
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$31.56
$26.82
$27.52
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
ATSG
Sharpe Ratio:
2.45%
Comparison:
ATSG, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -22.01% lower than the industry
& ratio is 7.28% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
ATSG
Daily returns:
0.07%
Weekly returns:
0.35%
Monthly returns:
1.41%
Yearly returns:
21.22%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -20.50% below industry average
Classification:
ATSG, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.89
Statistical test of Returns:
ATSG has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.51%
Weekly Volatility:
5.62%
Monthly Volatility:
11.24%
Yearly Volatility:
38.92%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.30%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -88.24% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.09%
Weekly VaR:
-11.38%
Monthly VaR:
-22.76%
How Much Can the price of
ATSG
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-19%
Worst case (decline):
-78.85%
This translates to price declining to:
$23.83
This translates to price declining to:
$6.25
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
ATSG is a 60.65% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 37.63% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 0.04% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
ATSG
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.56
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.539
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.763
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.321
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.455
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.619
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.021
Beta is -45.43% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.068
Beta is -47.81% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
18.95%
Sustainable growth rate is -31.32% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.099
Alpha is -7.93% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 630% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
ATSG
Equity cost of capital:
0.070
Equity cost of capital is -33.41% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
4.01%
Before-tax cost of debt:
4.17%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.29%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.29%
WACC is -30.26% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$24.80
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.62
Annual revenue growth rate is -2.44% below industry average
EPS:
$3.06
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
43.28%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 13.71% higher than the Integrated Freight & Logistics industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$1.33
-
-
Debt per share
$17.69
EBITDA per share
$8.44
Valuation Analysis Today of
ATSG
P/E Ratio:
11.62
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
18.11
P/E ratio is -35.84% lower than main peers & is -27.57% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $49.09
ATSG is -39.82% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.19
Price to sales ratio is -24.96% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.62
Price to free cash flow: 22.15
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
231.96%
Net income growth rate is 7.12% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
97.15%
Net debt to equity ratio:
95.96%
Debt to assets ratio:
40.02%
Net debt to assets ratio:
39.53%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -79.20% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
11.27
Interest coverage ratio is -69.15% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-8.97%
Annual debt growth is -119% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 6.41%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.378
Statistical significance of correlation:
ATSG has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.551
Stock price is -31.46% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.551
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.021
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.031
Kurtosis
8.678
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.92
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
ATSG
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
91%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
18.12%
Operating profit margin is 269.84% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
91%
Effective Tax Rate:
24.01%
Effective tax rate is 2.63% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
17.65%
Return on equity (ROE) is -45.29% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
7.27%
Return on assets (ROA) is -206.93% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.7x
Current Ratio:
1.04
Current ratio is -49.95% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
10.4
Cash conversion cycle is -98.19% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 0.6 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
0.69%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
349.3K
Each employee generates -65% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
118.8K
Each employee generates 77% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
45.3K
Each employee generates 68% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
3.3K
Each employee generates -70% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
559.8K
Each employee generates -70% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
ATSG
SKYWEST, INC. (XNAS:SKYW)
GIBRALTAR INDUSTRIES, INC. (XNAS:ROCK)
Raven Property Group Limited (MISX:RAVN)
Golden Ocean Group Limited. (XNAS:GOGL)
ICF INTERNATIONAL, INC. (XNAS:ICFI)
NV5 Global, Inc. (XNAS:NVEE)
Lilium NV (XNAS:LILM)
CSW INDUSTRIALS, INC. (XNAS:CSWI)
HILLMAN SOLUTIONS CORP. (XNAS:HLMN)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�8%
Hold�13%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
1.84B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
1.42B
423.52M
-
104.40M
104.40M
-
- 15044.00K
89.36M
29.00K
55.67M
258.10M
627.40M
334.17M
238.93M
311.19M
74.70M
238.93M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
88.25M
Differed Income Tax :
15.29M
Stock Based Compensation :
1.65M
Change in Working Capital :
- 28347.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 11265.00K
Other Working Capital:
- 7100.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 969.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
125.67M
Investments in PP&E:
- 108252.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
35.54M
-
35.54M
216.66M
49.72M
29.23M
331.15M
2.24B
-
-
-
-
211.62M
2.96B
-
3.29B
187.18M
19.47M
-
47.80M
63.05M
317.50M
1.32B
72.87M
1.62B
-
1.93B
743.00K
380.10M
- 61829.0K
1.04B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
1.51B
1.35B
3.29B
-
1.33B
1.3B
-
76.00K
- 108176.00K
- 90100.00K
-
-
-
38.65M
- 51450.00K
-
- 33958.00K
35.54M
69.50M
125.67M
- 108252.00K
17.42M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
ATSG
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$30.80
$53.68
$55.69
$57.77
$59.94